Biggest DC Bust

[Ian]

I still think 3-6-13 beats out march 2001 as worst bust ever. I was amazed on march 6 2013 how no one called bust until the event was half over.

A lot of that was people trying to save face by hoping for a miracle. I think people knew it was a bust before they let on in a number of cases. The fact that everyone went nuts with bumping the forecast up the night before was good icing.  It was a quality bust.

[HighStakes]

A lot of great managers in baseball and head coaches in football and basketball will tell you the bitter losses stay with you forever and in fact may be more painful than the great wins are rewarding. John Mcenroe has said many times that his 3 Wimbledon titles will never eliminate the epic loss he endured to Borg in the 1980 Wimbledon final. This way of thinking applies to snow obsessed people. Sure the great storms are elating and rewarding but they only help to slightly ease the pain of the great storms that we lose.

[Jebman]

Effin Mar 2001.

 

I still remember wakin up to crystal clear skies.

 

No consolation snow flurries

 

No consolation clouds

 

Nada

[Ger]

3/2001 was so long ago.its almost quaint. Technically, that was the biggest bust by far.

For me however 12/2010 was just too overwhelming... snow everywhere but here.. and after the magical run the previous winter. It was a slap back to reality

[87storms]

March 01 was too funny for me to be upset about. It was at least 60 the day before. Literally felt like a day in may outside. I had a feeling something was up with that one.

Dec 2000 was a miller b joke job.

We've had a few back in the day that the mountains ate up...clearly an issue that wasn't understood as well back in the 80s and 90s.

I'm not sure what to go with here but I'd probably say march 01 from a forecasting standpoint and maybe March 13 from a disappointment standpoint.

[MN Transplant]

I never really bought into Boxing Day, so I don't really consider it a bust a much as a gut-punch storm track. Even though I ended up with 4", 3/6/13 was pretty brutal and a complete disaster just a couple of miles from me.

[AdamHLG]

I was so upset March 01 that I drove from Baltimore across the bay bridge all the way to Cambridge in the eastern shore to see 1" of snow and then drove home. I think this was the storm if my memory is correct.

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[AdamHLG]

Does "the first week of February 2014 is gonna be awesome" count here or are we only looking backwards?

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[PrinceFrederickWx]

And why was 12-26-10 worse than 3-6-13? As I recall things were going downhill before Boxing Day even started. With noquester, we thought we had it in the bag the night before as all the short-range models were going insane.

 

BDB hurt even more because it was literally snowing north, south, east and west of me- that's the one I picked. Though 3/6/01 and 3/6/13 were almost as bad.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Also Feb. 21-22, 2011 could be added to the list (especially for DC)

[Fozz]

What was DC expected to get on 12/30/2000? I know that NJ and NYC got raked with snow while DC got sunshine, but like I said, I wasn't following the weather back then.

[mappy]

Don't remember march 2001

[Heisy]

Don't remember march 2001

 

For those interested, here is an awesome summary that ORH_wxman wrote of it.

 

Basically a ULL lobe was forecasted to rotate and phase in with a southern shortwave, ultimately bombing and stalling it out

 

I was only a 15 year old weenie at the time, but I was just starting to look at models and will never forget seeing the models drop 40" of snow in my city, then to only get an inch or 2 even when the GFS stuck with its gun of 6-12" only 24 hours out;

 

"There's a lot of "stories" behind it. First off, almost all guidance was going for a monster Mid-Atlantic HECS about 96-108 hours out. Back then the time range beyond 96h meant very little...but models actually did have it further out than that. Only a few model went further. The UKMET, ECMWF and the MRF (the extension of the AVN which is now the GFS all in one package) all called for it. By the time we got to 84 hours out, all models showed it still...basically 2-4 feet for DC-NYC with Boston getting fringed....except the old ETA-x....the old ETA went to 60 hours, but the "ETA-x" was the ETA to 84h which eventually became the NAM (run under the ETA) to 84 hours but is now run under the WRF and not the ETA anymore...ETA has been retired from operational use, only used in the SREF now. That run of the ETA-x had the storm much further north and crushing New England while limiting the snow in the Mid-Atlantic. I believe this was Friday at 12z. Nobody took it seriously as it was the ETA extended beyond its already 60h limit. 

The next run at 00z Friday night, the ETA-x showed it again, but the other models held serve....the ECMWF didn't run at 00z back then...only at 12z, so its solution was non-existent. It was the best model back then too like recent years. We were now at 72h out or closer. The 12z runs came out on Saturday morning and they shifted north, limiting the snow for DC (probably from 2-3 feet to about 1-2 feet), but from Wilmington DE northward it was still monstrous except the UKMET shifted slightly north of that, to Philly and northward. 

A little side note. The AVN had performed absolutely brilliantly in the other big east coast storm on December 30, 2000 and also on the December 3, 2000 North Carolina/Virginia bust. The ETA hadbeen way too bullish and far west in both events while the AVN schooled it. So a lot of attention and credence was being given the AVN. That was a big factor in the forecast IMHO. 

After those Saturday morning runs at 12z (while the ETA showed a huge hit north again at 48-60h now in the operational run)...the forecast was still for a monster M.A. hit. The 12z ECMWF wouldn't come out until around 8pm that evening. It used to come around at that time back then. As 8pm rolled around, the ECMWF all of the sudden jumped way north and agreed with the ETA solution. But most forecasters disregarded it as it had been pretty steadfast before (maybe a burp run?) and the AVN was holding really steady and it had done so well on East Coast storms that winter. By Saturday night, the GGEM started to go north, the AVN held serve once again (having been the model of choice all winter), the ETA went north again taking Philly and nearly NYC out of the huge snow and hammering New England/Boston with a storm like Feb 1978. UKMET I don't recall what happened, but I know the forecast stuck close to the AVN. 

Again there was no 00z ECMWF run back then. Only 12z. 

By 12z Sunday morning just 24h before the event, the AVN once again gave a monster hit to the mid-atlantic except it shifted a bit north...it was mostly Philly northward. The ETA gave New England a huge HECS again, the GGEM finally went well north...and so did the UKMET. The ECMWF would have to wait until 8pm as usual. Most forecaster were trusting the AVN because it had served them well that winter after the obscene ETA busts and the AVN had nailed two major east coast storms. 

When 8pm came in, the writing was on the wall if there was any doubt left. It was way north and took Philly and possibly even NYC out fo the big snows, though NYC was still on the line. 

The forecasts started being revived when the 00z AVN came in late that Sunday night and it finally jumped north, but still not far enough....it still gave big snows to Philly (but not historic totals) and historic totals to NYC. I think this is when most operational forecasters knew something was terribly wrong. You have to remember it was so hard to trust any model that winter and the AVN was the best until that point. 

That was the first storm that I recall Dave Tolleris (whether you like him or not) came up with the old "EE rule"...when the ETA and ECMWF (both start with "E") agree, you don't go against them. I was lurking on ne.weather back then. When the EC came north to agree with the ETA back on Saturday, he said the M.A. was cooked and got a lot of crap for it on the boards as you can imagine. 

That's just my personal recollection of all of that storm. I don't claim for all of it to be 100% accurate, but I usually remember things very vividly, so I think at least most of it is right. There was a lot of controversy and talk amongst the weather people both on ne.weather and the NWS back then. It ended up being a huge interior New England and NY State HECS. Even the models at the last second kind of busted at Boston...only getting 10" while they were forecasted for double that...but the suburbs got all the snow. 

Very incredible storm both from a forecasting standpoint and also as a student observer back then when I first learning a lot of the intricacies of forecasting and models. "

[JamieOber]

March 2001 by a long shot.

 

If you think March 2013 was worst, just comfort yourself that in March 2025, there will be another bust and people will try to claim that one was worst too.

[H2O]

I voted for every single one. They all sucked

[JamieOber]

Rented 4 movies. Watched none

 

 

We were young and dumb then.  I was a 26 yo weenie who would rather sit in front of my powerful 1.5 Mbps cable internet all day watching the ETA and MRF than social or be uh..intimate.    smh  

Did you guys read JB then?

 

He had the following post day before...in the days leading up he was using baseball analogies about how the "pattern will hit a home run" so keep that in mind:

 

LATEST ETA NOT ONLY KNOCKS BALL OUT OF PARK BUT PUTS BALL IN ORBIT...DETAILS LATER ABOUT WHAT LIKELY WILL BE A LEGEND FOR EAST COAST

 

So yeah, hype was extreme.

[Heisy]

What was DC expected to get on 12/30/2000? I know that NJ and NYC got raked with snow while DC got sunshine, but like I said, I wasn't following the weather back then.

 

Basically the ETA was showing probably like 8-14" 18 hours out while, the GFS/EURO were against it, however most of the mets were sticking with the ETA...I remember around the time the 00z models came the ETA had adjusted well north because I remember Cantore in DC saying he was surprised with the latest model run .12/30/2000 had a crazy cutoff, I got lucky with 8" while people just to my NW got 0. 

[WVclimo]

March 2001. I remember the model shift north at 12Z Saturday. Even though the runs kept DC at a foot+ you could already see it slipping away. I spent that whole day watching WV satellite, waiting for that vort to show its hand and drop south out of Canada. Agonizing.

[GEOS5ftw]

Had to go with March 2001 just because the expectations had been built impossibly high, and we didn't even get a pity inch out of it (I think some snow showers did happen as the vort came overhead about 24 hours too late for the phase, but that was it). Last March it seemed like we were still in the game even as the day went on, just needed the rates which never really happened, though some suburbs did get 3-5 which wasn't as much of a relative fall from expectation as 2001.

 

December 30 2000 was another one I remember...not sure why I remember this but about 5 days out one of the models (euro?) had the NS vort phasing with a southern wave and giving a really classic miller A to everyone...then the southern wave trended faster and the phase was off the table, but then the northern vort trended stronger so that a Miller B looked possible, and the ETA with it's west bias put DC in play but there was a sharp cutoff, which ended up being over Philly in reality. I remember getting out of a movie around 1am expecting it to be cloudy and maybe some light snow starting, but it was clear and I think that is when I knew that it wasn't going to happen.

[HighStakes]

Did you guys read JB then?

 

He had the following post day before...in the days leading up he was using baseball analogies about how the "pattern will hit a home run" so keep that in mind:

 

LATEST ETA NOT ONLY KNOCKS BALL OUT OF PARK BUT PUTS BALL IN ORBIT...DETAILS LATER ABOUT WHAT LIKELY WILL BE A LEGEND FOR EAST COAST

 

So yeah, hype was extreme.

Started reading him shortly after that. Of course you know how the following winter ended up and how badly he busted. Then he rebounded the following winter with the El Nino. I think Accuweather Pro was launched right before PDII.

[BlizzardNole]

March 2001 by 100 miles. I felt almost physically sick over that one.

FSU sports and snow are two big things for me -- the Noles had just lost the national title game to Oklahoma, starting what we refer to as "The Lost Decade" and the knee-to-the-groin March 2001 bust was followed by the non-winter of 2001/2002.

[Heisy]

Had to go with March 2001 just because the expectations had been built impossibly high, and we didn't even get a pity inch out of it (I think some snow showers did happen as the vort came overhead about 24 hours too late for the phase, but that was it). Last March it seemed like we were still in the game even as the day went on, just needed the rates which never really happened, though some suburbs did get 3-5 which wasn't as much of a relative fall from expectation as 2001.

 

December 30 2000 was another one I remember...not sure why I remember this but about 5 days out one of the models (euro?) had the NS vort phasing with a southern wave and giving a really classic miller A to everyone...then the southern wave trended faster and the phase was off the table, but then the northern vort trended stronger so that a Miller B looked possible, and the ETA with it's west bias put DC in play but there was a sharp cutoff, which ended up being over Philly in reality. I remember getting out of a movie around 1am expecting it to be cloudy and maybe some light snow starting, but it was clear and I think that is when I knew that it wasn't going to happen.

 

Dec 30 2000 was hyped 4-7 days out because the pattern looked amazingly favorable. I remember that phase issue too, I'll never forget watching TWC and the on-camera met. said (I paraphrase), "This storm came very close to phasing with the southern branch, and if it had we'd been talking about a superstorm"...that stung. 

[Ji]

Feb 3,2014

 

Models gave JYO an inch of liquid with temps at 31-32. We got a dusting

[Swiscaster]

I was here for all those busts, but for some reason, I don't remember a single one of them except Boxing Day. We had a bust last March? No recollection.

[hosj III]

I was here for all those busts, but for some reason, I don't remember a single one of them except Boxing Day. We had a bust last March? No recollection.

 

Basically, 6-10 inches was forecasted for I-95 with a foot to the west and two feet in the mountains. The city got nothing, the western suburbs got 4-8 inches and the mountains got a foot.

[MillvilleWx]

March 2001 for me is an easy choice. I was only 10 at the time, but I can still remember my dad telling if this storm can to fruition we easily have the largest snowfall we may ever see. Cold rain later....

[mattie g]

March 6, 2013. I was only 3 at the time, so I wasn't really following weather at the time. But I was so upset by it that I started model watching this winter so I could learn to come up with my own forecasts and not trust the weathermen.

[yoda]

March 6, 2013. I was only 3 at the time, so I wasn't really following weather at the time. But I was so upset by it that I started model watching this winter so I could learn to come up with my own forecasts and not trust the weathermen.

 

Uh what?

[usedtobe]

I consider March 01  my biggest forecast bust for a snowstorm in the DC area.  

[Ji]

I consider March 01 my biggest forecast bust for a snowstorm in the DC area.

How much did u call for