Biggest DC Bust

[MN Transplant]

March 6, 2013. I was only 3 at the time, so I wasn't really following weather at the time. But I was so upset by it that I started model watching this winter so I could learn to come up with my own forecasts and not trust the weathermen.

LOL

[Ltrain]

For me it was Dec 26th 2010. I had just started to really follow models and all I got was flurries. Meanwhile, right across the bay they got nailed. I remember watching Tony Pann that morning only predict about an inch and I Iaughed. I felt so dumb later on in the day.

[hosj III]

March 6, 2013. I was only 3 at the time, so I wasn't really following weather at the time. But I was so upset by it that I started model watching this winter so I could learn to come up with my own forecasts and not trust the weathermen.

 

You must be a weather prodigy.... wow....

[hosj III]

Can someone give me a list of over-performers to do a greatest DC boom poll?

 

I have only been tracking weather a few years, so my memory is kinda garbage.

1/2/14? 12/8/13? 

 

2-5/6-10 was? Forecasts were for 16-26 or so and Elkridge got 38?

[eurojosh]

For those interested, here is an awesome summary that ORH_wxman wrote of it.

 

 

 

Thanks for reposting this - an interesting piece of wx history...  What would be the analog these days?  GGEM leading the way and Euro/GFS crumbling at the last moment...?  I could see that happening.

[MN Transplant]

Can someone give me a list of over-performers to do a greatest DC boom poll?

I have only been tracking weather a few years, so my memory is kinda garbage.

1/2/14? 12/8/13?

2-5/6-10 was? Forecasts were for 16-26 or so and Elkridge got 38?

1/30/10 and 2/3/10.

[Deck Pic]

Can someone give me a list of over-performers to do a greatest DC boom poll?

 

I have only been tracking weather a few years, so my memory is kinda garbage.

1/2/14? 12/8/13? 

 

2-5/6-10 was? Forecasts were for 16-26 or so and Elkridge got 38?

 IT probably wouldnt be a DC boom poll if a Baltimore suburb overperformed

[LongRanger]

519

FXUS61 KBOX 042114 AMD

AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL AFTN..

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

414 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2001

SEVERE STORM COMPARABLE OR WILL EXCEED THE BLIZZARD OF 78 FOR

SNE WITH 60 HR DURATION OF SNW AND MAX INTENSITY OF WORST CONDS 18Z

TUE-00Z WED AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY TO OCCUR

PARTS OF E MA COAST...

KEY IS SLEET IN I 95 CORRIDOR...OTRW ITS GOING TO BE EXCEEDINGLY

DIFFICULT HERE FOR AT LEAST 3 DAYS.

FOR US HERE IN SNE A SLOW FADE OF STORM WED AM...SNOW QUITS NW TO SE

FIRST THEN THE WIND.

SFALL: 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE ALL SNOW AND SLEET REGION.

WSW WILL GO AT 5 PM...ZONES HOPEFULLY AT 6PM. THANK YOU FOR YOUR

PATIENCE ON DELAYED ZONES. WE/VE GOT 140 PM ZONES THE WAY WE WANT FOR

NOW AND WE WANT TO GET THIS NEXT PKG DECENTLY ACCURATE.

BLIZZARD WARNING WBIS AT 430 PM MA 4>7 12 14>16 AND NH 12 (MHT-LWM-

ORH). REQUIREMENTS FOR THIS DIRE PREDICTION ARE 3 OR MORE HRS <1/4MI

S+/BS AND G>30 KTS). 18Z ETA SAYS WE CAN INCLUDE BOSTON...ITS ON THE

CUSP WITH SLEET BUT WE ARE GOING FOR WORST CASE AND EVENTUALLY BLV WE

CAN HIT THIS. ETA TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO WARM.

HIGH WIND WARNING WBIS MA 19 22>24 FOR MON AFTN THRU TUE.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WBIS AT 430 PM FOR POTENTIAL DESTRUCTIVE FLOODING

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS HIGH TIDES. ANTICIPATING NNE WIND DIMSHG AT

44013 TO 35 TO 45 KTS AT 12Z WED. ANTICIPATE 3-5 FT SURGES AT HIGH

TIDES BOTH TUE AND WED.

HERES BOSTON TIDES

TIME ASTRO PREIDCTION WITHOUT SURGE AND WAVE!

3/5 640 AM 10.2

727 PM 8.9

3/6 743 AM 10.6

829 PM 8.9

3/7 845 AM 11.0

927 PM 10.0

IT IS MY BLV NEAR RECORD WAVE HTS PROBABLE 44013 AND POSSIBLY 44008

...TUESDAY A KEY DAY FOR DAMAGING COASTAL FLOODING. MAX WAVE HTS OF

30 TO 35 FT EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENT TUESDAY AT BOS BUOY AND 30 TO 40

FT FOR 44008.

POWER OUTAGES: SCT PWR OUTAGES FROM WIND AND OR SNOW PROBABLE ORH TO

BOS AND PVD AND CC.

WIND: FIRST PULSE 40-55KT 18Z-03Z MONDAY AFTN AND EVE THEN I THINK

IT CRANKS FROM THE NNE ON TUESDAY WITH SEVERE BLOWING AND

DRIFTING WHERE >6" OF SFALL. 65 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE PYM-PVC TO

ACK. REFIRE A SECOND WIND MAX..POTENTIALL STRONGER 50-65 KT

TUESDAY.

SFALL: 1-3 FT XCPT MIX ZONE 3-12" TOTAL STORM BY 06Z WED.

WORST AXIS FORESEEN SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST NW OF A HFD-BOS

LN. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS IN FUTURE RUNS.

RDF: DOES NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT ZFP WORDING... PLS DONT LOCK US

INTO RDF YET. JUST CANT GET IT DO WHAT WE WANT. EVENTUALLY IT WILL!

THEN IT WILL PRODUCE PICTURES ETC. YOU'LL LIKE IT. IF YOU USE THIS

PRODUCT...WE WANT TO KNOW AND YOUR IMPRESSIONS.

GWAVE: WATCH IT FOR EXCESSIVE MODULATATION OF THE QPF FIELDS

INCLUDING 4-5"/HR SNOWFALL RATE IN SNOW REGION (MAYBE SOMETIME

MON) AND CUTBACK ON QPF IN SLEET REGION SE MA AND RI. TX FOR COORD

T0 LOUIS UCCELLINI ON POTENTIAL AND HAVE OFFERED ITS POTENTIAL IN

THIS PGH PER MY OWN CONSIDERATION. HAVE NOT CONFIRMED ONE WILL HAPPEN

HERE.

BATTEN DOWN AND ROUND IT UP NOW. THIS IS GOING TO BE HUGE AND LONG

LASTING. WE WILL TRY TO GET A STMT OUT ON PREPAREDNESS NEEDS AND

COMPARISONS TO PAST BLIZZARDS SINCE 1978. OUR TAKE (TX RMT) IS THAT

THIS WILL B VLIZ OF 78 EVENT BUT FURTHER NORTHWEST!

MODELS: WE HOPE NOT TO LET YOU DOWN ON THIS BUT HAVE CONSIDERABLE

CONFIDENCE IN THE ETA ON HUGE EVENTS THO WE KNOW A SURPRISE

WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE.

PER HPC...ETA MODEL HAS BEEN EXCT ON BIG QPF NE USA N OF 40N

BUT WOEFUL BUSTS DC REGION..POSSIBLY BECAUSE BCS OF GULF

STREAM WALL SPINUP PBLM.

ETA IS PRIMARY GUIDE!

QPF: WE ARE GOING TO FCST A CT RVR VALLEY SHADOW GOING ONLY 1-2"

WE THERE...UPSLOPE THO WATCH OUT. WE ARE GOING 3 TO 5" W.E

QPF E MASS. 3-5" QPF PVD-PYM-ORH-LWM-BVY-BOS-PYM.

DRY SLOT MAY IMPACT SE NEW ENG FOR A TIME LATE MON?

CAVEAT: SOMETHING GOES WRONG WITH THESE BIG STORMS EVERY TIME. DONT

KNOW YET WHERE IT WILL B...BUT CONFIDENT WE/RE ON TRACK.

IF YOU KNOW...WHERE WE/RE LIKELY TO BUST. CALL ME BY 430 PM.

SKYWARN STARTS HER EIN OFFICE 4AM MONDAY. A LONG SEIGE!

CHH RAOB: 18Z RAOB IS IN. FURTHER INTERIM CHH RUNS SCHEDULED

06Z AND 18Z MON AND 06Z TUE.

ALTERNATE SOURCES OF ENERGY: BE PREPARED FOR POWER OUTAGES. DONT USE

CANDLES FOR LIGHT...CAUSES FIRE IF

KNOCKED OVR.

TRAVEL: NOT RECOMMENDED BY OUR OFFICE IN ALL SNOW REGION MONDAY-

TUESDAY THO THERE WILL B PRDS OF RECOVERY AS WE GO INTO

BANDED PCPN ALTERNATING LIGHT AND HVY. REMEMBER JUST A COUPLE

OF CARS IN ACCIDENTS CAN CLOG A ROAD AND IF ITS SNOWING

2"/HR - CAN BE BAD NEWS AND BASICALLY NOT GETTING HOME.

WARMEST QPF RROUTE...COASTAL 95 MONDAY....BUT WATCH IT

WHEN YOU GET INTO CT!!! IF YOU CATCH THE DRY SLOT RIGHT..

YOU GET HOME AOK.

AUTO SURVIVAL KITS: SUGGEST HAVING EXTRA CLOTHING AND WATER...PLUS

FLASHLIGHTS...BLANKETS...DONT RUN YOUR CAR IF

STALLED...AT LEAST NOT WITH WINDOWS CLOSED.

ENVISION LONG DURATION OF AIRPORT CLOSURE AND FERRY TRANSPORT SHUT

DOWN.

COASTAL FLOODING: PYM..PVC-CHH..ACK/MVY PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE

TUESDAY WITH MINOR XPCTD MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT HIGH

TIDE.

ROAD CREWS: ARDUOUS LONG DURATION EVENT...SFALL POSSIBLY LASTING 48

TO 60 HRS HOURS WITH POST STORM CLEANUP LASTING

THRU ALL OF WEDNESDAY INTO THRUSDAY.

STREET FLOODING: POSSIBLE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING PARTS

OF SE MA AND SRN RI ALONG OR 20 SE SE OF A PVD-PYM

LN IF MOSTLY RAIN. FRZN GROUND A PBLM.

RECOVERY: WED/THU.

ASOS: AFN AND BOS FIXED. AFN ASOS MAY GO BAD AGAIN BY MON MORNING

BUT ASOS FIXES IN SNOW REGION NEXT 2 DAYS MAY BE NEXT TO

IMPOSSIBLE.

LR: A NOTE...SUSPECT 1 OR POSSIBLY 2 MORE MDT OR GRTR SNOWSTORMS FOR

PARTS SNE BY 4/15. NAO STAYS NEG AND OTHER PATTERN INDICATORS

THAT OVERALL NORMAL WINTER TEMP PATTERN AND ACTIVE SRN STREAM

WITH SOME BLOCKING MAKES IT FAVORABLE AGAIN SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY

BTWN 3/14-21... HAVE NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND NOT TIME FOR

THIS NEXT 72 HRS.

FYI: I WORKED A STORM LIKE THIS IN MKE IN ~1982... DOUBLE SHORT WAVE

ROTATOR...WAS IMPRESSIVE GRB TO LSE!

.BOS...BLIZZARD WARNING NH 12 MA 4>7 12>16

WINTER STORM WARNING CT 2>4 RI 1>5...MA 2/3/8>11 17/18 NH 11

WXA TNGT AND MON AM MASS 19>24 RI 6/7 THEN WATCH FOR LATE

MON AFTN THRU TUE NIGHT FOR POTENTIAL LARGE BACKLASH.

CFA MA 7...14>16 19 22>24 TUE AND WED HIGH TIDES.

HIGH WIND WARNING MA 19 AND 22>24 MON AFTN THRU TUE WITH HIGH

WIND WARNING IMPLIED NE MA COAST IN BLIZ WARNING.

MARINE: STORM WARNING MON-TUE.

DRAG

[LongRanger]

Today rates a special mention due to the rapidity of the bust. At 4:30 AM zones said 6 to 10 inches here. Six hours later nada, and the back edge of precip is approaching. OTOH we all knew this one had a sharp cutoff.

[usedtobe]

How much did u call for

I don't remember, I just remember forecasting heavy snow and waking up to it being sunny. 

[Fozz]

Today was a pretty bad bust IMBY

[Amped]

This is the second time this winter we've been dealing with a slow coldfront.   Models are too fast with shallow cold airmasses moving over the mountains. Midnight last night was 10f warmer than 12z runs had them everywhere south of the Poconos and east of the Alleghenys. This time it also may resulted in 00z runs dramatically shifting the track and precip north into Allentown and Philly.

 

I am guessing the issue is due to models not resolving the terrain (mostly in PA) and boundary layer drag accurately. 

 

The GFS handled my area the best, it never showed more than 3" for Frederick.   

 

Also LWX should probably split my county into two zones since the elevation varies by more than 1000ft.