lsukev Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I've mentioned this before. Why do the SREF plumes suck so bad? They still have Dulles at 6" with most members above that. DCA still at 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:26 AM, blizzardmeiser said: It's over for dc but points north should do well gotta get north of BWI if NAM verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's the NAM!!!! It has about as much a chance of verifying as Denver does to win the SuperBowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Any idea how Martin st airport does?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hires NAM 0z 850 line is draped over DC at 7a. I'm sure there are those warm noses elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So is it over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Didn't the Euro look really good with an entirely cold sounding by 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:33 AM, WxUSAF said: Didn't the Euro look really good with an entirely cold sounding by 12z? Pretty sure the 18z GFS looked good enough for DCA at 12z as well with a good enough sounding for wet snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is a nowcasting situation anyway. I am not giving up until the event begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:33 AM, WxUSAF said: Didn't the Euro look really good with an entirely cold sounding by 12z? yes for IAD and somewhat BWI, though surface was 33-34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:18 AM, PhineasC said: Crushing rain. I ran the forecast soundings derived from the 0Z NAM and your area as well as my area are wire to wire snow with all layers of the column frozen from around 11Z until about 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sleet is 3:1 ratio... Not the worst thing in the world... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:33 AM, WxUSAF said: Didn't the Euro look really good with an entirely cold sounding by 12z? NAM is fine north of DCA. I guess maybe BWI is bad; I didn't look there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 925 sounding is almost identical to 850 at 7a per the Hires NAM, probably a smidge warmer as the line looks to be touching NW DC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:33 AM, yoda said: Pretty sure the 18z GFS looked good enough for DCA at 12z as well with a good enough sounding for wet snow as well On 2/3/2014 at 2:34 AM, mitchnick said: yes for IAD and somewhat BWI, though surface was 33-34 Right...so remind me why people are abandoning ship before the life boats are lowered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah 18z gfs soundings weren't too bad marginal snow from 7am on for silver spring on twisterdata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:40 AM, WxUSAF said: Right...so remind me why people are abandoning ship before the life boats are lowered? I have been on board since the Titanic began sinking a few days ago... I am still on board for the GFS at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:44 AM, yoda said: I have been on board since the Titanic began sinking a few days ago... I am still on board for the GFS at the very least We're always all in, right? Now if I was inside the DC beltway or below the Fall Line, I'd be scaling my expectations appropriately, but I still feel fairly bullish for MBY and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:51 AM, WxUSAF said: We're always all in, right? Now if I was inside the DC beltway or below the Fall Line, I'd be scaling my expectations appropriately, but I still feel fairly bullish for MBY and points north. Well I am in Fairfax... I am going for 1-2 here at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Warm layer is at 750mb, about 1.5C. Check Twisterdata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:56 AM, wxmeddler said: Warm layer is at 750mb, about 1.5C. Check Twisterdata. Thanks, the folks in DC needed a guy from PA to steer them straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:51 AM, WxUSAF said: We're always all in, right? Now if I was inside the DC beltway or below the Fall Line, I'd be scaling my expectations appropriately, but I still feel fairly bullish for MBY and points north.From wunderground for Columbia...."Heavy snow during the morning will taper off to light snow during the afternoon. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected." How likely is this?? I'd be thrilled with half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:58 AM, MDsnowPRO said: From wunderground... "Heavy snow during the morning will taper off to light snow during the afternoon. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected." How likely is this?? I'd be thrilled with half of that. They give me 3-5 and I live in the beltway. Extremely bullish, but I'm rooting for it for both of us. Good luck up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looking at the NAM on TwisterData site, looks like 2-3 inches for DC. Snow map is kinda hard to read but looks similar to Wx bell, just less accum everywhere. No 6" amounts until you get into PA or out in western MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:58 AM, MDsnowPRO said: From wunderground for Columbia.... "Heavy snow during the morning will taper off to light snow during the afternoon. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected." How likely is this?? I'd be thrilled with half of that. I think there's going to be a brutal gradient somewhere. I hope I'm north of it. I expect I'll be pretty close to it either way. If we're north of the gradient, yeah, 5-8" looks pretty solid. If we're on it or south of it, I'd say more like 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 3:00 AM, NorthArlington101 said: They give me 3-5 and I live in the beltway. Extremely bullish, but I'm rooting for it for both of us. Good luck up north! Same to you. Spent a fair amount of time and money hooking up plows, spreaders and placing equipment on sites. I made the call this morning to mobilize and I'm praying its the correct one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 2:58 AM, MDsnowPRO said: From wunderground for Columbia.... "Heavy snow during the morning will taper off to light snow during the afternoon. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected." How likely is this?? I'd be thrilled with half of that. thats interesting, the nws doesn't have a wsw, its an advisory for3-5, on FIOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 On 2/3/2014 at 3:01 AM, WxUSAF said: I think there's going to be a brutal gradient somewhere. I hope I'm north of it. I expect I'll be pretty close to it either way. If we're north of the gradient, yeah, 5-8" looks pretty solid. If we're on it or south of it, I'd say more like 1-2". That seems to generally fall around the Columbia area. A lot of our snow removal sites are in laurel, while our office is in Clarksville. Often we have good accumulating snows in the Columbia/Clarksville area, while laurel and burtonsville has wet pavement or a slushy coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 wunderground gives me 6-11", including 1-3 overnight. Honestly I'd be thrilled to see the lower end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm out. Pure rain event at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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