Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A nice storm for trixie and our winchester contingent, probably not so good for you, Ian, Matt, andy and me. One day DC is going to jackpot. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I have my expectations set at heavy white rain with a coating to half inch of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That plus Euro = sad me. #precipbomb I just checked surface temps (i know i know) and they look like the NAM. 850's slower this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think people are underestimating the chance for dynamical cooling here...yeah if Im in DC Im but it can be accumlating snow at 33-34...I still think a few inches for both DC and Balt are not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well, this definitely tapered my enthusiasm for this one. Frees me from this damn computer for a good bit now. yay for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 RGEM has been pretty consistent for many runs in a row, no? Even if QPF is overdone, would still be a nice hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snowquester part ll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So is there any way DC area can score with this? It seems like both the EURO and GFS keep the best precip south of the DC area, and usually being on the northern edge of the best precip would be the right spot. But both models still give us temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm starting to think the trailing vort is messing up the flow and not allowing the cold to penetrate further S & E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think people are underestimating the chance for dynamical cooling here...yeah if Im in DC Im but it can be accumlating snow at 33-34...I still think a few inches for both DC and Balt are not out of the question. I know I am going to get shot for making the comparison, but what were the temps like for 1-26-11? As I recall DCA never dropped below freezing but recorded 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think people are underestimating the chance for dynamical cooling here...yeah if Im in DC Im but it can be accumlating snow at 33-34...I still think a few inches for both DC and Balt are not out of the question. It actually looks pretty good for the fall line and west about 20-30 miles. .5+ for most in a 6 hour period. Surface 32 or below for most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It actually looks pretty good for the fall line and west about 20-30 miles. .5+ for most in a 6 hour period. Surface 32 or below for most of it. Yeah, I think you will be ok and everybody N and W of you...shocker. It's good to know early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah, I think you will be ok and everybody N and W of you...shocker. It's good to know early. We'll see how it goes. DC is close verbatim. 6 hour precip ending 1pm and 32 contour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I know I am going to get shot for making the comparison, but what were the temps like for 1-26-11? As I recall DCA never dropped below freezing but recorded 5 inches. Ive already made the comparison on my weather page yesterday but clearly stating this will NOT be as disruptive..but yes, the chance for dynamical cooling is somewhat similar in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ive already made the comparison on my weather page yesterday but clearly stating this will NOT be as disruptive..but yes, the chance for dynamical cooling is somewhat similar in my book. Ya. Timing is key. That was right on the PM commutte, this looks like it won't get cranking until after the AM commute is finished and will end before the PM commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 this is reminding me now of the 12/25/2 storm locally, at least, (this doesn't have the northward progression that had all the way up the coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm sick of people way north telling us to calm down in DC. Weenieing may work up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm sick of people way north telling us to calm down in DC. Weenieing may work up there. What is your bar for success? 2-3" in a couple hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well, this definitely tapered my enthusiasm for this one. Frees me from this damn computer for a good bit now. yay for that. Beautiful outside. I am headed out to wash the car and then go hiking. I really would rather this just be rain, because the next event right behind it is warm and wet. And we sure don't need more salt dumped on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's going to be a lot easier to know once we get a couple model cycles in a row that are similar. Lots of change still happening. Usually on Feb 3 you'd think that heavy precip and 850's under would be a good bet for snow, but now the 850 is flirting with us as well. Maybe, for once, the Euro will make us feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The sounding (GFS) for 12z Monday for the Silver Spring station has a warm nose and the surface just above freezing, by 54 it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm sick of people way north telling us to calm down in DC. Weenieing may work up there. IMO, you guys are screwed. I won't sugarcoat that at all. These scenarios rarely work for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Even for the station south of Woodbridge at 18z it looks marginal but could be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What is your bar for success? 2-3" in a couple hours? Probably somewhere in there. Which is possible. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1984/us0118.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 FWIW, 12Z NAM soundings for APG look like all snow and a ton of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What is your bar for success? 2-3" in a couple hours? The GFS verbatim looks like a touch lesser version of 12/5/09.... DCA 0.3", upper NW an inch or two, and >3" only when you get west of the fall line. There's not enough precip on it (we easily matched 0.5" in 6 hours in 12/5/09) to even begin to compare to 1/26/11. The NAM is more promising if you want the real snow bomb, but it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Does anyone care what the Euro shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 With 36 hours, will end up Trenton To Harrisburg to Morgantown Special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Does anyone care what the Euro shows? Sure. Do you have a time machine for two hours from now that shows what happens with that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I DO NOT like folks riding the line this far out. The trend is not our friend and I think we will end up with MD being in better spot.. I know it is timing and it gets too easy in systems like this to have it fail and not work out! Get that Rain Snow line 50 miles or so South and we start feeling a bit more comfortable.. but, unless it was 2010, bet on a less favorable situation. We have seen already the snow line shift from Central VA to our doorstep... is it done? I hope so, but I would only feel better if EURO moved the line south and 0 followed in its tracks. Winchester and up into MD... I think this is gonna be yours again.. I AM NOT In a bad spot, but I think folks have every reason to worry if they were set on a snow storm in Northern VA/DC South and east. EDIT: I realize the response to this as I read it is ... "Thanks Mr Obvious! That is what the majority is saying!" ... Well I agree with the majority! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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