jums300 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Everyone was so optimistic this morning. But since this is the Mid-Atlantic forum, I don't think this storm is a lost cause for everyone here....just for DC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Everyone was so optimistic this morning. But since this is the Mid-Atlantic forum, I don't think this storm is a lost cause for everyone here....just for DC south. If this event play out somewhat close to what most guidance has as of right now, you will do fine in Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Everyone was so optimistic this morning. But since this is the Mid-Atlantic forum, I don't think this storm is a lost cause for everyone here....just for DC south. Models can't all keep trending north until the arrival of precip over 2 days away. This rarely happens, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If this event play out somewhat close to what most guidance has as of right now, you will do fine in Reisterstown. How close does the rain/snow line get to western Price William County area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If this event play out somewhat close to what most guidance has as of right now, you will do fine in Reisterstown. Thanks! I think you'll definitely get snow too. Maybe the heavier accumulations will be a little to the south of you, but north Central MD is probably in the best spot for this storm. BTW, I love it up there in north north MD...Almost like you're out of state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 How close does the rain/snow line get to western Price William County area. Reistertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sounds the euro stuck a fork in this one for dc based on reaction in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks! I think you'll definitely get snow too. Maybe the heavier accumulations will be a little to the south of you, but north Central MD is probably in the best spot for this storm. BTW, I love it up there in north north MD...Almost like you're out of state! I lived in Reisterstown for 16 years and even though I am only 25 minutes away now it's definitely is another world up here. Much different type of living up here, more like PA than MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 How close does the rain/snow line get to western Price William County area. Not following. I am talking about north central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro is very wet...almost 1" in DC....but I dont even know precip type...rain, snow? Probably cold rain to start? I see 0c 850 line like 50 miles at most south of DCA at 72... as in just south of EZF... maybe a paste job? I can't see temps on my site I use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro is very wet...almost 1" in DC....but I dont even know precip type...rain, snow? 1"line in extreme Southern FFX County. .9" in DC? 850s are 0 at 48, -1 at 54 and -2 at 60. Sfc starts at 34/35 but drops to 32 by hour 54. I don't know...my weenie eyes says this is okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro is very wet...almost 1" in DC....but I dont even know precip type...rain, snow? We got all kinds of conflicting signals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 1"line in extreme Southern FFX County. .9" in DC? 850s are 0 to -2 or -3. Sfc starts at 34/35 but drops to 32 by hour 54. I don't know...my weenie eyes says this is okay. If that's correct, we'd still be in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Tricky.. maybe a little colder at 850 initially but then a little warmer at peak. Sfc is about the same or marginally better than last night. N&W ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At 48hrs the 850 0C line is from IAD to just S of BWI, probably not quite to DCA based on low res maps. Not sure how that compares to 0Z run but based on ewall is a shift south from yesterday's 12Z...pretty much in line with all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Not following. I am talking about north central MD. Sorry meant to post with out the attachment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At 48hrs the 850 0C line is from IAD to just S of BWI, probably not quite to DCA based on low res maps. Not sure how that compares to 0Z run but based on ewall is a shift south from yesterday's 12Z...pretty much in line with all other guidance. not bad...not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 72?...who cares that is like days after the storm ends at 48 hrs we're rain as the 850 temp is above freezing as is the surface. By 54 hours we're 1C but the surface still is above freezing and the 850 temp still is above freezing at my house. I don't like the odds for you and me. Heck, I bet at 18Z DCA is still 34 or so despite the raw model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nice run. When I asked Ian if 2-3" with heavy snow for a period would be ok because I was thinking it was reasonable with obvious risks. Dig seeing the euro show at least that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 good luck making a forecast with this one... I've supplied matt with a nice long quote about the difficulties with the forecast. Right now I think a conservative approach for DC is best but think somewhere north and west might really get plastered with a band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If the EURO analysis is correct, I like the trend. A shift of 25 miles tomorrow would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 good luck making a forecast with this one...Precip heavy for a time possibly snow or rain maybe accumulating somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Precip heavy for a time possibly snow or rain maybe accumulating somewhere. I do think after reading people's interpretation of the euro that I'm living in an alternate world. They see hope and i see well not quite dispair but don't like what I see for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I do think after reading people's interpretation of the euro that I'm living in an alternate world. They see hope and i see well not quite dispair but don't like what I see for mby. I'm definitely not too psyched IMBY. I agree with you.. fall line area west/north might get a decent wet paste job. Here... I dunno. It's gonna take some luck to get more than some slushy mess after rain and then hoping for a plastering during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 does anybody remember the forecast column for 2/25/07?...of course we had a block then....I'm pretty sure every piece of guidance had a warm nose above 850 and a sfc above freezing lol, i'm getting where I'm lucky to remember where I left the toothbrush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 does anybody remember the forecast column for 2/25/07?...of course we had a block then....I'm pretty sure every piece of guidance had a warm nose above 850 and a sfc above freezing Doesn't it look more like 1/26/10? Or was it 1/26/11 re the surface and marginal column? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I would almost rather be able to let this storm go than straddle the line, as I am currently doing. I hate nothing more than a slushy layer in the grass and nothing on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro 3 hr snowfall maps work best for this type of setup. 2" + in a 3 hr period should be adequet for an advisory and 3 a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm definitely not too psyched IMBY. I agree with you.. fall line area west/north might get a decent wet paste job. Here... I dunno. It's gonna take some luck to get more than some slushy mess after rain and then hoping for a plastering during the day. I do say in the quote that things won't be resolved until with see the white of the flakes and the temperatures while it is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Does anybody see Euro skew-ts? I think the bigger issue is the warm nose around 800mb that GFS is advertising. 12z looked like pingers or PLRA for folks DC and S/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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