mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The energy in here is terrible today. I dont even know how to explain it.It's like we turned into the MA thread over a few bad runs! I'm riding the Euro train till the wheels fall off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's mostly my fault. Sorry man. I'll take a break for the rest of the day and maybe come back strong tomorrow.... unless the 18z GFS hooks us up. It's bo- time! Get you a couple of them heart shaped boberry biscuits, a gravy biscuit , and a large seasoned fry! See you back for 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 They're talking about the winter storm on the radio now.....kiss of death. I've said that to myself too when i hear or see that on tv/radio. It reminds me too of being scared to tell people of a possible storm out of fear of jinxing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Bitter-casting is no better than wish-casting.Strongly agree! It's no better coming on here and saying - all rain for NC, or of that nature when models clearly don't show that . Than coming in here posting DGEX maps as the truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There is just no way it's all freezing rain in Charlotte. There's going to be a significant period of sleet and or snow or both. Per Euro, the 850's are only below 0 for the first 0.1" of precip, after that 850's are above 0 and the surface is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I go to a movie and come back to this... I need to take an afternoon outing more often My storm looks to be a whopper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What am I missing on GSO? As far as I can see it would be mostly snow and then ZR. Nope, 0.6" of precip falls in a 6 hour period when 850's transition from negative to positive, so guessing you get half of that as snow, so 0.3" of snow and test frzn per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The energy in here is terrible today. I dont even know how to explain it. People have some funny ideas about run to run changes for a storm so far out. If it's not perfect on each run it clearly means it's going to be rain or partly sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It seems there are some things being said that are really contradicting what even some mets said about the last run of the Euro. What you cut and pasted above from what Allan said earlier is the same thing I am saying, didn't know your reading comprehension needed some work. You even bolded the parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Strongly agree! It's no better coming on here and saying - all rain for NC, or of that nature when models clearly don't show that . Than coming in here posting DGEX maps as the truth! Haha yea it's an interesting contrast, I suppose it's easier to let it fly though. People have a much better time forgiving someone who down played an event and ended up being wrong rather than the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Sign me up, gentlemen. I'm on board too. I think I'm sitting in a really nice spot this go round, not as nice as Frosty, but good nonetheless. Here's to ending the effects of the Foothills snow shadow with a nice Miller A track! I think this storm has potential blockbuster written all over it. CR, since when have you begun to drink the same Kool-aid that packbacker was drinking recently? You are beginning to sound like you are at the uttermost point of despair. I don't recognize this side of your Internet personality, man. Oh, and I have to side with Brick on this one against all you guys bombarding him with why this storm will suck. I think there's a lot to be excited about this storm. A good number of you guys are just trying soooo hard to find something bad to say about this storm. To me, you're almost wish-casting in the opposite way from what it normally means. You're so hell-bent on continuing to live in the "snow-life sucks" attitude that you're almost hoping you get left at the altar of a big storm again, just so you can complain about it some more. There's a decent threat on the table, and you don't even want it. That's beyond being level-headed and non-emotional about a storm. I have come to realize that wanting a winter storm doesn't get you one. I am just stating facts, not opinions, I had several positive comments about this storm in the storm thread, I get no credit for those? Only reason I appear negative is that RDU hasn't had a winter storm over 2" since 2010, so what's there to be positive about? If I lived in CAE, ATL or PGV I would be more uplifting on potential events. I said this many times, NC has a chance day 4/5, after that the western part of the state is favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I have come to realize that wanting a winter storm doesn't get you one. I am just stating facts, not opinions, I had several positive comments about this storm in the storm thread, I get no credit for those? Only reason I appear negative is that RDU hasn't had a winter storm over 2" since 2010, so what's there to be positive about? If I lived in CAE, ATL or PGV I would be more uplifting on potential events. I said this many times, NC has a chance day 4/5, after that the western part of the state is favored. Now that's funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 From Dr Ryan Maue For those that saw my AMS talk on ECMWF/GFS skill, more in depth newsletter on topic in EC's Autumn edition: page 15 http://ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/137.pdf Good read and study Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Everyone back away from the 18z GFS... now walk away, slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 When I see people saying "s/w" in the discussion threads, that DOES mean "shortwave", right? Which maps are shortwaves better seen on? 850, 700, 500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Everyone back away from the 18z GFS... now walk away, slowly LOL, I know it squashed the southern energy but the HP seemed to hold a little longer and you didn't have that gigantic low over MN, it was much weaker. Plus it had the day 4/5 snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 When I see people saying "s/w" in the discussion threads, that DOES mean "shortwave", right? Which maps are shortwaves better seen on? 850, 700, 500? 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 LOL, I know it squashed the southern energy but the HP seemed to hold a little longer and you didn't have that gigantic low over MN, it was much weaker. Plus it had the day 4/5 snow potential. Agreed. Not a thread killer. Just another idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Guess we're all jumping on the Euro ship... until it sinks, hopefully the water tight doors hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 We will never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I really try not to be critical of FFC unless really warranted but it does get really old when you see good, long range discussions from surrounding offices and we get: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKS TO BELARGELY ON TRACK. SOME INDICATION FOR LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL INPORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL MONITOR FORCONSISTENCY TO INCLUDE IN FUTURE UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONFOLLOWS...BAKERLONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/.../ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014/ Wow! Thanks, Baker. Since that was your one product to update today (since short-term and aviation was done by someone else) I'd like to personally thank you for sharing your thoughts with us! (sarcasm off). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Per Euro, the 850's are only below 0 for the first 0.1" of precip, after that 850's are above 0 and the surface is below freezing. If you look at those two panels, the 850 temp is only .7 and 1. It's really hard to get freezing rain with 850's that cold unless for some reason temps are warmer below that layer which is pretty doubtful. That's why my assumption is sleet or snow. Probably 50/50 mix until the next hour stamp where the 850 temp goes to 2.2 which would probably signal the beginning of the ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If you look at those two panels, the 850 temp is only .7 and 1. It's really hard to get freezing rain with 850's that cold unless for some reason temps are warmer below that layer which is pretty doubtful. That's why my assumption is sleet or snow. Probably 50/50 mix until the next hour stamp where the 850 temp goes to 2.2 which would probably signal the beginning of the ZR. It would be freezing rain after 850's go positive, crippling ice storm, per Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The optimistic side of me thinks this is just the normal model biases at play leading into a big storm, and a trend to the euro will eventually happen. But realistically I know this is a delicate setup, any minor change in timing could lead to something even bigger or nothing at all. Interesting few days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The optimistic side of me thinks this is just the normal model biases at play leading into a big storm, and a trend to the euro will eventually happen. But realistically I know this is a delicate setup, any minor change in timing could lead to something even bigger or nothing at all. Interesting few days ahead.We'll see. Have heard this many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I really try not to be critical of FFC unless really warranted but it does get really old when you see good, long range discussions from surrounding offices and we get: Wow! Thanks, Baker. Since that was your one product to update today (since short-term and aviation was done by someone else) I'd like to personally thank you for sharing your thoughts with us! (sarcasm off). Not for no reason was that old thread about splitting up FFC resurrected last week. :x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm curious what others think. About when was the last time there was this high of a modeled threat of a major ZR and/or IP for the main CAD region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Everyone back away from the 18z GFS... now walk away, slowly Meh. I've seen the gfs lose storms so many times, only to bring them back that it's almost a guarantee it does this at some point. I mean didn't we just do this not that long ago? The storm that brought atlanta to a stand still, the gfs had it, then lost it completely, and then slowly brought it back. At one point it had virtually zero precip even down along the gulf coast, south ga, etc. Hell even the canadian virtually lost it completely with any precip never making it north of extreme south georgia a few days before the system hit for several runs. The fact is extremely rare for a storm to show up in the long range and the models keep it on every run for 5 days...and especially so at this range. Despite this, I'm not saying it's wrong though. I'm just stating the reality of what these models often do. Guess we're all jumping on the Euro ship... until it sinks, hopefully the water tight doors hold. Look at how much the gfs has waffled in the last 48 hours and compare it to the euro..which really hasn't changed a hell of a lot in terms of the general idea of cad, quite a bit of precip, etc. Gfs on the other hand has gone through every possible solution in terms of sensible weather. Rain, snow, ice, to nothing at all. Gfs really should stop being run 4 times a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS defies the laws of nature sometimes... but it's sorta like that cabin repress valve in Apollo 13, gets our hearts going every time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If...IF the Euro has the right idea, I don't know how upstate SC avoids a nasty ice to snow scenario. QPF would not be a concern. I don't want an ice storm. At all. Nothing anyone says will change that. I do not consider an ice storm in any way shape or form "fun" winter weather. It is dangerous, and without power, it becomes an out right pain in the ass with 3 kids and no heat. I cannot relate to people who love it. I cannot understand people who would hope to experience it. They must have much less to worry about than I do. Or generators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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