superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's possible the storm won't work out, but using the 84-hour NAM to try to prove that probably isn't wise. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Caution I think is realistic. Lot's of good signs, but man, having a winter stormed modeled 8 days out all the way to the event seems like a reach. I bet we get something, but not as robust as the EURO shows right now. The real monster storms usually are picked up early. We'll see. I've seen storms modelled way out come to fruition before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's possible the storm won't work out, but using the 84-hour NAM to try to prove that probably isn't wise. IMO. Hey James, do you have the EURO ensemble information from last night for our area? Also, Robert posted a video on youtube for anyone who's interested: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5BsbCNvGT4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Hey James, do you have the EURO ensemble information from last night for our area? Also, Robert posted a video on youtube for anyone who's interested: I'll look at the Euro Ensemble data when I get home in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well I've been pulled into a meeting right at 12z gfs time. Keep updates coming so I can check them on phone... LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Could some one be kind and give some insight on eastern nc for this event... I respect all of you and I'm not trying to be a pain its just a little hard sometimes trying to figure out what's going on here when so much is going on... thanks for all the time and effort everyone gives to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 well things are looking good for next week right now but boy with the cold air being marginal, where is all that cold air when you need it. would be nice not to have to worry about the cold also although I do think after reading everything most of wnc will be mostly snow and hopefully other areas as well. hoping this will trend colder in the coming days so folks will have less ice and more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well I've been pulled into a meeting right at 12z gfs time. Keep updates coming so I can check them on phone... LOL. You in Brick's meeting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 You in Brick's meeting? LOL... Nope. It is interesting though. We just got this new weather software at work that is very cool. Nice radar features and tells us road temps from our sensors in the road. All traffic cameras across the US are also displayed. Nice little program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 LOL... Nope. It is interesting though. We just got this new weather software at work that is very cool. Nice radar features and tells us road temps from our sensors in the road. All traffic cameras across the US are also displayed. Nice little program. That sounds cool. We just got this new little program at our work that blocks more sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Massive fail inbound on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What's up with the graph for the mountains? It shows mainly rain in AVL. Is it really that much warmer? Read the Bolded big red header @ the top of the output page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Massive fail inbound on the GFS. Ok, here's my new song: "THE FAILBOAT, SOON WILL BE MAKING ANOTHER RUN." "THE FAILBOAT, NOTHING EXCITING AND NEW." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 We put a man on the moon but cant have a better model than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Seems like the GFS looked good but now it doesn't. Trend is now bad. #BB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ok, here's my new song: "THE FAILBOAT, SOON WILL BE MAKING ANOTHER RUN." "THE FAILBOAT, NOTHING EXCITING AND NEW." Haha! Going old school...nice. Here's one for you: "Believe it or not, I'm warming the air There is no snow anymore to see ee ee All you've got now is a wing and a prayer Ha ha hee hee, should never have listend to me." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Massive fail inbound on the GFS. LOL, here comes the GFS sucks it's the worst model in the world….wait until the Euro folds, nothing but crickets will be heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 LOL, here comes the GFS sucks it's the worst model in the world….wait until the Euro folds, nothing but crickets will be heard. What's the Euro going to fold to? The solution the GFS had at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, or 18Z? Because they have all been different every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's possible the storm won't work out, but using the 84-hour NAM to try to prove that probably isn't wise. IMO. Might not be but its clear cut night and day difference. But you know something is fishy when it looks like fish and smells like fish. Not only the 84 hr 12 run but 6z had it as well. It seems some models keep holding back to make one big storm. When we know from expierence this year it hasn't happen and will likely not happen for the SE. No matter how people try to explain it the long term pattern since Nov hasn't changed the flow is just too progressive without any blocking for a big snow/ice event. The real monster storms usually are picked up early. We'll see. I've seen storms modelled way out come to fruition before. True but this isn't the year. Nickel and dime is the theme of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Haha! Going old school...nice. Here's one for you: "Believe it or not, I'm warming the air There is no snow anymore to see ee ee All you've got now is a wing and a prayer Ha ha hee hee, should never have listend to me." Awesome! One of my favorite songs from the 80's. Remember when theme songs to the shows were so good. Here's a couple for you (I'm sure we could put some weather lyrics to them): "You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have THE FACTS OF LIFE, THE FACTS OF LIFE." "Show me that smile again. Don't waste another minute on your crying." (Growing Pains) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 LOL, here comes the GFS sucks it's the worst model in the world….wait until the Euro folds, nothing but crickets will be heard. I think it throws is a bone...but it's gone by Sunday. I mean the GFS sucks, don't get me wrong. It could very well be wrong. But the fast flow doesn't seem conducive to locking in HP for a long time, even though the models keep showing it. And with the flow looking more zonal now, it seems phasing is a long shot. Anyway, the model could very well be wrong, but it's solution isn't unreasonable at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Awesome! One of my favorite songs from the 80's. Remember when theme songs to the shows were so good. Here's a couple for you (I'm sure we could put some weather lyrics to them): "You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have THE FACTS OF LIFE, THE FACTS OF LIFE." "Show me that smile again. Don't waste another minute on your crying." (Growing Pains) Yeah, back in the say, theme songs were awesome...The 80s and early 90s were great for theme songs...even the late 70s. Now, it's just, I don't even know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS = train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What's the Euro going to fold to? The solution the GFS had at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, or 18Z? Because they have all been different every day. I don't really pay attention to the 6z/18z model runs so to the 0z/12z runs which is a non-event here, HP scoots out quicker, weaker SLP without as much precip that tracks much faster. I hope I am wrong, but the 12z UK doesn't look good either at day 5, HP moving out much faster that 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think it throws is a bone...but it's gone by Sunday. I mean the GFS sucks, don't get me wrong. It could very well be wrong. But the fast flow doesn't seem conducive to locking in HP for a long time, even though the models keep showing it. And with the flow looking more zonal now, it seems phasing is a long shot. Anyway, the model could very well be wrong, but it's solution isn't unreasonable at all. Maybe you should have a picture of a FAILBOAT, or SYSTEM FAILURE next to your yellow alert warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 LOL, here comes the GFS sucks it's the worst model in the world….wait until the Euro folds, nothing but crickets will be heard.GFS sucks! I'm going with DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Maybe you should have a picture of a FAILBOAT, or SYSTEM FAILURE next to your yellow alert warning? I might have to add one soon. On another note.... GFS may be falling into its classic bias of overplaying the northern stream. Here, it quickly phases in with the trailing southern wave behind our storm and blows up a big low over the lakes, and fizzles out our southern short wave. The 0z Euro meanwhile keeps the pieces of energy apart where by 0z Feb 13, it has several weak low pressure centers associated with each separate piece of energy moving through... and maintains our southern s/w with CAD in place. As long as our system continues to hold its own, the won't be a deep Great Lakes low to contend with. EDIT: Looks like GSP agrees as well. Why is Wow yelling at us in the storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I might have to add one soon. On another note.... Why is Wow yelling at us in the storm thread? Probably because some keep hugging a model that has been all over creation with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Will the Euro blink? place your bets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Will the Euro blink? place your bets Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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