burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Agree, the front end is our chance for a good snow, or I should say was our chance. Still think that GSP/CLT is in a great spot for the front end snow, still like 8-10" for them. RDU is just to far north. If you get a good feed of moisture like the RGEM has then it will happen for RDU. Hopefully the NAM can come back around to a solution like it had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 They keep upping CLT. Daddy like. This is a rare thing to get from GSP so early.And you notice this period ends 1am Tues. from my research here...the heaviest precip will be well after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Too far north for snow is a really sad, sad thing. Haha! Lol! The storm is literally going to go underneath us and then curl around us :-). We will get 1-2" with some icing followed by a torrential downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If you get a good feed of moisture like the RGEM has then it will happen for RDU. Hopefully the NAM can come back around to a solution like it had yesterday. Rooting for you guys, HKY/AVL too, been a long time for you guys too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 And you notice this period ends 1am Tues. from my research here...the heaviest precip will be well after that. Very good point tony!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Rooting for you guys, HKY/AVL too, been a long time for you guys too. I love where I sit, but the old adage of I'll believe it when I see it was never truer until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 And you notice this period ends 1am Tues. from my research here...the heaviest precip will be well after that. Yep you could probably tack on 2 inches or so. I feel very confident we get at least 4 inches here. Been a long time since I was in that zone where I could be the bullseye. Still a few days to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I love where I sit, but the old adage of I'll believe it when I see it was never truer until today.You deserve it after all your PBP and analysis of models this winter. This one is for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not sure what Atlanta is doing under a winter storm watch. I guess they are preventing another disaster, but they are probably going to get all rain especially in situations like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not sure what Atlanta is doing under a winter storm watch. I guess they are preventing another disaster, but they are probably going to get all rain especially in situations like these.how much for southwest nc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 how much for southwest nc?5-8 inches. Also depends on if any sleet mixes in to cut down on accumulations.Remember these amounts when the storm is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Where can I sign up for the Legion of Gloom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Where can I sign up for the Legion of Gloom? Where's your optimism from yesterday? You know things are bad when we're excited about the chance of seeing 2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Where's your optimism from yesterday? You know things are bad when we're excited about the chance of seeing 2" of snow. I would take 2" of snow right now, hasn't happened since 2010 for RDU. Probably looking at 1" with sleet/frzn to all rain. Three small events this year ain't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wasn't really bummed about the NAM but the RGEM definitely is a bummer. Where is Widre at, this is going to be an epic failure again, only this time we don't get model runs bumping up precip as we get closer only to fall apart as it starts, this will be a case where the QPF just trickles down off the models like an hour glass. We will be rationalizing every day, well 3-5" is great....well 2-4" is OK....1-2" would still be a victory...a light glaze on the trees is our best shot. Bump...looks like we are at the 1-2" would still be a victory stage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Same here. 2011 was the last time mby had over 2". I assume lots were hoping yesterday boom NAM runs would ring true... I would take 2" of snow right now, hasn't happened since 2010 for RDU. Probably looking at 1" with sleet/frzn to all rain. Three small events this year ain't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would take 2" of snow right now, hasn't happened since 2010 for RDU. Probably looking at 1" with sleet/frzn to all rain. Three small events this year ain't bad.Didn't RDU get 3 inches with the storm 2 weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Didn't RDU get 3 inches with the storm 2 weeks ago? Nope, huge bust for us again, places south and east did. The coast jackpotted. We got 1.5" officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Within the last couple of days, I've gone from... "Holy cow! We could get a foot of snow!" ...to... "Whoa! We could get half a foot of snow!" ...to... "Hmmm. We might get a couple of inches of snow and sleet." ...to... "I'm ready for spring." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just got up and read the storm thread from last nights discussion.... It was very informative.... Ol' Shawn told us a good 40 times about how scared he is of the incoming ice storm.... And what would I do w/o knowing the total qpf for frostys backyard after every model run? Lmao guys, please know, I'm joking. Regardless, I digest(eating breakfast....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good news is the Euro is usually too amped, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not sure what Atlanta is doing under a winter storm watch. I guess they are preventing another disaster, but they are probably going to get all rain especially in situations like these. Agree, but not because I don't think there won't be snow, but because their snowfall forecast for this first round would suggest nothing higher than a WWA criteria at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 5-8 inches. Also depends on if any sleet mixes in to cut down on accumulations. Remember these amounts when the storm is over. you and I actually agree I have been thinking 6-8. Not too worried about the sleet if we get some that means we get a bigger dump of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Agree, but not because I don't think there won't be snow, but because their snowfall forecast for this first round would suggest nothing higher than a WWA criteria at best. This has been addressed many times. A winter storm watch is just that.... a watch. Going from a winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory is not a downgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This has been addressed many times. A winter storm watch is just that.... a watch. Going from a winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory is not a downgrade.How is that not a downgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 How is that not a downgrade? A watch is the precursor to an advisory or a warning. Just bc you have a watch doesn't mean you're getting a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 How is that not a downgrade? Different criteria doesn't mean the impact would be any less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This has been addressed many times. A winter storm watch is just that.... a watch. Going from a winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory is not a downgrade. I never said that. EDIT: I guess I don't understand why a WWA couldn't serve the same purpose of a Winter Storm Watch like you said just to watch, wait, and see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nope, huge bust for us again, places south and east did. The coast jackpotted. We got 1.5" officially.Wake Forest got 3 inches.But 90% of the time the big one never works out for central NC. Something seems to happen 48 hours out to make it either north, south, east, or west of us. Even more the last three years. It seems to be all around us but not right here. I guess it could still be a mess here this week, though. A few inches of snow with ice on top would still be bad for driving. And it could cause power outages depending on how much ice we get. Also, RaleighWx seems to think the last Euro op is too far west with the low, and the ensembles support that. He said the mean still has 7 inches of snow for RDU. Whatever will happen will happen. And we have seen systems come in bigger than forecasted before. But also lesser than forecasted. It really can go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good news is the Euro is usually too amped, right? Lets hope need it to not come up the coast and instead just kinda ease on out with that low, better yet we need that front S/W to say Eff the models and be a little bad ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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