superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes, day 6 has some energy digging down to w-Tx with SLP forming. It will probably get shredded. Looks a lot juicier than 18z so far. I love looking at day 7+ storms. Modeled Big Dogs are the only Big Dogs we get anymore. Not if the NE get's 6-10" again, for like the 8th time this year. Yeah, but the discussions were usually along the lines of Delaware getting 24-36" and such nonsense. That isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Real shame that GOA vortex of death is there, otherwise this could be a pretty darn good look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You can really tell how cracked out the GFS is, when analysis of a model run has to be in banter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Always some good 200 hour storms on the GFS, this one looks like a TN light snow special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks a lot juicier than 18z so far. I love looking at day 7+ storms. Modeled Big Dogs are the only Big Dogs we get anymore. Yeah, but the discussions were usually along the lines of Delaware getting 24-36" and such nonsense. That isn't going to happen. We literally just went through this 48 hours ago with a GFS 7 day fantasy storm, but there is going to be another it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We literally just went through this 48 hours ago with a GFS 7 day fantasy storm, but there is going to be another it looks like. And the beat goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Can the cold air stay in place for this one *spins the wheel* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is a weird looking system... it's snowing in N NC at the same time it's snowing in central TX. Okay. Looks like it might be setting up NC for a 48-hour light snow event. The NW trend should put Kansas City and those parts in the game for another 8-12" in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 h5 doesn't look very impressive at all, overall pattern not conducive for widespread winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Let's see how many lows we can pop this time. Any bets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Real shame that GOA vortex of death is there, otherwise this could be a pretty darn good look... That's the one thing we don't need, so it will be the one constant feature that never changes, you can count on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That's the one thing we don't need, so it will be the one constant feature that never changes, you can count on that! We need Cold Rain to mark that one up for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I thought we were going to see what this storm had prior to truncation but I guess not....Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LOL, runs right up to truncation with somewhat heavier snow moving into NC and CAD doing the dirty work. It looks like it shows some snow in MBY from hr 165 all the way to (and presumably past) truncation. Slowest moving Gulf Low ever. Don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Prepare for truncation. Set and setting is everything. I hope you didn't get bad acid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow, the damn thing blows up right after truncation and hammers the western Piedmont and foothills with 12"+ of snow. Ice further south/east. LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LOL at 264, looks like I bought the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow, the damn thing blows up right after truncation and hammers the western Piedmont and foothills with 12"+ of snow. Ice further south/east. LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Valentines love coming together? While that may well be conducive to a long and happy relationship, I don't see the connection to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If we got half of that crazy 00z GFS snow for my back yard, I will have the best valentines day present ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 While that may well be conducive to a long and happy relationship, I don't see the connection to weather. I was hoping that you and I could rekindle our love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I was hoping that you and I could rekindle our love. Sorry. I don't believe in mixed marriages. You're from another region. It would never work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I have a feeling that a few extra people will be paying the 0Z Doctor a visit. Keep in mind that the 12Z Euro also had the 2/12-13 Miller A storm. This is obviously still too far out for any real confidence, especially considering the very poor GFS/Euro performance for 2/7-9. However, that poor performance doesn't necessarily mean that 2/12-13 will end up being poorly handled in retrospect. If we can keep this near textbook Miller A with cold high to the north setup going for a couple more days of GFS/Euro runs, say into 2/7, then we'd be within 5 days and could then really get excited about the potential. Until then, it really is just a crapshoot/great entertainment. If this materializes, I sure hope N GA would trend colder lol. One thing that worries me is the tendency of Miller A lows to trend northward as one gets closer, which would be a bad thing for almost all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Sorry. I don't believe in mixed marriages. You're from another region. It would never work. We have some excellent geriatric facilities over here across the hill. We can make this work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I have a feeling that a few extra people will be paying the 0Z Doctor a visit. Keep in mind that the 12Z Euro also had the 2/12-13 Miller A storm. This is obviously still too far out for any real confidence, especially considering the very poor GFS/Euro performance for 2/7-9. However, that poor performance doesn't necessarily mean that 2/12-13 will end up being poorly handled in retrospect. If we can keep this near textbook Miller A with cold high to the north setup going for a couple more days of GFS/Euro runs, say into 2/7, then we'd be within 5 days and could then really get excited about the potential. Until then, it really is just a crapshoot/great entertainment. If this materializes, I sure hope N GA would trend colder lol. One thing that worries me is the tendency of Miller A lows to trend northward as one gets closer, which would be a bad thing for almost all here. I should have went to bed at 10:30! I'm not staying up for the good Doc! I hope to wake up to an additional 2-3 pages, and I'll know it was positive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I could never love someone who isn't in a CAD area... ITS ALL WE HAVE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We have some excellent geriatric facilities over here across the hill. We can make this work. Actually, we can't. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok, rant here. It is amazing to me how much snow the rest of the country has gotten (and is getting) and how we absolutely cannot buy a decent one. Dot get me wrong, I am very grateful for the inch I got last week and it was beautiful, but it wasn't even enough to make a snowman with. Meanwhile, the rest of the country has been literally digging out, and many places that historically get very little have seen multiple events. Now, yes, I know this is the southeast but it's not like we aren't supposed to see some snow, and its not like we haven't had any cold or precipitation. How can we not have possibly threaded the needle at least one or two solid times? This is crazy! Ok, done now. I won't speculate as to why but pretty much everything has been kind of jacked the last couple of years. Nothing has been approaching "normal" as it was in my first few decades living here in the South. And it's kind of jacked up everywhere - I feel especially sorry for those folks out west with that never-ending mystery ridge offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The GFS model should only be ran twice a day like the Euro. Probably get lot better performance from it then. Wx nerds and weenies should start an online petition for a twice a day run. But Dr No( RAH) says the end result is the same. Miller A rainstorm for this weekend. Posted this in the Pattern Discussion thread, but it probably belongs in banter, how many SLP's can one model have at one time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 an update to their radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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