Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It is so frustrating to see a crappy pattern as far as the eye can see. Are their any positive take-aways from any of the ensembles? Or are we going to be stuck with crap until Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It is so frustrating to see a crappy pattern as far as the eye can see. Are their any positive take-aways from any of the ensembles? Or are we going to be stuck with crap until Spring? So you don't think the ice threat for next week is real? Or is anything but snow crappy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADManager Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 FFC is monitoring the situation tomorrow. 231 PM EST WED FEB 5 2014...FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER TO AREATHURSDAY EVENING...OVERVIEW...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THEMISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THURSDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREADMOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THURSDAYAFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT RAINDEVELOPING FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON INITIALLY BY 10 AM TO NOON. FROMTHERE...IT WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO START IN THE ATLANTA METRODURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE ONSET OFPRECIPITATION...THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WHICHWILL RESULT IN JUST A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE RAINCONTINUES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH LIGHT SNOW MIXING INWITH THE RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE AND UPTO THE ATLANTA METRO DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. NORTH OFTHE METRO AND INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEMAINLY SNOW BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. ALL THEPRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDERTEMPERATURES MOVING IN ITS WAKE.IMPACTS...AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FAR DIFFERENT SCENARIO THANLAST WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THEPRECIPITATION IS FALLING. ALSO...LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATIONWILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. BASED ON THESEFACTORS...WE ARE GOING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR MOST ALLAREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINSWHERE A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. BY FAR...THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTWILL BE THE BLACK ICE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURESRUSH IN AND RESIDUAL WET ROADWAYS BECOME SLICK DUE TO ICE. THISTHREAT COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NOTEXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL 10 AM.SUMMARY...THIS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING WINTER WEATHER EVENT WITH THESCOPE REMAINING UNCERTAIN. WE WILL BE VIGOROUSLY INSPECTING THELATEST DATA TO COME IN THIS EVENING TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS IFANY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THURSDAYNIGHT AND FRIDAY TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GSP discussion talking about the next week potential LATEST 12Z ECMWF INDICATES CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF AWINTRY MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I85 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY AND THECAD ERODES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. LIKEWISE...PTYPEWILL TRANSITION FROM A WINTRY MIX TO ALL RAIN WITH THIS PATTERNLEADING TO MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TRENDSCOOLER WITH THE CAD HOLDING STRONG THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THISWOULD OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO ISSUES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIAL ICEACCUMULATION ACROSS AREAS ALONG AN NORTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR. ASFOR THE FORECAST...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO AS CONFIDENCE INEITHER REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So you don't think the ice threat for next week is real? Or is anything but snow crappy? I think the pattern sucks and I think the ice storm next week isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We'll see. Meanwhile, this Friday night snow could be sneaking up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think the pattern sucks and I think the ice storm next week isn't going to happen. I like it! Reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 And the forecast for here today has been a total bust. Monday they called for highs in the mid 60s today. Yesterday the forecast was for the mid 50s. It hasn't gotten above 50 yet and the clouds have not cleared as fast as they thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I can't wait to get in on the western edge of the precip shield for this weekend storm with 850s easily below zero and get white rain or just plain rain rather than snow because we can't get surface temperatures below 35. Raleigh is actually being kind of bullish, and just added rain/snow to my point forecast on Friday Night/Saturday, FWIW (not much, really). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't think it knows how to snow in the daytime anymore. I really don't.It didn't snow last week during the day in your area? Hell I even saw sleet during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We'll see. Meanwhile, this Friday night snow could be sneaking up on us.It's not gonna sneak up on anybody with temps in the 40s and midday arrival Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think the pattern sucks and I think the ice storm next week isn't going to happen.Clearly. What are they seeing? I mean it not like there is any support for a winter storm like last week. The DGEX is ****ing horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's not gonna sneak up on anybody with temps in the 40s and midday arrival I meant Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How many systems are we tracking right now? I'm lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How many systems are we tracking right now? I'm lost.Only 1 rain event for next week. Unless you count this week's virga storm. It funny because this weekend storm was supposed a huge ice storm yall were fearing Saturday and Sunday. Now it's BS. Now folks are jumping to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well genius... if you're so damn smart then. Please explain to me why is not a fantasy storm? Again 150+ hours out last time I checked... Its 2-5-14... not 2-12-14 The mood swings will continue with each run... only to be lost and every body is boohooing then its brought back with in 48-72 of event only to be slap in the face with reality its a fooking rainstorm. Fantasy storms typically is anything that is modeled once with no real support....typically after truncation. Getting models on board for multiple runc 5-7 days out is not a fantasy storm as it has support. It's not really a "fantasy" i.e. "the faculty or activity of imagining things, esp. things that are impossible or improbable." The storm next week is more than probably and in fact right now looks likely. How cold will it be? Hard to say. This weekends storm was pretty awful model wise. I mean it's changed just over two days. That is really not the norm and given the last storm how models had it 7 days out it wasn't too much to go out on a limb thinking the models were latching again. Just my two cents anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It didn't snow last week during the day in your area? Hell I even saw sleet during the day. I saw like one flurry right before the sun set. The about 7:00, it started coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Only 1 rain event for next week. Unless you count this week's virga storm. It funny because this weekend storm was supposed a huge ice storm yall were fearing Saturday and Sunday. Now it's BS. Now folks are jumping to next week. I gotcha. Personally, i'm glad it's not a huge ice storm anymore. Some people love it but after you go seven days without power twice it's just not fun anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 All that discussion the pattern thread. If it does this, all we need is, if only there was, to bad it's not. I've seen this setup 100 times. It's a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Fantasy storms typically is anything that is modeled once with no real support....typically after truncation. Getting models on board for multiple runc 5-7 days out is not a fantasy storm as it has support. It's not really a "fantasy" i.e. "the faculty or activity of imagining things, esp. things that are impossible or improbable." The storm next week is more than probably and in fact right now looks likely. How cold will it be? Hard to say. This weekends storm was pretty awful model wise. I mean it's changed just over two days. That is really not the norm and given the last storm how models had it 7 days out it wasn't too much to go out on a limb thinking the models were latching again. Just my two cents anyways. Read my signature from isohume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 All that discussion the pattern thread. If it does this, all we need is, if only there was, to bad it's not. I've seen this setup 100 times. It's a cold rain.I know right. Somebody (not calling anyone out) compared this weekend non-event to the boxing day 2010 storm two days ago. Knew damn well it would not be a repeat of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm THIS close to cancelling Yellow Alert. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm THIS close to cancelling Yellow Alert. :( C'mon, throw the towel...C'mon, C'mon! I double dog dare ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm THIS close to cancelling Yellow Alert. :( Yes, I think Red Alert is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 C'mon, throw the towel...C'mon, C'mon! I double dog dare ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 C'mon, throw the towel...C'mon, C'mon! I double dog dare ya! What else was there but a "triple dare you?" And then, the coup de grace of all dares, the sinister triple-dog-dare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So we're only supposed to talk about what the weather is going to be like tomorrow? You sir are the last person on this board to be giving your opinion or commenting on that situation. I mean the absolute very last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You sir are the last person on this board to be giving your opinion or commenting on that situation. I mean the absolute very last. He just summarizes up every ones thoughts. Apparently he says I post the same thing all the time when he says the same things. "the models are trending better and better. Might be the best storm in 3 years." "I hate cold and dry. If it's not going to snow it might as well be warm" "All of a sudden things are looking bad after looking so great, we might as well choose the Models showing no snow " "This the best look since January 2000, or the models didn't get the January 2000 storm right. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I actually feel better the 18z GFS doesn't have the storm... any 18z solution I've seen never pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 He just summarizes up every ones thoughts. Apparently he says I post the same thing all the time when he says the same things. "the models are trending better and better. Might be the best storm in 3 years." "I hate cold and dry. If it's not going to snow it might as well be warm" "All of a sudden things are looking bad after looking so great, we might as well choose the Models showing no snow " "This the best look since January 2000, or the models didn't get the January 2000 storm right. " Yup. All 4000+ post of his is the same. Why is he still around Idk. I would have banned him along time ago on eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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