BlizzardNole Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well I've done my best to throw some luck into it -- our garage door is broken and we have a repairman coming Monday morning. If that gets cancelled, it can't be done before Friday. Thus it will snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Until the shift north stops, nobody is going to feel good about this. Just look where it was 36 hours ago. The Euro has been the most consistent, so yeah, I think everyone cares what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 IMO, you guys are screwed. I won't sugarcoat that at all. These scenarios rarely work for DCA. 1-26-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 With 36 hours, will end up Trenton To Harrisburg to Morgantown Special. you are outside this forum area so posting things that will screw everyone in it will only get banned or 5 posted just warning you so don't act surprised if it happens to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's going to be a lot easier to know once we get a couple model cycles in a row that are similar. Lots of change still happening. Usually on Feb 3 you'd think that heavy precip and 850's under would be a good bet for snow, but now the 850 is flirting with us as well. Maybe, for once, the Euro will make us feel better. The Euro NEVER makes us feel better. It will be even warmer and probably wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z GGEM for all of us who care is~ 20mm on the color maps at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm in this forum.. look at the area. seasonal trend has been north over and over. Not sure why I'd be banned for posting the obvious. Nice event..If it was Sunday I'd look at going to N Md or S central PA. Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm in this forum.. look at the area. seasonal trend has been north over and over. Not sure why I'd be banned for posting the obvious. Nice event..If it was Sunday I'd look at going to N Md or S central PA. Sent from my SM-N900P NOOOOOOO, not you Huff White Mtn. Wx he just happened to re-post your quote so you got pulled into it he's 1/2 way between PHL and Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I thought this 6z runs were half decent. so is all this pessimism because of one run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I thought this 6z runs were half decent. so is all this pessimism because of one run? But its not just one run. ANd it's a trend of warming the surface and now, even the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z GGEM for all of us who care is~ 20mm on the color maps at DCAClose to reasonable consensus. Some big totals in Jan 2011 liquid wise but that was a great vort. This sys isn't as dynamic so someone might top 1" in the cold sector but doubtful widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Close to reasonable consensus. Some big totals in Jan 2011 liquid wise but that was a great vort. This sys isn't as dynamic so someone might top 1" in the cold sector but doubtful widespread. consistent .5 - .75 dca for a while now. Decent rates in a 6 hour window. Just gotta hope for the best and expect the worst. We're used to it. I might be 15 miles nw but i can get hosed very easily here too. Just happy there is an event in short leads. Tracking is always fun at short leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Gotcha. for comparison, Thursday models brought snow or sleet all the way down to i-40 in North Carolina. No reason to think that at 36 hours, it's going to stop that train. I'd love for you all to get smoked up there. I do feel a sense of loyalty to our forum and would rather we keep it in house. Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z GGEM for all of us who care is~ 20mm on the color maps at DCA[/quoteHow are temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z nam gives Westminster .5 qpf snow, some precip falls as rain before the changeover at 10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Canadian at 54 hr...before this its kinda bleh for DC but better for Baltimore...certainly on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Canadian at 54 hr...before this its kinda bleh for DC but better for Baltimore...certainly on the fence. I'll take that death band. Please and thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I just hit 50F. the air is already too warm for a storm 48hrs away. We needed to be at 32 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Canadian at 54 hr...before this its kinda bleh for DC but better for Baltimore...certainly on the fence. could you post the link to that I had it, I thought, but can't find it...thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 you are outside this forum area so posting things that will screw everyone in it will only get banned or 5 posted just warning you so don't act surprised if it happens to you Huff is not in this forum??? I'd hate to think what you though of me...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Huff is not in this forum??? I'd hate to think what you though of me...... read my post to Huff above...I wasn't referring to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Verbatim on that CMC maps, Baltimore flips to snow at 47 hrs...for DC more like 52 or so...I know those can be off but its what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Like 36 hours ago or something this thing was a washed out mess giving light snow to southern VA. Now it's a roided-up beefcake threatening to be too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sure. Do you have a time machine for two hours from now that shows what happens with that run? I think I know when it comes out. It was just a general question. It seems the general pattern is on the table. You don't have to be so snarky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 In the 4 years I have lived here, it is laughable how many times the rain/snow line is in between DCA and IAD. Looks like it may happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Gotcha. for comparison, Thursday models brought snow or sleet all the way down to i-40 in North Carolina. No reason to think that at 36 hours, it's going to stop that train. I'd love for you all to get smoked up there. I do feel a sense of loyalty to our forum and would rather we keep it in house. Sent from my SM-N900P Lot of merit to this post. It hasn't stopped yet, that we've seen. Will the Euro and 18 keep it where it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think I know when it comes out. It was just a general question. It seems the general pattern is on the table. You don't have to be so snarky. LOL. Sorry but I'm not seeing anything that's settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I mentioned this earlier and I think it is a problem... the midweek vort is bigger/stronger than the Sun/Mon one and it is backing the flow quicker, thereby not allowing the Sun/Monday vort to pass further to our south you can see it if you look the 500mb maps; the top link is 12z and the botton link is 6z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20140201%2012%20UTC¶m=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20140201%2006%20UTC¶m=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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