Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0.65" in 6 hours is ripping Becoming unanimous with that across guidance. Without that this thread would be tears and crickets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I do say in the quote that things won't be resolved until with see the white of the flakes and the temperatures while it is falling. I think we're in a better spot in some ways than we were just given we're close to the max zone in the cold sector but there is a lot to be resolved. Even in a best case it might be drippy globby snow falling in wet clumps out of the trees etc here. But I guess that's DC for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Areas that can get to 31 or 32 degrees will get blasted with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wundermap 2m temps has 0C line going through dca between hrs 51 and 54 with some snow on the ground from 51 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 My usual optimism is tempered but you're right, the models haven't written us DC folk off yet. We're straddling the line but incremental trends keep DC in the game and look good for areas NW. This is fun. If the raw temps were colder I'd be a little more enthused. They are too cold almost all the time and if that's the case here... well, congrats whoever lives on a hill north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can't yet decide if I'm in a good spot for this, last March when everyone downtown was crying Cenreville managed to squeeze a couple of inches.. I'm going to pretend I live at Dulles and hope that the 32 line sets up over DCA + count on some intense rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think we're in a better spot in some ways than we were just given we're close to the max zone in the cold sector but there is a lot to be resolved. Even in a best case it might be drippy globby snow falling in wet clumps out of the trees etc here. But I guess that's DC for ya. DC does globby very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Can't yet decide if I'm in a good spot for this, last March when everyone downtown was crying Cenreville managed to squeeze a couple of inches.. I'm going to pretend I live at Dulles and hope that the 32 line sets up over DCA + count on some intense rates I think you are in an ok spot same with me...for us it will be making sure 850s make it here...our surface will be better than DCA I think...I have been snow plenty of times when DCA was rain or mix...you too I bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ellinwood map not bad as usual http://madusweather.com/2014/02/winter-storm-threat-feb-3-initial-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ellinwood map not bad as usual http://madusweather.com/2014/02/winter-storm-threat-feb-3-initial-call/ That looks spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I guess I'm working from home on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 that warm nose around 800mb was on last night's Euro and I'm sure, with the thicknesses shown on the maps, is there again so looking at 850s and surface are not the complete story on the good news side, it looks like the Euro didn't get warmer from last night's run so maybe the bleeding has stopped and we can get our luck to reverse back to cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ellinwood map not bad as usual http://madusweather.com/2014/02/winter-storm-threat-feb-3-initial-call/ In the end, likely right on. Maybe a smudge S but that's negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Pretty bullish forecast out this way from Mark. Can't see ECMWF yet, but American models depict a 1-3, 2-4 event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Pretty bullish forecast out this way from Mark. Can't see ECMWF yet, but American models depict a 1-3, 2-4 event here. Euro gives you between .8 - .9 precip for the event. Euro is the wettest and most widespread overall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro gives you between .8 - .9 precip for the event. Euro is the wettest and most widespread overall now.and also the warmest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Elevation FTW. I am at 70', does that count? Leesburg wont get fringed. They'll get annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro gives you between .8 - .9 precip for the event. Euro is the wettest and most widespread overall now.Nice. Thanks, Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18Z NAM should be really wet if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18Z NAM should be really wet if the trends continue. Little further south would be nice. The Euro/NAM have DC, EZF, and CHO flirting with 850 during the height of it. Maybe the dynamics win out though (for a change). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ellinwood map not bad as usual http://madusweather.com/2014/02/winter-storm-threat-feb-3-initial-call/ Very reasonable map. I remember noting back in early December that this winter's patterns seemed to love Maryland and the elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Little further south would be nice. The Euro/NAM have DC, EZF, and CHO flirting with 850 during the height of it. Maybe the dynamics win out though (for a change). Its not gonna be south. It will probably be wetter and more in line with the other guidance thermally. This is shaping up to be a classic NW of fall line heavy wet snow event. Places SE of I-95 should expect rain or a mix and hope for a couple inches towards the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 15z SREFs 1"+ QPF in 24 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 and also the warmest? At the surface the raw #s are almost identical to nam/gfs. 33-35 at 7am and most everybody 95 and West 32 or below at 1pm. Raw numbers have led us down improper expectations multiple times recently. But this one has some of the best precip rates we've seen all year so everyone needs to kinda draw their own conclusions based on their location and past history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREFs 2m temps basically sit around 32 +/-1 around DCA from 12z to 18z... DCA prob 34/35 at 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At least it's not March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 sref_namer_054_precip_p12_15z_2-1-14.gif Where do you find those SREF maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREFS would be awesome.....if I had 5 degrees to bargain with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF is around 1.35" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 SREF is around 1.35" for DCA Seems like a paste job looking at the 2m temps from 12z to 18z... prob light rain to start and we get the rates to switch to heavy wet snow... maybe to light drizzle as we end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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