Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Alexandria , LA - ftw. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You know it must be looking bad if I'm the only one commenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah , looked to be headed for a crash and burn, but turned into miracle on the Hudson! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah , looked to be headed for a crash and burn, but turned into miracle on the Hudson!It must be locked in. Nothing can stop this winter storm now! It would be nice if the DGEX just got it right for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS still looks like mostly ice for NC. Need to get that to trend colder for snow, but burger said it was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS still looks like mostly ice for NC. Need to get that to trend colder for snow, but burger said it was close. It's going to waffle a lot. I wouldn't worry too much about it until we get closer. (If it's still showing a storm then...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's going to waffle a lot. I wouldn't worry too much about it until we get closer. (If it's still showing a storm then...). The big thing is it has been staying consistent with some kind of winter storm here. Lookout says it is a huge winter storm for NC. I wonder exactly what portions of NC he means, and who sees what. Snow, ice, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I've never been a fan of CAD situations. They seem to erode pretty quickly and you get mostly rain. Definitely will keep an eye on this but I think the best case scenario for CLT will be a sleet storm with rain on the back end. I don't know any mechanism to crash the 850s in this circumstance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Taken literally some light snow and then significant sleet/freezing rain before changing to rain for RDU on this run. This is a complicated setup for sure. I really don't like the sound of that signifigant sleet/freezing rain. This thing needs to trend colder for more snow and less ice. I don't like plain rain, but I might take that over a lot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I've never been a fan of CAD situations. They seem to erode pretty quickly and you get mostly rain. Definitely will keep an eye on this but I think the best case scenario for CLT will be a sleet storm with rain on the back end. I don't know any mechanism to crash the 850s in this circumstance. Better HP for longer. Don't know how long you've been in CLT but CAD storms can be great and we used to get them a lot. Your typical winter storm would be snow to sleet to ZR to create a nice crunchy snow. Perfect for street sledding. It seems just this last decade CAD storms always go ZR to rain. Feb. 2011 was a good one that had about 3 inches of snow, 1/2 inch or so of sleet and the some light ZR at the very end. Fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really don't like the sound of that signifigant sleet/freezing rain. This thing needs to trend colder for more snow and less ice. I don't like plain rain, but I might take that over a lot of ice. You're going to get your wish, only opposite. It'll trend less ice and more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You're going to get your wish, only opposite. It'll trend less ice and more rain. I don't think so. I think this could end up a big snow and ice mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You're going to get your wish, only opposite. It'll trend less ice and more rain. Agree...On the 12z gfs everything after around hr 150 is rain and that's when the bulk of the precip starts. Everything before then is light. It could change but we need the precip earlier or the hp to hold longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't think so. I think this could end up a big snow and ice mess. And that is based on what? Are you seeing something on the models that's making you think this? Not saying it can't happen, I'm just curious what you're seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Agree...On the 12z gfs everything after around hr 150 is rain and that's when the bulk of the precip starts. Everything before then is light. It could change but we need the precip earlier or the hp to hold longer. Yeah, I'd like to see confluence hold longer, but that has not been the trend this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Agree...On the 12z gfs everything after around hr 150 is rain and that's when the bulk of the precip starts. Everything before then is light. It could change but we need the precip earlier or the hp to hold longer. So you just totally skip over the part where RaleighWx said it had signifigant sleet/freezing rain for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't think so. I think this could end up a big snow and ice mess. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So you just totally skip over the part where RaleighWx said it had signifigant sleet/freezing rain for RDU? After seeing some soundings it is a lot more zr than I thought but I still think we need the hp to hold longer or it will turn into a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Better HP for longer. Don't know how long you've been in CLT but CAD storms can be great and we used to get them a lot. Your typical winter storm would be snow to sleet to ZR to create a nice crunchy snow. Perfect for street sledding. It seems just this last decade CAD storms always go ZR to rain. Feb. 2011 was a good one that had about 3 inches of snow, 1/2 inch or so of sleet and the some light ZR at the very end. Fun storm. Would the HP crash 850s or just keep surface temps colder? Yeah CAD's have definitely benefited us in the past, but the best storms I remember (30 years worth since a kid) was the storm pulled in the cold air. Closing off or going negative tilt, etc there was some mechanism to bring it down south once the storm arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 And that is based on what? Are you seeing something on the models that's making you think this? Not saying it can't happen, I'm just curious what you're seeing.He's not looking, he's regurgitating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Why? Why not? Why do you think it will be rain? The model runs are still showing a mix bag and as others like RaleighWx have said, it showed signifigant sleet/freezin rain for RDU. They have been consistent with this and have not changed from that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 He's not looking, he's regurgitating! Yeah, I am commenting on what others have said. This is the banter thread after all. I can read and process what others say. And so far the model runs are still showing a big wintry mess here with a mix bag of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I see the 12th system as a big one for Nc as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Why not? Why do you think it will be rain? The model runs are still showing a mix bag and as others like RaleighWx have said, it showed signifigant sleet/freezin rain for RDU. They have been consistent with this and have not changed from that yet. I know you are, but what am I? Why do you think a 5+ day winter storm that is barely a winter storm will be a colder winter storm in 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I know you are, but what am I? Why do you think a 5+ day winter storm that is barely a winter storm will be a colder winter storm in 5 days? I didn't say it would be. I said I hope it would be. Why do you think it won't? I think some of you just look for the worst possible outcome with these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah, this is just a little bit of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Now, we have 11 of the last 12 GFS runs and the last 4 Euro runs with at least a good portion of NC getting significant wintry precip. within 2/11-13. I want to keep this tally going because it is IMO a good indicator of the chances this will actually materialize. Also, I feel it is good for record keeping of the models' performance after the fact, which may help establish confidence levels for forecasting future threats. You can't really deny these trends, either. Yeah, it might change, but until it starts doing that it looks like as of right now there can be a big winter storm here next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 After seeing some soundings it is a lot more zr than I thought but I still think we need the hp to hold longer or it will turn into a rain event. Yeah, this is just a little bit of ice. As you can see I've already mentioned that after looking at soundings it was more zr than I thought...But it takes a little time to get soundings in and if you would take a look at the model every once in a while you would be able to tell how close it was to just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I didn't say it would be. I said I hope it would be. Why do you think it won't? I think some of you just look for the worst possible outcome with these things. False. You said you didn't think it would trend away from a big storm. But I'm with you...I hope HOPE we get a big snowstorm too. Unfortunately snowstorms don't happen because Cold Rain hopes they will or because the Dgex clown map shows one or because the 7 day GFS is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't see why anyone wants to argue about something next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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