Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 It's not really about warm/cold.. we all know it's going to get cold again. The exuberance over a day10 HECS on one model is a little flimsy. If it was a run of the mill 4-8" there would be little chatter. But you have to admit (fantasy range and all) that it's a pretty sick storm. It's like buying a megamillions ticket. You know it won't happen but always dream about if it did. And gefs p005 has it to so there's that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I overheard someome talking about about a big stomfirst week of March. Lol. Who is honking already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I overheard someome talking about about a big stomfirst week of March. Lol. Who is honking already? Kato-dawg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 first predictions IAD 17 JYO 26 BWI 23 DCA 3.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 first predictions IAD 17 JYO 26 BWI 23 DCA 3.9 Dude, come on now. That's ridiculous. No way DCA measures that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 It's good to see all the snow hounds have lost it. Buuuuttttt iiiittt'sssss thhhhheeeee EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 first predictions IAD 17 JYO 26 BWI 23 DCA 3.9 3.9 of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Buuuuttttt iiiittt'sssss thhhhheeeee EURO! you do realize it is mostly tongue-in-cheek?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 first predictions IAD 17 JYO 26 BWI 23 DCA -3.9 Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 you do realize it is mostly tongue-in-cheek?... but everyone does appear to legitimately be chasing a d10ish HECS. i guess once you get one HECS it's allowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 but everyone does appear to legitimately be chasing a d10ish HECS. i guess once you get one HECS it's allowable. to some extent...there is still a heavy dose of levity and sarcasm involved...It is a good advertised pattern...I think most of us know the score...we're a pretty smart (though annoying at times) forum as you know...hopefully you'll hop on board the "train" soon and we can name the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 to some extent...there is still a heavy dose of levity and sarcasm involved...It is a good advertised pattern...I think most of us know the score...we're a pretty smart (though annoying at times) forum as you know...hopefully you'll hop on board the "train" soon and we can name the storm I think something is likely in that period. Other than atmospheric memory not sure I can get aboard pd2 returns yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Lol to the stories...the wedding-skip storm ranking scale...day 5 looks like a coworker, but possibly one you are pretty tight with...day 10 is at least a first cousin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I think something is likely in that period. Other than atmospheric memory not sure I can get aboard pd2 returns yet. hopefully we get something..I'm a QPF whore at this point...I want a massive complex even if the track is messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I think something is likely in that period. Other than atmospheric memory not sure I can get aboard pd2 returns yet. If anybody needs me I will be tracking the 1% tornado threat for Norfolk on day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 If anybody needs me I will be tracking the 1% tornado threat for Norfolk on day 4Don't be dumb who is doing that? You will never see any severe weenies super excited about a day 10 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Don't be dumb who is doing that? You will never see any severe weenies super excited about a day 10 threat. It's really hard for me not to be dumb...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 My flight out is Friday afternoon Feb 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 People certainly are not nearly as excited for severe as they are snow. No doubt about that. I'd say most of that is due to our locale. We do snow well contrary to what people say. We do not do severe/tornados very well. Maybe I'm wrong, but most of our severe days are either messy or linear. We rarely ever get big discrete cells around here. That's not to say you need discrete cells for tors, but it's what you see in most big outbreaks. We're just not a big severe area and that plays into how this subforum treats severe vs snow. Again, maybe I'm wrong. Ian, please do correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 People certainly are not nearly as excited for severe as they are snow. No doubt about that. I'd say most of that is due to our locale. We do snow well contrary to what people say. We do not do severe/tornados very well. Maybe I'm wrong, but most of our severe days are either messy or linear. We rarely ever get big discrete cells around here. That's not to say you need discrete cells for tors, but it's what you see in most big outbreaks. We're just not a big severe area and that plays into how this subforum treats severe vs snow. Again, maybe I'm wrong. Ian, please do correct me if I'm wrong. The other part about severe is that it is often localized. Easier to get excited about a big snowstorm that is going to bury a wide region than a spin-up tornado in La Plata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 The other part about severe is that it is often localized. Easier to get excited about a big snowstorm that is going to bury a wide region than a spin-up tornado in La Plata. Yeah, that as well. You can have a pretty good idea of where things will fire, but how big of an area? A few hundred mile radius? Saying the entire metro area should expect 3-6/4-8 gives all of us some love. Not to say anyone wants big severe at their house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Spent the day yesterday trudging through a foot of snow in Highland County helping a friend tap maple trees.....sap was already running. Of course, it being 42-45 degrees helped a lot. Never thought about how much 'work' we were putting in until I got home and ate and turned TV on a little after 8....only to wake up after 1 am still in recliner haha! Best part is I'll get 'paid' later in syrup! EDIT- Oh, BTW did anyone else have thunder freezing rain this am??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 NFL MLB/NHL Playoffs Soccer NHL Reg Season CFB NHL seasons get split up. Playoff hockey is beyond awesome NHL playoffs NHL reg season NFL College hockey NFL playoffs NCAA BB tournament rest But agree with Bob, women beach v-ball is an enjoyable sport to watch also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 you do realize it is mostly tongue-in-cheek?... Exact-a-mundo, my DC lawyer friend. That's where I'm coming from too. My prediction of the Great Appalachian Blizzard of March 2014 is also tongue-in-cheek, even though I will be sure to flood all the Mid-Atlantic threads with pictures and obs since I know you all love to hear about weather hundreds of miles from the home office of this subforum. And that whole tongue-in-cheek stuff, we're talking about the face-cheek, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I think something is likely in that period. Other than atmospheric memory not sure I can get aboard pd2 returns yet. I can't wait for all the breathless comparisons to March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 I can't wait for all the breathless comparisons to March 1993. I saw some analogs from the late17th century. Woah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Did I hear snow, d10? Lol, it's already getting around my town about the "big one" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I am not much of a meteorological guru, but when it comes to warmups I am often spot on. Its one of those little ironies in life, I guess. Tuesday we were progged to hit 49 for a high. We promptly spiked to 59. Last night I stated we would hit 62 to 65 today in spite of the NWS forecast of 55. Well, we topped out at 64. The snowpack is a total disaster. We are down to 35 percent areal snow cover. We lost at least 4 inches of snow in the south facing lawns. It was hot as hell. The February sun was ferocious and raging. Even the big plowed snowpiles in the shopping centers took a major hit. I was walking around with a damn t-shirt today. No coat at all. It was just too hot. The lawns that face north and east have anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of snow in some cases. My north lawn has 7-8 inches of snow on the level. I think this is due to the very cold ground underneath. I have seen snowfields along Minnieville Road near Darbydale Rd, a place I refer to as the Leninskaya Slope because of the way it retains snow even in heatwaves like this one, that have 5 inches of snow easily. Behind Giant's in Center Plaza there is an area of snow that is protected by trees that had 5-6 inches of snow on it even after today's torrid sunshine assault. There is snow in woodlands as well. Glendale Road near Dale Blvd, my immediate 'hood, has a place where some homes have north facing lawns. These front lawns backed by woods have decent snowpack, 3 to 5 inches deep. Even Glendale Road near the creek, has a snowpacked sidewalk with 1-3 inches of snow EVEN AFTER TODAY'S 64 DEGREE WEATHER!!! Those lawns on Glendale Rd near Dale Blvd, always keep their snow the longest in heatwaves. What we have is a very cold ground indeed. Too bad this heatwave will mild it up by Sunday. Tonight we get to cool down to a much more tolerable 32 degrees. Tomorrow will spike back up to 60. Tomorrow night is the real bad news - lows near 50 degrees. That will melt all of the remaining snow cover, even in protected places such as north of houses. By late this weekend the combination of very warm weather combined with a raging merciless February sun will dramatically downsize even plowed piles. The ground will thaw and dry out some. It is expected to cool off next week, but after that I expect a major, massive warming trend. I expect at least a few 80s in March and perhaps a 90 reading. This cool pattern we have been in courtesy of the -epo, is about to undergo a radical alteration. By March 17 we will be in spring weather, much more representative of April or even of May values. Storm chasers will have a field day this spring, lots of cold airmasses clashing with warm humid weather. This upcoming spring/summer is going to be very very warm. Meanwhile, in other news...... Westminster, MD and I 83 Blizzard's 'hood in PA, enjoyed another brisk late winter day with upper 30s. The snowpack there is pristine, fluffy and near three FEET deep on a level. They expect near 40 highs then back into the teens and 20s in a week with more massive snows in March lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Uhm.... Do people really think Matt was serious with the analogs list? I can't tell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It's more fun when storms show up 3 days prior..d10 might as well be next winter...tracking for 3 days is fun but 10 is not since they rarely pan out...I need one more good one to feel great about this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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