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Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II


DDweatherman

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Its not gonna be south. It will probably be wetter and more in line with the other guidance thermally. This is shaping up to be a classic NW of fall line heavy wet snow event. Places SE of I-95 should expect rain or a mix and hope for a couple inches towards the end of the event.

Adjusting expectations. I'll expect some rain, possibly mixing with sleet and/or some snow, and I'll hold out hope for perhaps a coating of very wet snow on my car top towards the end of the event. I'm 5 miles west of I-95 but I'll still see plenty of liquid.

Cheers to folks well west of the fall line for possibly 8 inches of fresh snow.  :snowing:

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Seems like a paste job looking at the 2m temps from 12z to 18z... prob light rain to start and we get the rates to switch to heavy wet snow... maybe to light drizzle as we end?

 

we probably flip around 6am...but It doesnt make any sense to parse the  sref

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I look for a WSW for the northern counties in MD in the 3 PM update

 

Yep, I hope they do for the sake of the Monday morning commuters who will really need a heads up, otherwise 695 may end up looking like Atlanta last week.

 

unless people are aware, SN+ at 7am = traffic disaster waiting to happen

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The SREF plumes are fun to look at, not correct most of the time but they do give some hints. Interesting that the means are fairly similar for the area...Frederick to DC to Dover all 4 to 5. Not seeing any disparity between places to the NW and those further SE like I would expect. Fwiw the SREF means were very close for the very marginal late March wet wet snow event of last winter.

 

 

edit- means are more like 6 to 7.5" per the 15z run.

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The SREF plumes are fun to look at, not correct most of the time but they do give some hints. Interesting that the means are fairly similar for the area...Frederick to DC to Dover all 4 to 5. Not seeing any disparity between places to the NW and those further SE like I would expect. Fwiw the SREF means were very close for the very marginal late March wet wet snow event of last winter.

 

 

edit- means are more like 6 to 7.5" per the 15z run.

We picked up 2.5 inches in the late March wet wet snow event. However, my expectations remain as stated above.

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I look for a WSW for the northern counties in MD in the 3 PM update

Anyone remember when LWX would issue an SPS days in advance of a potential storm? Like if was a Saturday and there was a threat, say, 5 days away, they would issue an SPS with a headline "SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE MIDWEEK..." or something to that effect and of course add that it was too early to go into specifics. Maybe I'm just making this up (lol), but I seem to remember them doing it frequently a long, long time ago (like 2005 and before). As a young weenie a long time ago, it would always signal to me that a storm threat was legit.

Anyway, back on topic...NAM time ;)

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50s and even 60 degrees for two days before a marginal temp event... Hmmm... I wonder.

Translation:

Anyone who thinks there will be more than 1-2" of accumulation east of IAD hasn't lived In this area all that long.

50's and even 60 degrees effect on ground that has been frozen for weeks. Hmmmm, I wonder.

Translation: very little effect on accumulating snow with the possible exception of temporary issues in the beginning on paved surfaces

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50's and even 60 degrees effect on ground that has been frozen for weeks. Hmmmm, I wonder.

Translation: very little effect on accumulating snow with the possible exception of temporary issues in the beginning on paved surfaces

 

I'd be more concerned with the massive amounts of salt everywhere.  It was 7 degrees at night with light snow coming down when we got brushed with the SE storm and it was still turning to water on the roads :[

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SREF is probably one of the best tools in the svr weather box in the 24-48 hour range but I can't remember a time where it's been all that useful when it comes to snow. It's like SOP for it to ramp way up going into an event and then end up wrong.

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WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-MONTGOMERY-
HOWARD-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...
FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
311 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
  IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

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SREF is probably one of the best tools in the svr weather box in the 24-48 hour range but I can't remember a time where it's been all that useful when it comes to snow. It's like SOP for it to ramp way up going into an event and then end up wrong.

Very much so, however you guys are in a great spot for this one. Good luck

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WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-MONTGOMERY-

HOWARD-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-

SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-WESTERN HIGHLAND-

EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-

WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-

WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...

GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...

FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...

CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...

ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN

311 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY

EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...AND

  CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION

  IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

 

:tomato:

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Anyone remember when LWX would issue an SPS days in advance of a potential storm? Like if was a Saturday and there was a threat, say, 5 days away, they would issue an SPS with a headline "SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE MIDWEEK..." or something to that effect and of course add that it was too early to go into specifics. Maybe I'm just making this up (lol), but I seem to remember them doing it frequently a long, long time ago (like 2005 and before). As a young weenie a long time ago, it would always signal to me that a storm threat was legit.

Anyway, back on topic...NAM time ;)

 

Nope, not making it up at all.... you summed it up perfectly. I miss those special weather statements.

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You got it winterwxluv, ground will still be solid frozen and radiating below top 1". Lot of yapping again this time, just like last one, about how we don't kow what is what. This is a classic rain to start, switch to snow n&w of Beltway, city up for grabs but also likely goes over to snow. Gotta get decent baro. support, >30.10 essential, 30.20 would be good, 30.25 great.

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