packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Guess I will ask it here since it is not clear to me in the storm thread. Is the NAM all snow and are most of the models showing just one round on Tuesday now? Call the radio show and ask DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Dave just gave me a shout out!I missed that,what did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is there any reason to even run the NAM? All anyone ever does is talk about how it has no skill at any range for any product it produces. Yeah, but you go with it's bias of being to wet and to far NW, and if you take that into account that's not good, but we are talking about the NAM at 60 hours, but you could tell by 48 hours it wasn't going to be as good. I think the NAM is pretty good inside 36 hours and plus the energy doesn't get on the conus until tomorrow afternoon, so would think 12z runs tomorrow will be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ha! Cold rain gets a shoutout in most any SE snow discussion. I think you picked your screen name just to get the most pub. Big Frosty on the radio now!! All the celebs out tonight! Well, it's common, I'll give you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Call the radio show and ask DT. I asked in the storm thread but I got deleted even though there is more banter in there than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I should call about and ask about Waycross? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What did they say about the NAM Everywhere but RDU will get measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I should call about and ask about Waycross? Yes. They would be like, "What's a Waycross?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Bostic, NC? Is that StrongWx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Everywhere but RDU will get measurable snow. Sounds about right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Bostic, NC? Is that StrongWx? Got to be. I've been to Bostic. Tens of people live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wes is bullish for NC. We should probably just go ahead and go all in tonight, Pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Got to be. I've been to Bostic. Tens of people live there. Wow, that's more than Waycross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 4km NAM says game on still! It's got be better right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 4km NAM starts Monday afternoon in western NC, big hit for all of NC, more to come after 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 4km NAM says game on still! It's got be better right! Let's see some maps! How far out does the 4km go? 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Always divide any NAM qpf by 4 to get close to the right amount. You have a better chance of an upside surprise that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wow, that's more than Waycross.No its not.No snow for you since you said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Let's see some maps! How far out does the 4km go? 48 hours? 60 hours. Below is the latest RGEM, gut punch for sure, backed way off it's 18z run, only goes out to 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 4K NAM doesn't have the precip drop-off in the immediate east of the mountains like the regular NAM does. Here's one image at 57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Always divide any NAM qpf by 4 to get close to the right amount. You have a better chance of an upside surprise that way.The NAM tends to over do precip this far out. It was spitting out ridiculous totals for the event last week.2+ amounts it had for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wes is bullish for NC. We should probably just go ahead and go all in tonight, Pack. Wes is the best bellwether on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wes is the best bellwether on this board Yes sir. Very level-headed, unbiased, and experiecned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The NAM tends to over do precip this far out. It was spitting out ridiculous totals for the event last week.2+ amounts it had for some areas. Good rule of thumb is to take the model that spits out the lowest precip/snow totals, win a lot of money with that hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 DT speaks better english than what he types. I was expecting all kinds of jumps and jitters the same way he types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wes is bullish for NC. We should probably just go ahead and go all in tonight, Pack. What did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wasn't really bummed about the NAM but the RGEM definitely is a bummer. Where is Widre at, this is going to be an epic failure again, only this time we don't get model runs bumping up precip as we get closer only to fall apart as it starts, this will be a case where the QPF just trickles down off the models like an hour glass. We will be rationalizing every day, well 3-5" is great....well 2-4" is OK....1-2" would still be a victory...a light glaze on the trees is our best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What did he say?should have listened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 60 hours. Below is the latest RGEM, gut punch for sure, backed way off it's 18z run, only goes out to 48 hours Yeah, follows the same logic as the latest NAM with weaker front end energy and less influence with the polar s/w, based on the precip shield compared to the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 should have listened... Too busy watching the Carolina game on the DVR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.