Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 As you can see I've already mentioned that after looking at soundings it was more zr than I thought...But it takes a little time to get soundings in and if you would take a look at the model every once in a while you would be able to tell how close it was to just plain rain. I bet it will be close. Most of the time it is with these things here. But I was confused as to why you said it looked like mostly rain when RaleighWx had said right before that it showed signifigant sleet/freezing rain. I thought you were just trying to be pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What's coming in tonight is already stronger than what was modeled. Let's see how that holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 False. You said you didn't think it would trend away from a big storm. But I'm with you...I hope HOPE we get a big snowstorm too. Unfortunately snowstorms don't happen because Cold Rain hopes they will or because the Dgex clown map shows one or because the 7 day GFS is on board. Based on the consistency of the models right now showing ice for here, right now I don't think this will trend to more rain and less of a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't see why anyone wants to argue about something next week. Cause it's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Based on the consistency of the models right now showing ice for here, right now I don't think this will trend to more rain and less of a winter storm. Well, they've been pretty consistent so far, so we've got that going for us, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't see why anyone wants to argue about something next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What's coming in tonight is already stronger than what was modeled. Let's see how that holds together. I've been watching that radar all morning. Now I know a lot more is in play here than my overnight forecast temp of 31 and this batch of precipitation but...what gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Models seem to be missing the northern extent of the precip shield. Good 'ol overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What's coming in tonight is already stronger than what was modeled. Let's see how that holds together. Exactly and pay attention to tomorrow night instead of something thats always stuck at 150 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Based on the consistency of the models right now showing ice for here, right now I don't think this will trend to more rain and less of a winter storm.which models are you, not other people, basing this on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 which models are you, not other people, basing this on? I am discussing what others have consistently said about the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I am discussing what others have consistently said about the model runs. You are the AmericanWx Posters Ensemble Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You are the AmericanWx Posters Ensemble Mean. Really, I am just commenting and keeping it in banter. It's like some people want to be the weather forum police and make everyone an expert on how to read the models and forecasting before they can comment on what is going on with the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Models seem to be missing the northern extent of the precip shield. Good 'ol overrunning. Sort of the same thing that happened with the last event. I suspect there will be a flizzard in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Really, I am just commenting and keeping it in banter. It's like some people want to be the weather forum police and make everyone an expert on how to read the models and forecasting before they can comment on what is going on with the weather. I wasn't trying to come across as being the forum police and apologize if that's the way it seemed. What got me going was you questioning me on the rain issue when you haven't even looked at the model. We're all good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Exactly and pay attention to tomorrow night instead of something thats always stuck at 150 hours out. I kinda does seem like this thing can't get any closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It kinda does seem like this thing can't get any closer. Its been relatively unchanged from 24 hours ago till now. I mean really its so foolish to keep talking about something thats been stuck in the day 6-7 timeframe for what about 36 hours or so. While there is 2 snow chances for the SE tonight and tomorrow night while folks want to be silly turn a blind eye... oh my the gfs at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Its been relatively unchanged from 24 hours ago till now. I mean really its so foolish to keep talking about something thats been stuck in the day 6-7 timeframe for what about 36 hours or so. While there is 2 snow chances for the SE tonight and tomorrow night while folks want to be silly turn a blind eye... oh my the gfs at 150. I don't so much mind discussing the possibility for next week, but I agree that it's unwise to not pay any attention to the near term. I'd like to see the Saturday thing trend colder, but we're getting a little close for huge swings in the thermal profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.ACUS11 KWNS 061810SWOMCDSPC MCD 061809ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062215-MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1209 PM CST THU FEB 06 2014AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS...SERN LA...SWRN ALCONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATIONVALID 061809Z - 062215ZSUMMARY...A SHIELD OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVEEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS APPROACHINGTHE LOWER MS VALLEY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS. PRECEDING DCVA ISMODESTLY ENHANCING MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ABOVE A SFC-BASED COLDDOME. IR AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY IMPLY A RECENT UPTICK IN SHALLOWCONVECTION OVER SRN LA AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ATTENDANTTO THE IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD OVER SERNLA...FAR SERN MS...AND SWRN AL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.WITH THE 12Z LIX RAOB WET-BULB PROFILE INDICATING DEEP SUB-FREEZINGAIR BENEATH A SHALLOW WARM LAYER BETWEEN H85 AND H7...SLEET ANDPERHAPS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCEDPRECIPITATION...AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR PATTERSON TOWARD BATONROUGE AND THEN EWD TOWARD NEW ORLEANS AND PERHAPS GULFPORT DURINGTHE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEAK SFC COLD ADVECTION AND SUB-CLOUDEVAPORATION WILL REINFORCE THE COLD DOME...WITH ICE PRECIP PHASESBEING MANIFESTED AT THE SFC. LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATESOF 0.03-0.05 INCH/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY --SNOWFALL RATES AOB 0.4 INCH/HOUR -- THOUGH SUCH RATES WILL BE BRIEFOWING TO THE FAST MOTION OF THE IMPULSE.FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MS INCLUDING AREAS SOUTH OFJACKSON TOWARD MCCOMB EWD TO THE PINE BELT REGION...HINTS OFCYCLONIC ARCHING OF THE BROADER PRECIP SHIELD INTO THIS REGIONSUGGEST DEFORMATION-ZONE-RELATED ENHANCED ASCENT. THIS IS ALSO WHEREDEEPER COLD AIR EXISTS PER THE 12Z JAN RAOB. SNOW WILL BE MORELIKELY IN THESE AREAS...AND HEAVY SNOW HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTEDUPSTREAM IN ALEXANDRIA LA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILLREMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE IMPULSE QUICKLY TRACKS ACROSS THEREGION...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.3-0.6 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE OVERAN HOUR OR TWO OF DURATION.THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE EWD INTO SWRN ALIN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE IMPULSE AFTER 1930-2000Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Brick, the Euro says we live to fight another day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Brick, the Euro says we live to fight another day! I see that. Even has a little something for west of 85 on Monday before the big one Tuesday night. I think this is a legit threat. We're inside 5 days now and the models are staying consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really shouldn't have started the storm thread... My first one will probably be the Ice storms to end all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 How is north Alabama looking in all of this? Unfortunately, still in Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Sounds like the Euro trended colder. Can we get less ice and more snow in central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Sounds like the Euro was good, if you want a paralyzing winter storm for most on here!!! Where can I sign up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thanks. I don't like it either. Can someone else answer my question? You talking about tonight or next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Sounds like the Euro was good, if you want a paralyzing winter storm for most on here!!! Where can I sign up? Yes It was good... I'm taking the snow and sending you the crippling ice storm. Get that generator running! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thanks. I don't like it either. Can someone else answer my question?Unfortunately at this time we are receiving an extremely high volume of weenieism due to a great run of the Euro. We will not be able to respond to imby posts at this time. Try again later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You talking about tonight or next week? Next week. Or any other chance of winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Unfortunately at this time we are receiving an extremely high volume of weenieism due to a great run of the Euro. We will not be able to respond to imby posts at this time. Try again later. *Blows weenie whistle* 2 points for you (that's good) heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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