usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 good luck making a forecast with this one... I've supplied matt with a nice long quote about the difficulties with the forecast. Right now I think a conservative approach for DC is best but think somewhere north and west might really get plastered with a band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If the EURO analysis is correct, I like the trend. A shift of 25 miles tomorrow would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 good luck making a forecast with this one...Precip heavy for a time possibly snow or rain maybe accumulating somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 at 48 hrs we're rain as the 850 temp is above freezing as is the surface. By 54 hours we're 1C but the surface still is above freezing and the 850 temp still is above freezing at my house. I don't like the odds for you and me. Heck, I bet at 18Z DCA is still 34 or so despite the raw model output. yes..i wonder what precip type for DC is at say 49-50 hours..Hard to beleve it is driving rain at that point..51 hours on GFS is snow and 48 on the NAM is snow...for DCA...maybe not your house..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Precip heavy for a time possibly snow or rain maybe accumulating somewhere. I do think after reading people's interpretation of the euro that I'm living in an alternate world. They see hope and i see well not quite dispair but don't like what I see for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 does anybody remember the forecast column for 2/25/07?...of course we had a block then....I'm pretty sure every piece of guidance had a warm nose above 850 and a sfc above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I do think after reading people's interpretation of the euro that I'm living in an alternate world. They see hope and i see well not quite dispair but don't like what I see for mby. I'm definitely not too psyched IMBY. I agree with you.. fall line area west/north might get a decent wet paste job. Here... I dunno. It's gonna take some luck to get more than some slushy mess after rain and then hoping for a plastering during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah. I'm not sure things will be resolved until the snow actually starts falling. You guys have danced this dance before and gotten burned more often than not. If it's heavy sure we can accumulate in that. How confident are we that it'll be ripping though? Given the bumps up in qpf I guess we can count on this a bit more than the temps at the moment. I refuse to let myself get emotionally invested in this one. There is so much potential here but so many conflicting pieces. We've been on the good side of things so far this winter so hey maybe we catch a break again. 0.65" in 6 hours is ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 does anybody remember the forecast column for 2/25/07?...of course we had a block then....I'm pretty sure every piece of guidance had a warm nose above 850 and a sfc above freezing lol, i'm getting where I'm lucky to remember where I left the toothbrush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 does anybody remember the forecast column for 2/25/07?...of course we had a block then....I'm pretty sure every piece of guidance had a warm nose above 850 and a sfc above freezing Doesn't it look more like 1/26/10? Or was it 1/26/11 re the surface and marginal column? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I would almost rather be able to let this storm go than straddle the line, as I am currently doing. I hate nothing more than a slushy layer in the grass and nothing on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro 3 hr snowfall maps work best for this type of setup. 2" + in a 3 hr period should be adequet for an advisory and 3 a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm definitely not too psyched IMBY. I agree with you.. fall line area west/north might get a decent wet paste job. Here... I dunno. It's gonna take some luck to get more than some slushy mess after rain and then hoping for a plastering during the day. I do say in the quote that things won't be resolved until with see the white of the flakes and the temperatures while it is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol, i'm getting where I'm lucky to remember where I left the toothbrush. we ended up hitting 32 and got +SN and it stuck everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Does anybody see Euro skew-ts? I think the bigger issue is the warm nose around 800mb that GFS is advertising. 12z looked like pingers or PLRA for folks DC and S/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.65" in 6 hours is ripping Becoming unanimous with that across guidance. Without that this thread would be tears and crickets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I do say in the quote that things won't be resolved until with see the white of the flakes and the temperatures while it is falling. I think we're in a better spot in some ways than we were just given we're close to the max zone in the cold sector but there is a lot to be resolved. Even in a best case it might be drippy globby snow falling in wet clumps out of the trees etc here. But I guess that's DC for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Areas that can get to 31 or 32 degrees will get blasted with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wundermap 2m temps has 0C line going through dca between hrs 51 and 54 with some snow on the ground from 51 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 My usual optimism is tempered but you're right, the models haven't written us DC folk off yet. We're straddling the line but incremental trends keep DC in the game and look good for areas NW. This is fun. If the raw temps were colder I'd be a little more enthused. They are too cold almost all the time and if that's the case here... well, congrats whoever lives on a hill north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Areas that can get to 31 or 32 degrees will get blasted with this. a line from JYO to Westminster to Parkton could get 4-8" with this...south and east of that line is a wild card... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can't yet decide if I'm in a good spot for this, last March when everyone downtown was crying Cenreville managed to squeeze a couple of inches.. I'm going to pretend I live at Dulles and hope that the 32 line sets up over DCA + count on some intense rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think we're in a better spot in some ways than we were just given we're close to the max zone in the cold sector but there is a lot to be resolved. Even in a best case it might be drippy globby snow falling in wet clumps out of the trees etc here. But I guess that's DC for ya. DC does globby very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can't yet decide if I'm in a good spot for this, last March when everyone downtown was crying Cenreville managed to squeeze a couple of inches.. I'm going to pretend I live at Dulles and hope that the 32 line sets up over DCA + count on some intense rates I think you are in an ok spot same with me...for us it will be making sure 850s make it here...our surface will be better than DCA I think...I have been snow plenty of times when DCA was rain or mix...you too I bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That should be an impressive period. Maybe enough for another snow day This is about as close as it gets, at least since I moved here a few months ago. Great rates can overcome it, but I prefer to overestimate the power of the DC torch than underestimate it. if we shift north in the modeling it will make the heartbreak easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ellinwood map not bad as usual http://madusweather.com/2014/02/winter-storm-threat-feb-3-initial-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ellinwood map not bad as usual http://madusweather.com/2014/02/winter-storm-threat-feb-3-initial-call/ That looks spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ellinwood map not bad as usual http://madusweather.com/2014/02/winter-storm-threat-feb-3-initial-call/ looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I guess I'm working from home on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 that warm nose around 800mb was on last night's Euro and I'm sure, with the thicknesses shown on the maps, is there again so looking at 850s and surface are not the complete story on the good news side, it looks like the Euro didn't get warmer from last night's run so maybe the bleeding has stopped and we can get our luck to reverse back to cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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