BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 You guys forget the GFS insisted the event at the end of January was going to be much bigger than it was. The euro was a consistently drier model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 You guys forget the GFS insisted the event at the end of January was going to be much bigger than it was. The euro was a consistently drier model. At first, the Euro showed a bigger storm than it was (I still have the print outs for reference), even though it tempered the QPF dramatically. But as far as who all was affected, did the GFS not have the best outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What's the Euro going to fold to? The solution the GFS had at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, or 18Z? Because they have all been different every day. If the GFS had been showing something consistently and it was different than the Euro then I could understand some saying it may cave to it but the GFS hasn't had the same thing in back to back runs this entire time. Hard for Euro to cave to the GFS when the GFS doesn't even know what it will show in 6 hours. IMO Whichever one shows the worst possible outcome is the one some folks are going to believe no matter how consistent other models have been. In the end the GFS might be right because it's like throwing a handful of darts at a dartboard, so one of the solutions has to stick. But until you start seeing other models consistently go the other way, I don't know why folks would be so negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Man waiting for the Euro to come out today is like waiting for your dad to come out of the principal's office after having to pick you up early from school for getting asked to leave class for something that wasn't really your fault. It might turn out ok, but you still have this feeling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 At first, the Euro showed a bigger storm than it was (I still have the print outs for reference), even though it tempered the QPF dramatically. But as far as who all was affected, did the GFS not have the best outcome? For mby using a blend of the Euro/NAM worked well once again. At least for me this winter, this has been the way to go when trying to decipher sensible weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Whichever one shows the worst possible outcome is the one some folks are going to believe no matter how consistent other models have been. How'd the meeting go? It was a good day to be in one, I'll tell you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If we can't get snow out of that perfect track, we stink! Easy....we suck! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 How'd the meeting go? It was a good day to be in one, I'll tell you that. Why? Because one run of the GFS wasn't as good? The last Euro was still great. The GFS might be starting to go all over the place now like it does sometimes. No use in thinking all is lost until the other models start to consistently lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Why? Because one run of the GFS wasn't as good? The last Euro was still great. The GFS might be starting to go all over the place now like it does sometimes. No use in thinking all is lost until the other models start to consistently lose it. You're so combative lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Why? Because one run of the GFS wasn't as good? The last Euro was still great. The GFS might be starting to go all over the place now like it does sometimes. No use in thinking all is lost until the other models start to consistently lose it. and if they do, you'll cling to the one that still shows a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 and if they do, you'll cling to the one that still shows a storm. No, I'd look at all of them for the trend and consider the consistency of them all. People are so doom and gloom because of one or two runs of the GFS instead of looking at the overall consistency of the model runs and waiting to see what the other model runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Heck, I'd take the overrunning that the Canadien is showing for Tuesday even if Wednesday doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 No, I'd look at all of them see what others are saying about them and look for the trend and consider the consistency of them all. People are so doom and gloom because of one or two runs of the GFS instead of looking at the overall consistency of the model runs and waiting to see what the other model runs do. FIFY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 if i can't get snow then i would like to be in a good warm sector with a chase of severe weather and neither seem likely so this setup sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I honestly wouldn't mind taking the Canadian verbatim. Two major snowstorms in three days isn't bad. Sure, the "main event" has some mixing issues, but it's likely all frozen and that overrunning event on day 4 is actually a pretty big hit (3-5" for much of NC). It will change, though. Time for the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 FIFY! You know what I mean. It's like you do a research paper, and you have all this evidence that is consistent with one thing and it looks pretty good, and then you have this one source of evidence that is all over the place, but is still more consistently good than bad. So why would you automatically go with the inconsistent bad evidence just because it's bad and base your conclusion on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 FIFY!this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I should have been Ron Burgandy instead of Brick Tamland. I'm the guy that reports on the storms, not the weather man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If you want to check out some ridiculousness, check out the NAVGEM. It shows about a 48-hour event with lows all over the place. It's pretty comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I should have been Ron Burgandy instead of Brick Tamland. I'm the guy that reports on the storms, not the weather man. You should have been Al Roker then. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I should have been Ron Burgandy instead of Brick Tamland. I'm the guy that reports on the storms, not the weather man. But, are you a jazz flute master? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I have some training today from 10:30 to 12:30. Why they schedule this during lunch time is beyond me. But it's also during the next GFS run. They told us to turn off our phones for the training. Yeah, right! I need to follow the GFS play-by-play! lol You couldn't read it if the maps were in Braille. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If you want to check out some ridiculousness, check out the NAVGEM. It shows about a 48-hour event with lows all over the place. It's pretty comical. Well I'm weenie enough to ask for specifics on any model. How were the temperatures and our wild card GL low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro meltdown 3..2..1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro meltdown 3..2..1... Might be a false alarm. Larry scared me there for a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well I'm weenie enough to ask for specifics on any model. How were the temperatures and our wild card GL low? I'm not sure. I was just looking at Tropical Tidbits and they don't have temperatures available there. At one point, it had three lows over the SE. LOL: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014020712/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_25.png Euro meltdown 3..2..1... I don't think that will be necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 For mby using a blend of the Euro/NAM worked well once again. At least for me this winter, this has been the way to go when trying to decipher sensible weather That's a good point about the NAM. I generally forget about it because the NAM and myself are estranged after years of abuse. I will intentionally skip the NAM and just wait for the RAP most of the time. Maybe I hope the NAM sees me having a blast with the RAP and goes home quietly wishing it hadn't screwed up our relationship while it eats a quart of Cherry Garcia. On the topic of Lord ECMFW-mort, well... I would love for the Euro to be right in these snow solutions. I really would. I have a folder housing crazy snow solution maps from the Euro dating back to January 2011 - like a serial stalker. Most - like 8 out of 10 (generally speaking) - were either wrong, really wrong or "meh". Part of me thinks it earned the "king" title because it nailed a storm at Christmas back in 2010. Which happened in a split flow if I'm not mistaken. My whole point was that it's super easy to say that the Euro is king, and all hail the euro - and likewise for the GFS apologists. But no one can ever give me a list of actual cases or examples apart from the "Sandy" score or the "Polar Vortex" win. Not enough to pledge allegiance to it anyway. They'll throw up a verification score card, as if this were a round of golf. What they don't show is specific instances, or apples to apples (GFS runs four times a day which is ridiculous in itself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If you look at verification scores, the Euro is the best. That's really not debatable. I suppose you can debate how it handles east coast cyclogenesis, though, but it is the best performing model overall in both hemispheres and has been for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Whichever one shows the worst possible outcome is the one some folks are going to believe no matter how consistent other models have been. In the end the GFS might be right because it's like throwing a handful of darts at a dartboard, so one of the solutions has to stick. But until you start seeing other models consistently go the other way, I don't know why folks would be so negative. You're a living dissertation for a Doctorate in Psychology. Today you're farting rainbows, tomorrow you'll be ready to slash your wrists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If you look at verification scores, the Euro is the best. That's really not debatable. I suppose you can debate how it handles east coast cyclogenesis, though, but it is the best performing model overall in both hemispheres and has been for years. All things being equal? And if that's genuinely the case - and I'm willing to believe it is - why is it so difficult for people to give examples? ***EDIT*** What does this statement in your signature mean: "The Europeans just are not what they used to be. The whole euro zone is a mess. They must have started getting funding from Greece to run the Euro". There are obviously differing perspectives - hell, just keep it on a Met level, between the people who know better than you or me, and there's a ton of disagreement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.