packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Watch Matthew East's video. He breaks down the GFS, Euro and Canadian runs from last night. Watch Matthew East's video. He breaks down the GFS, Euro and Canadian runs from last night. Did he bring up how the Euro missed the phase and the 0z GFS was almost a whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 NW trend. A.] It's always there. B.] If it IS as organized and tilts around GA as "king" Euro depicts, would it not also begin to pivot N anyway? Yeah, that's my feeling too. Also.....Is this storm ever going to move inside of 6-7 days? It seems like it's been stuck at the 144-168 hour mark for 3 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Isn't Wednesday 5 days from now? RAH still talking about a shot of snow Tuesday, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Isn't Wednesday 5 days from now? RAH still talking about a shot of snow Tuesday, too. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I have some training today from 10:30 to 12:30. Why they schedule this during lunch time is beyond me. But it's also during the next GFS run. They told us to turn off our phones for the training. Yeah, right! I need to follow the GFS play-by-play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tblevins Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Do you mind telling me where you pulled this from? Thanks! There's also another site that gives a model comparison of the bufkit data: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu Just replace the site= with the station you want data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, to say the euro bothers me a bit would be an understatement. EURO would hammer us here in mid ga with nearly 1" QPF of ZR. Now, is this ultimately going to right, IDK, but that wedge looks pretty dang strong. 850's are even pretty cold as well, which tells me the depth of the cold will be more than suffice. This IS in the euro's wheelhouse right now. I would suspect, if the euro keeps this general solution, its all systems go and the GFS will eventually come back around in a day or 2. This is one time that I hope we're too far south for any freezing precip. 33 degrees and rain would normally leave me disappointed...not this time! 1" of ZR would be a potential disaster for this area. I've been in middle GA since 1998 and I can only recall a minor icing event back in the mid-2000's. It will be interesting to see the trends as we draw closer to the event. I'm rooting for a cold rain for me and for Tony to get a half-foot of sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Did he bring up how the Euro missed the phase and the 0z GFS was almost a whiff? I don't remember to be honest. My impression is that he thinks the GFS has been waffling a bit more than the other models due and shouldn't be entirely trusted. He cuts the video right as the 6z gfs comes out so he shows the differences between it and the 0z. It's a good video presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't remember to be honest. My impression is that he thinks the GFS has been waffling a bit more than the other models due and shouldn't be entirely trusted. He cuts the video right as the 6z gfs comes out so he shows the differences between it and the 0z. It's a good video presentation. Yep...all hail the EURO. Like a boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Has the DGEX ever.....I mean EVER been correct with a winter storm? I'm serious, dont know the answer. But one would assume that if the model never validates, lets says with a success rate of less than 50%, then why is it even funded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 well this is just lovely... What's up with the graph for the mountains? It shows mainly rain in AVL. Is it really that much warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah, I can do without all this ZR down here in SC. Not good stuff at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I have some training today from 10:30 to 12:30. Why they schedule this during lunch time is beyond me. But it's also during the next GFS run. They told us to turn off our phones for the training. Yeah, right! I need to follow the GFS play-by-play! Is it "how to read a weather model" training? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Is it "how to read a weather model" training? That would be more interesting. No, it's "I already know how to do this but we have to have this pointless training every year" training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Bigger risk: NW trend or storm vanish? I think Matthew East stated it well in his video, the biggest risk is the storm doesn't ramp up and it just peters out. Flat, fast flow, instead of slowing down and making a nice storm. The lack of any ridging in the west does worry me. You'd think the storm would just scoot by to our south. On the other hand, I like hearing Robert say that the baffin ridge teleconnects to a SE Low many times....so there's that. I won't buy into this thing until tomorrow and the EURO, GEFS, and ENS are still on board. But I'm a weenie and seeing the models right now sure does look good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That would be more interesting. No, it's "I already know how to do this but we have to have this pointless training every year" training. Oh ok...I've been to that training class before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think Matthew East stated it well in his video, the biggest risk is the storm doesn't ramp up and it just peters out. Flat, fast flow, instead of slowing down and making a nice storm. The lack of any ridging in the west does worry me. You'd think the storm would just scoot by to our south. On the other hand, I like hearing Robert say that the baffin ridge teleconnects to a SE Low many times....so there's that. I won't buy into this thing until tomorrow and the EURO, GEFS, and ENS are still on board. But I'm a weenie and seeing the models right now sure does look good... Well, the last one kinda peetered out, so that's a legit concern. I'll be onboard Monday, if it's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, the last one kinda peetered out, so that's a legit concern. I'll be onboard Monday, if it's still there. Yep, this weekends fail is certainly in the back of my mind. However there seems like so much more agreement in the modeling for an even longer time. Plus the NWS depts are picking it up and putting it in their forecasts. Off topic, I wonder why there's the pepsi logo on the drinking emoticon. I would prefer coke.....or Sam Adams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Is it "how to read a weather model" training? He needs to take that training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yep, this weekends fail is certainly in the back of my mind. However there seems like so much more agreement in the modeling for an even longer time. Plus the NWS depts are picking it up and putting it in their forecasts. Off topic, I wonder why there's the pepsi logo on the drinking emoticon. I would prefer coke.....or Sam Adams. Because pepsi is better than coke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 As far as Euro vs GFS, they both have problems. The Euro is more consistent from run to run. It may be wrong with fantasy storms in the long range, but the run to run is still more consistent. The GFS might not show the fantasy storms as much in the long range, but it sometimes has wild swings from run to run (maybe because it runs 4 times a day instead of 2), and it is not as consistent.How can you say this when you have never looked at the model ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 How can you say this when you have never looked at the model ever? Because I can read and comprehend things based on the discussion of the model runs in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 He needs to take that training. You're so funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 How can you say this when you have never looked at the model ever? AmWx ENS Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Because pepsi is better than coke +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm more like the news reporter that talks about the weather when it is the top story than the actual met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Because pepsi is better than coke Never!! Ok, maybe. It's definitely sweeter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I see the usual doubters have started up about next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I see the usual doubters have started up about next week.Haters gonna hate, playa! Why we be snow/ sleet ballin, next Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I see the usual doubters have started up about next week. Caution I think is realistic. Lot's of good signs, but man, having a winter stormed modeled 8 days out all the way to the event seems like a reach. I bet we get something, but not as robust as the EURO shows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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