Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

February Banter


POWERSTROKE

Recommended Posts

Being stuck in a meeting during a good Euro run is the worst.

Sent from my HTC One

I was driving home from just north of Elgin when someone told me not to look at the Euro  :whistle: 

 

 

 

I didn't listen  :(  

 

Awesome photos!  Thanks for sharing.  Somebody had already posted the video, which I watched.  That is amazing amounts of ice.  Who knows?  Perhaps after next week, some people might confuse the pictures with NGA and SC...

:angry:   :(  :angry:  :(  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:hug:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The ENS mean does show a good amount of front end frzn for NC but that low over the lakes does come in and shuts off the cold air supply and actually phases with the SLP that develops off the NC coast, it might not matter but if it's times just like that, but if that low over the lakes moves in sooner this will be a cold rain for most, or starts as ice, warms up quickly and than rain.  

 

I am very excited about the last 10 days of Feb, it looks like a good chance to turn warmer based on the latest data.  An early spring would be better than a foot of snow right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ENS mean does show a good amount of front end frzn for NC but that low over the lakes does come in and shuts off the cold air supply and actually phases with the SLP that develops off the NC coast, it might not matter but if it's times just like that, but if that low over the lakes moves in sooner this will be a cold rain for most, or starts as ice, warms up quickly and than rain.  

 

I am very excited about the last 10 days of Feb, it looks like a good chance to turn warmer based on the latest data.  An early spring would be better than a foot of snow right now.

 

 

Come on Brick, your not falling for another one of these again.

 

I am so shocked you're pessimistic about this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am so shocked you're pessimistic about this.

 

Me?  I am Mr. Optimistic......I am very optimistic it isn't going to snow/ice next week, well nothing of consequence.  You can already see the GFS trying to dampen the ridging in the west, similar to what it did for this weekends lost storm, I would expect this trend to continue over the next few days.    I would post this in the storm thread but don't want to dampen the spirit over.  Below is the 0z GFS from Wed v/s today's 12z GFS, you can see west coast ridging getting beaten down...

 

gfs_z500a_nhem_49.png

 

Wed 0z run, much more amplified....

 

gfs_z500a_nhem_61.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As much as I love a good winter storm, living in north Georgia, idk If I can hope this verifies. With the qpf this storm is being modeled to have, and temps around or below freezing it would be an awful situation. For Gods sake we have a topic about snow apocalypse in Atlanta and stories of people being stranded. But I do love a winter storm! By the way guys thanks for all the pbp and constant updates! Carry on! :)

 

My guess is that the next hint of winter weather in ATL...everyone will take it serious and be prepared. Probably overkill preparedness. And that's not a bad thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh god...I was hoping this would trend snow for Atlanta, but based on what people are posting, I'm becoming more and more worried about a major icestorm here. I do not want a loss of power for days. I just can't do that. You can't enjoy anything when you're stuck in your house with no heat for days. That's not fun.

 

 

Atlanta just cannot afford an ice storm at this point. Just can't. I'm praying it trends NW and warmer for us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Me?  I am Mr. Optimistic......I am very optimistic it isn't going to snow/ice next week, well nothing of consequence.  You can already see the GFS trying to dampen the ridging in the west, similar to what it did for this weekends lost storm, I would expect this trend to continue over the next few days.    I would post this in the storm thread but don't want to dampen the spirit over.  Below is the 0z GFS from Wed v/s today's 12z GFS, you can see west coast ridging getting beaten down...

 

 

 

You should definitely post in the storm thread.  You have valid points.  You are not just being disgruntled like other posters. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think there's ALOT to like with this storm.  Way better than the late January storm for the following reasons:

 

1.  Southern stream.  No northern stream please dig, dig, dig bologna. 

2.  Some blocking is present in the -NAO regions.  I think Baffin Island blocking is what robert referenced it as. 

3.  High Pressure to the north that doesn't scoot too quick.  It may scoot, but not so fast.  

4.  50/50 low keeping HP and confluence coming south. 

5.  Big precip gulf low, potentially Miller A

6.  CAD

7.  Tons of consecutive runs of both the GFS and EURO showing a big winter storm. 

8.  Under a week away - 6 days. 

 

So much better than the late January storm IMO.  Will it work out??  No clue.  I'll wait until this weekend before I jump all in.   I'm skeptical because of the whiff the models pulled on us for this weekend but today's runs really have to make you feel good if you live in CLT. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You should definitely post in the storm thread.  You have valid points.  You are not just being disgruntled like other posters. 

 

Thanks!   I don't  know for sure the setup isn't going to remain as amplified, to be honest I haven't even really looked at the what the Euro is doing over the past couple of days, but we can clearly see the GFS going the wrong way.  There is model support from all the globals on this so that has to count, but we haven't had a storm trend our way in a long time, and that has to count for something too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course it might change. But if you look at the consistency of the model runs right now, there is much more of a chance that this will happen than not at this time.

 

I completely disagree, we have had a lot of day 6-7 storms over the past 3 years that for whatever reason didn't work out for us, just last week we had every major model (Global and Regional) show us getting 4-6" of snow, maybe more, and what happened, it fell apart the day of the storm.  Were running real cold right now, not the good kid of cold either, the shooting slump type cold, not sure how we get out of it, if we ever do.  On the other hand you have places like ATL, CAE, PGV and the NE that are running really hot, I would expect those places to keep cashing in.  I will hand it to you, for all the lack of snow we have had the past 10 years you remain positive, good for you, I very well may be wrong, hopefully I am.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course it might change. But if you look at the consistency of the model runs right now, there is much more of a chance that this will happen than not at this time.

Agree somewhat but it all comes down to the 24 hours before the storm. All the models were showing a significant ice storm here and Savannah last week except the GFS which had 33 and rain. The Euro had a couple of inches of snow here and HRRR had 8 inches. So whoever said the HRRR has been good lately is BS.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agree, but it all comes down to the 24 hours before the storm. All the models were showing a significant ice storm here and Savannah last week except the GFS which had 33 and rain. The Euro had a couple of inches of snow here and HRRR had 8 inches. So whoever said the HRRR has been good lately is BS.

Really, the HRRR busted that bad.  Very interesting, the RAP stunk up here last week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I completely disagree, we have had a lot of day 6-7 storms over the past 3 years that for whatever reason didn't work out for us, just last week we had every major model (Global and Regional) show us getting 4-6" of snow, maybe more, and what happened, it fell apart the day of the storm.  Were running real cold right now, not the good kid of cold either, the shooting slump type cold, not sure how we get out of it, if we ever do.  On the other hand you have places like ATL, CAE, PGV and the NE that are running really hot, I would expect those places to keep cashing in.  I will hand it to you, for all the lack of snow we have had the past 10 years you remain positive, good for you, I very well may be wrong, hopefully I am.

 

 

Every system is different. Just because of what happened the last three years or even last week didn't work out doesn't mean this one won't. The evidence we have right now with the model consistentcy is pointing to this more than likely happening than not. That might change. But that is not the case right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every system is different. Just because of what happened the last three years or even last week didn't work out doesn't mean this one won't. The evidence we have right now with the model consistentcy is pointing to this more than likely happening than not. That might change. But that is not the case right now.

 

Good luck to you.  I will be rooting for you to be right and history to be wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I doubt very seriously that this will be snow for anyone in GA except maybe in the far NE to start. If it is as cold as the models are suggesting, then the one thing that could save us from a crippling ice event is some sleet. Back in the 80s (forget the year) there was a system that everyone thought would be devastating ice but we ended up with 3-5" of sleet.

 

 

I just don't want ice. if we can avoid Ice, I'd be fine. I'm hoping the NW trend come through for the ATL area since we have no chance for snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ENS mean does show a good amount of front end frzn for NC but that low over the lakes does come in and shuts off the cold air supply and actually phases with the SLP that develops off the NC coast, it might not matter but if it's times just like that, but if that low over the lakes moves in sooner this will be a cold rain for most, or starts as ice, warms up quickly and than rain.

I am very excited about the last 10 days of Feb, it looks like a good chance to turn warmer based on the latest data. An early spring would be better than a foot of snow right now.

I think you make a valid point. But this potential storm has much more support from the models than the weekend wave had. We'll see what happens.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...