CheesyPoofs Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I look for a WSW for the northern counties in MD in the 3 PM updateAnyone remember when LWX would issue an SPS days in advance of a potential storm? Like if was a Saturday and there was a threat, say, 5 days away, they would issue an SPS with a headline "SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE MIDWEEK..." or something to that effect and of course add that it was too early to go into specifics. Maybe I'm just making this up (lol), but I seem to remember them doing it frequently a long, long time ago (like 2005 and before). As a young weenie a long time ago, it would always signal to me that a storm threat was legit.Anyway, back on topic...NAM time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I look for a WSW for the northern counties in MD in the 3 PM update Didn't happen. That's ok, they are usually a curse anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Why would LWX issue now? This thing is still a ways away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 50s and even 60 degrees for two days before a marginal temp event... Hmmm... I wonder. Translation: Anyone who thinks there will be more than 1-2" of accumulation east of IAD hasn't lived In this area all that long. 50's and even 60 degrees effect on ground that has been frozen for weeks. Hmmmm, I wonder. Translation: very little effect on accumulating snow with the possible exception of temporary issues in the beginning on paved surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Why would LWX issue now? This thing is still a ways away. It's around 36 hours away, which is within the watch timeframe. I'm guessing that they will issue a watch for the northern and western parts of the CWA with the afternoon forecast package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 50's and even 60 degrees effect on ground that has been frozen for weeks. Hmmmm, I wonder. Translation: very little effect on accumulating snow with the possible exception of temporary issues in the beginning on paved surfaces I'd be more concerned with the massive amounts of salt everywhere. It was 7 degrees at night with light snow coming down when we got brushed with the SE storm and it was still turning to water on the roads :[ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF is probably one of the best tools in the svr weather box in the 24-48 hour range but I can't remember a time where it's been all that useful when it comes to snow. It's like SOP for it to ramp way up going into an event and then end up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN311 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAYEVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE.* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z NAM getting precip in here just after midnight tomorrow... that's quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF is probably one of the best tools in the svr weather box in the 24-48 hour range but I can't remember a time where it's been all that useful when it comes to snow. It's like SOP for it to ramp way up going into an event and then end up wrong. Very much so, however you guys are in a great spot for this one. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-MONTGOMERY- HOWARD-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER... FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG... CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG... ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 311 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Anyone remember when LWX would issue an SPS days in advance of a potential storm? Like if was a Saturday and there was a threat, say, 5 days away, they would issue an SPS with a headline "SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE MIDWEEK..." or something to that effect and of course add that it was too early to go into specifics. Maybe I'm just making this up (lol), but I seem to remember them doing it frequently a long, long time ago (like 2005 and before). As a young weenie a long time ago, it would always signal to me that a storm threat was legit. Anyway, back on topic...NAM time Nope, not making it up at all.... you summed it up perfectly. I miss those special weather statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You got it winterwxluv, ground will still be solid frozen and radiating below top 1". Lot of yapping again this time, just like last one, about how we don't kow what is what. This is a classic rain to start, switch to snow n&w of Beltway, city up for grabs but also likely goes over to snow. Gotta get decent baro. support, >30.10 essential, 30.20 would be good, 30.25 great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Columbia is included? Stop stealing Baltimore city's snow! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Why would LWX issue now? This thing is still a ways away. I'm guessing rush hour impact plus everyone's minds on the superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z NAM getting precip in here just after midnight tomorrow... that's quick Yeah, very quick. Could it cool the column a bit quicker before the main slug arrives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 surprised they didn't include montgomery/loudon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nice, nam has 850 through dc @ 4am. This is something I've been worried about. Should be a good nam'ing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You got it winterwxluv, ground will still be solid frozen and radiating below top 1". Lot of yapping again this time, just like last one, about how we don't kow what is what. This is a classic rain to start, switch to snow n&w of Beltway, city up for grabs but also likely goes over to snow. Gotta get decent baro. support, >30.10 essential, 30.20 would be good, 30.25 great. I think that will help especially west and north where the 850s are not an issue. In the city I'm not so sure as there is lots of asphalt. mby the Euro was really slow getting the 850 temps to drop below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 surprised they didn't include montgomery/loudon they did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 surprised they didn't include montgomery/loudon They are incuded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 surprised they didn't include montgomery/loudon Montgomery was included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nice, nam has 850 through dc @ 4am. This is something I've been worried about. Should be a good nam'ing Same... I was a bit worried at 33... 39 looks good crossing the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Crap, it's kinda draped right over dc between 4am and 7am. Nailbiter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM holds up 850 line right over DC at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 they did I can't read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Freezing line at 800 straddling DC at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is going to be some heavy wet snow... 6:1 or 8:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Crap, it's kinda draped right over dc between 4am and 7am. Nailbiter Livin on the edge. But don't tell some folks that, because they are going to will the ground to be cold, etc. If you say it will happen..it WILL happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I can't read Me either but I saw a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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