wxmeddler Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ellinwood map not bad as usual http://madusweather.com/2014/02/winter-storm-threat-feb-3-initial-call/ In the end, likely right on. Maybe a smudge S but that's negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Pretty bullish forecast out this way from Mark. Can't see ECMWF yet, but American models depict a 1-3, 2-4 event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Pretty bullish forecast out this way from Mark. Can't see ECMWF yet, but American models depict a 1-3, 2-4 event here. Euro gives you between .8 - .9 precip for the event. Euro is the wettest and most widespread overall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro gives you between .8 - .9 precip for the event. Euro is the wettest and most widespread overall now.and also the warmest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Elevation FTW. I am at 70', does that count? Leesburg wont get fringed. They'll get annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro gives you between .8 - .9 precip for the event. Euro is the wettest and most widespread overall now.Nice. Thanks, Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18Z NAM should be really wet if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18Z NAM should be really wet if the trends continue. Little further south would be nice. The Euro/NAM have DC, EZF, and CHO flirting with 850 during the height of it. Maybe the dynamics win out though (for a change). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ellinwood map not bad as usual http://madusweather.com/2014/02/winter-storm-threat-feb-3-initial-call/ Very reasonable map. I remember noting back in early December that this winter's patterns seemed to love Maryland and the elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Little further south would be nice. The Euro/NAM have DC, EZF, and CHO flirting with 850 during the height of it. Maybe the dynamics win out though (for a change). Its not gonna be south. It will probably be wetter and more in line with the other guidance thermally. This is shaping up to be a classic NW of fall line heavy wet snow event. Places SE of I-95 should expect rain or a mix and hope for a couple inches towards the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 15z SREFs 1"+ QPF in 24 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 and also the warmest? At the surface the raw #s are almost identical to nam/gfs. 33-35 at 7am and most everybody 95 and West 32 or below at 1pm. Raw numbers have led us down improper expectations multiple times recently. But this one has some of the best precip rates we've seen all year so everyone needs to kinda draw their own conclusions based on their location and past history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREFs 2m temps basically sit around 32 +/-1 around DCA from 12z to 18z... DCA prob 34/35 at 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At least it's not March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 sref_namer_054_precip_p12_15z_2-1-14.gif Where do you find those SREF maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREFS would be awesome.....if I had 5 degrees to bargain with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF is around 1.35" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF is around 1.35" for DCA Seems like a paste job looking at the 2m temps from 12z to 18z... prob light rain to start and we get the rates to switch to heavy wet snow... maybe to light drizzle as we end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its not gonna be south. It will probably be wetter and more in line with the other guidance thermally. This is shaping up to be a classic NW of fall line heavy wet snow event. Places SE of I-95 should expect rain or a mix and hope for a couple inches towards the end of the event. Adjusting expectations. I'll expect some rain, possibly mixing with sleet and/or some snow, and I'll hold out hope for perhaps a coating of very wet snow on my car top towards the end of the event. I'm 5 miles west of I-95 but I'll still see plenty of liquid. Cheers to folks well west of the fall line for possibly 8 inches of fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 50s and even 60 degrees for two days before a marginal temp event... Hmmm... I wonder. Translation: Anyone who thinks there will be more than 1-2" of accumulation east of IAD hasn't lived In this area all that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Seems like a paste job looking at the 2m temps from 12z to 18z... prob light rain to start and we get the rates to switch to heavy wet snow... maybe to light drizzle as we end? we probably flip around 6am...but It doesnt make any sense to parse the sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF snow plumes have a mean of about 4.5 inches for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 we probably flip around 6am...but It doesnt make any sense to parse the sref The Sref 850 temps are zero at 15Z which makes me think that changeover is too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I look for a WSW for the northern counties in MD in the 3 PM update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I look for a WSW for the northern counties in MD in the 3 PM update Hoping for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF is around 1.35" for DCA Splitting hairs but its 1.15"...1.35" includes stuff from 00z-06z on the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its NAM time, and soon the happy hour will begin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I look for a WSW for the northern counties in MD in the 3 PM update Yep, I hope they do for the sake of the Monday morning commuters who will really need a heads up, otherwise 695 may end up looking like Atlanta last week. unless people are aware, SN+ at 7am = traffic disaster waiting to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The SREF plumes are fun to look at, not correct most of the time but they do give some hints. Interesting that the means are fairly similar for the area...Frederick to DC to Dover all 4 to 5. Not seeing any disparity between places to the NW and those further SE like I would expect. Fwiw the SREF means were very close for the very marginal late March wet wet snow event of last winter. edit- means are more like 6 to 7.5" per the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The SREF plumes are fun to look at, not correct most of the time but they do give some hints. Interesting that the means are fairly similar for the area...Frederick to DC to Dover all 4 to 5. Not seeing any disparity between places to the NW and those further SE like I would expect. Fwiw the SREF means were very close for the very marginal late March wet wet snow event of last winter. edit- means are more like 6 to 7.5" per the 15z run. We picked up 2.5 inches in the late March wet wet snow event. However, my expectations remain as stated above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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