packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah, follows the same logic as the latest NAM with weaker front end energy and less influence with the polar s/w, based on the precip shield compared to the last run. That was a drastic change, as was the NAM. Maybe the GFS is onto something, for all the beatings it took. Though we don't know what either SR model would have done with the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wasn't really bummed about the NAM but the RGEM definitely is a bummer. Where is Widre at, this is going to be an epic failure again, only this time we don't get model runs bumping up precip as we get closer only to fall apart as it starts, this will be a case where the QPF just trickles down off the models like an hour glass. We will be rationalizing every day, well 3-5" is great....well 2-4" is OK....1-2" would still be a victory...a light glaze on the trees is our best shot. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 DT speaks better english than what he types. I was expecting all kinds of jumps and jitters the same way he types. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Really?Duh! Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That was a drastic change, as was the NAM. Maybe the GFS is onto something, for all the beatings it took. Though we don't know what either SR model would have done with the 2nd wave. Well the 12z RGEM was even weaker than the 0z.. it's going to wobble depending on the strengths and speed of these vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Too busy watching the Carolina game on the DVR.wow, I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, our local met on Fox at 10pm acts like nothing big is coming. Supposedly there is a chance of some precipitation starting at 1 am Tuesday through Tuesday night, then it is out of here according to him. He says there is a chance of "moderate precip". That is in stark contrast to all of the models we have been looking at the last day or two. What do they know that we don't????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wasn't really bummed about the NAM but the RGEM definitely is a bummer. Where is Widre at, this is going to be an epic failure again, only this time we don't get model runs bumping up precip as we get closer only to fall apart as it starts, this will be a case where the QPF just trickles down off the models like an hour glass. We will be rationalizing every day, well 3-5" is great....well 2-4" is OK....1-2" would still be a victory...a light glaze on the trees is our best shot. Lmao as brick would say "those pessimists" . But I say welcome to reality. :lmao: I'm serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 wow, I'm impressed. Yeah, my son had a game at 11 and then went with the wife and kids o the Lego Movie. A lot easier to watch the game when knowing they won. By the way, The Lego Movie is great. Really funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lmao as brick would say "those pessimists" . But I say welcome to reality. I wouldn't expect anything different from you two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, our local met on Fox at 10pm acts like nothing big is coming. Supposedly there is a chance of some precipitation starting at 1 am Tuesday through Tuesday night, then it is out of here according to him. He says there is a chance of "moderate precip". That is in stark contrast to all of the models we have been looking at the last day or two. What do they know that we don't?????That making predictions of big wintry events and them busting(which this far out is an easy bet), makes them more foolish than by being overly conservative, and maybe under predicting a itThey want to keep their jobs.Widre is the message board example.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Everybody will be upbeat here in a few when GFS comes in looking like the earlier NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wasn't really bummed about the NAM but the RGEM definitely is a bummer. Where is Widre at, this is going to be an epic failure again, only this time we don't get model runs bumping up precip as we get closer only to fall apart as it starts, this will be a case where the QPF just trickles down off the models like an hour glass. We will be rationalizing every day, well 3-5" is great....well 2-4" is OK....1-2" would still be a victory...a light glaze on the trees is our best shot.No, it's got the classic look to it. A few exciting model runs a few days out. Always potential for change? Then the s/ws are in the right place. The precip shield isn't consistent. BL temps start to be a problem. My prediction is that Tuesday morning we'll be sitting in the mid to upper 30s with patchy blobs of precip stretching across northern AL, GA and upstate SC. We'll get a few rain or snow showers and then clearing in the evening. The second "event" will be all rain, or out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No, it's got the classic look to it. A few exciting model runs a few days out. Always potential for change? Then the s/ws are in the right place. The precip shield isn't consistent. BL temps start to be a problem. My prediction is that Tuesday morning we'll be sitting in the mid to upper 30s with patchy blobs of precip stretching across northern AL, GA and upstate SC. We'll get a few rain or snow showers and then clearing in the evening. The second "event" will be all rain, or out to sea. And here comes the trifecta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It irks me that robert was supposed to call into the radio show and then basically backed out of it. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 And here comes the trifecta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well the 12z RGEM was even weaker than the 0z.. it's going to wobble depending on the strengths and speed of these vorts. Looking at the last 3 runs of the RGEM, the changes are so subtle, shows the fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It irks me that robert was supposed to call into the radio show and then basically backed out of it. Strange. It irks me you didn't call DT and call him out on his Facebook post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No, it's got the classic look to it. A few exciting model runs a few days out. Always potential for change? Then the s/ws are in the right place. The precip shield isn't consistent. BL temps start to be a problem. My prediction is that Tuesday morning we'll be sitting in the mid to upper 30s with patchy blobs of precip stretching across northern AL, GA and upstate SC. We'll get a few rain or snow showers and then clearing in the evening. The second "event" will be all rain, or out to sea. Sounds like a pretty typical RDU winter storm to me, now I am pumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It irks me that robert was supposed to call into the radio show and then basically backed out of it. Strange. He told me he had his ringer turned off and forgot about it? They were going to call him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I wouldn't expect anything different from you two. Well a turd is still a turd if its dressed in powdered sugar and sprinkles. According to the both the euro/gfs so far this year I've should have had about 10 feet of snow with a 4ft glacier imby. It hasn't happened. We have a good solid month and half before all chances of snow are gone for the year but yet to have a big snow storm verify. If it hasn't happened yet it will not happen at all. Everybody will be upbeat here in a few when GFS comes in looking like the earlier NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looking at the last 3 runs of the RGEM, the changes are so subtle, shows the fine line. I ran a trend loop on the model center and it's really just slower with the precip. In fact, the precip expands back from OK on the latest run, while the NAM took it out (due to the polar s/w phasing in) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It irks me you didn't call DT and call him out on his Facebook post.Ditto. He had the potential right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We should start calling packbacker, ncweather, and a Widre the Legion Of Gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It irks me you didn't call DT and call him out on his Facebook post. Not worth my time. I admit; I thought about it. In the end I would have been banned for life on these forums etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Storm tracker is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 LOL, GFS trends drier for NC, good night Not even close, much weaker with the southern wave, no precip at all into NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 LOL, GFS trends drier for NC, good night It's the GFS, no one should expect different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 He told me he had his ringer turned off and forgot about it? They were going to call him... Thanks! Maybe the guys north of here didnt want it to turn into a "SE winter" thing... ;/ I heard you call up though.. good talks man; good talks. Kinda forced them into focusing on the South East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's the GFS, no one should expect different. Every model was worse tonight, NAM, RGEM, GFS, 0-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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