Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 At hours 33 and 36 it looks like there's some very light precipitation in the Triangle. Less than a tenth of an inch total though. Thanks! I'd really like to get about .5 or so with that first band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Sounds like wxsouth is leaning towards all in. Going to be an exciting ride the next few days. I'll be travelling from Hickory back to Upstate SC on Tuesday afternoon so the timing is starting to worry me a bit. https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwertyu Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hey guys, I was wondering if y'all could give me some advice. I'm driving from Shelby NC to Chapel Hill Wed. for the Duke - UNC game. Should I leave Tues. afternoon or do y'all think I would be OK leaving Wed. morning? If I'm reading correct the second heavier wave will be coming in sometime Wed. I understand this is somewhat of an IMBY post but I don't know of anywhere else to go to get advice. I sure can't rely on the TV forecasts!!! Thanks for any advice y'all can give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 RAH changed grids for RDU to rain on Wed, thinks wintery precip will be confined to the west, makes sense, models probably under doing the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 RAH changed grids for RDU to rain on Wed, thinks wintery precip will be confined to the west, makes sense, models probably under doing the WAA. I thought we had a strong wedge here. All I read in the storm thread is that every run is colder colder colder. Wouldn't our surface temps be below freezing at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 RAH changed grids for RDU to rain on Wed, thinks wintery precip will be confined to the west, makes sense, models probably under doing the WAA. LOL..Don't let Brick see that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I thought we had a strong wedge here. All I read in the storm thread is that every run is colder colder colder. Wouldn't our surface temps be below freezing at least? They treat Euro as the almighty one and we hover around 29-30F during peak precip, if it's 32 it's probably a cold rain. The Euro is so strong it's going to warm us. They are better than us, if they thought this had a chance at all they would be trumpeting this as 3-4" of snow with 1-2" of sleet would be crazy bad, so they must not be buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 They treat Euro as the almighty one and we hover around 29-30F during peak precip, if it's 32 it's probably a cold rain. The Euro is so strong it's going to warm us. They are better than us, if they thought this had a chance at all they would be trumpeting this as 3-4" of snow with 1-2" of sleet would be crazy bad, so they must not be buying it. Ok, but I wanna know one thing. Are you all in or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 They treat Euro as the almighty one and we hover around 29-30F during peak precip, if it's 32 it's probably a cold rain. The Euro is so strong it's going to warm us. They are better than us, if they thought this had a chance at all they would be trumpeting this as 3-4" of snow with 1-2" of sleet would be crazy bad, so they must not be buying it. I have to admit the RAH office is one of the best around. They usually do a fantastic job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 News 14 showed the euro amts (7+ for mby) but they said they are leaning towards the gfs and only saying 2-3 inches right now. Of course they included it could be less if the moisture moves south or more if it moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We'll see what their discussion says. They'll at least have to acknowledge the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 CAE had question and answer session on fb.....here was my question... For the upcoming system, do you believe the 2m temps that are being modeled are too warm due to a perfectly placed cad? It looks to me that mcn/ags/cae would be ground zero for a nasty ice storm here was their answer Michelle, this does look like a near classic CAD event and the models do tend to be a bit warm in the near surface layer with these events, so an ice storm in the Midlands cannot be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'll jump in when I feel like mby will get at least 5 inches. I think it will take at least that to close my work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 When replying to a quoted post that contains a picture......PLEASE delete the picture before posting your response....thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ok, but I wanna know one thing. Are you all in or not? I think we see 1-3" but when the SLP starts coming up the coast we flip to rain, think Dec 2009, that SLP tracked over Hatteras just like the Euro is showing now and no high pressure, we have a retreating high pressure that has shifted into the Atlantic, no way we don't flip, and I think RAH believes that too. I remember tracking the Dec 2009 storm about this range and we were right on the edge of rain/snow and what happened....This isn't me being pessimistic, this is me studying old analogs how things worked out. I don't ever remember a storm that ended being colder than modeled, think last week when FAY/PGV had all the mixing, it turned out to be warmer than modeled. We must be different from GA for CAD, maybe there temps are warmer on models than what verifies but for us it's always warmer than what models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think we see 1-3" but when the SLP starts coming up the coast we flip to rain, think Dec 2009, that SLP tracked over Hatteras just like the Euro is showing now and no high pressure, we have a retreating high pressure that has shifted into the Atlantic, no way we don't flip, and I think RAH believes that too. I remember tracking the Dec 2009 storm about this range and we were right on the edge of rain/snow and what happened....This isn't me being pessimistic, this is me studying old analogs how things worked out. I don't ever remember a storm that ended being colder than modeled, think last week when FAY/PGV had all the mixing, it turned out to be warmer than modeled. We must be different from GA for CAD, maybe there temps are warmer on models than what verifies but for us it's always warmer than what models show. I would normally agree with you, but since I'm all in....maybe we'll get Nam'ed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just got nam'ed! Again at 18z two days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just got nam'ed! Again at 18z two days in a row. This kind of namming is okay. It would be nice to get some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Latest GSP snow total graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah, all these good runs and still all the negativity, wow! 90% of people on this board will get something other than rain, IMO ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Latest GSP snow total graphic Notice that that is only valid through Wednesday at 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 RAH changed grids for RDU to rain on Wed, thinks wintery precip will be confined to the west, makes sense, models probably under doing the WAA. They seem to be one of the only ones not forecasting much from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would normally agree with you, but since I'm all in....maybe we'll get Nam'ed!! Well that was poetic, as soon as I typed that the NAM brought the over-running back and RAH just updated there GRIDS showing massive winter storm here, still not all in, waiting until 12z tomorrows runs. NAM does blow past 36 hours, if the RGEM shows that I will go eat something unhealthy like Bojangles :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well that was poetic, as soon as I typed that the NAM brought the over-running back and RAH just updated there GRIDS showing massive winter storm here, still not all in, waiting until 12z tomorrows runs. NAM does blow past 36 hours, if the RGEM shows that I will go eat something unhealthy like Bojangles :-) Yeah I was sure the NAM was going to phase later and destroy NC and then I was like ruh ruh why did you have to phase then why couldn't you have waited another 100 miles...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah, all these good runs and still all the negativity, wow! 90% of people on this board will get something other than rain, IMO ! Probably because nobody can tell exactly what the "something" will be. I mean I can't tell (nor can people a lot smarter about this than I am) if we're getting sleet, freezing rain, or snow here - or if it will simply be a rain event. And we are not much more than 24 hours out from the start now. I guess I'll buy a little bit of extra food in the morning, just in case. Maybe dig the extra flashlights out of the camp kit in the garage. But I suspect it's going to be just like the storm a couple of weeks ago - nobody will know what's going to fall until after it's already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well that was poetic, as soon as I typed that the NAM brought the over-running back and RAH just updated there GRIDS showing massive winter storm here, still not all in, waiting until 12z tomorrows runs. NAM does blow past 36 hours, if the RGEM shows that I will go eat something unhealthy like Bojangles :-) Haha! How can the nam put down so much snow? Looks like the 850s aren't there. And what's up with the snowfall map in centimeters? Let's do one in fathoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Whoever talked about RAH forecasting rain on Wednesday.... Check this out. Looks like they're all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just for fun, RAH wants to give us some practice flurries tomorrow afternoon/night THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SMEARING LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z TO 06Z...WITH EMPHASIZE ON THE WORD "LIGHT"...WITH AVERAGE LIQUID AMOUNTS OF ONLY 0.03 TO 0.05". BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC WETBULBS...THE AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRIANGLE(OR US 64 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD)...WITH A LIGHT RAIN/MIX SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Haha! How can the nam put down so much snow? Looks like the 850s aren't there. And what's up with the snowfall map in centimeters? Let's do one in fathoms. That was my bad. Trying to grab a map in haste didn't even see CM beside it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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