Kmlwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm just going to hug the front-end stuff. Then if the models somehow take that away I'm going to lose it. Let's schedule a weather weenie riot in the streets if we lose the front end stuff. I'll bring the pitchforks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let's schedule a weather weenie riot in the streets if we lose the front end stuff. I'll bring the pitchforks. If we lose the front-end stuff there will be some epic weenie meltdowns. The front-end stuff seems like a legitimate lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 When the NAM folds like a cheap beach chair what are we going to hang our hats on until the EURO? It won't at 0z...she will look great and we will be drunk and in love....then at 6z we'll wake up with a headache, look over, and realize the reality of the situation while searching for our car keys...seen it happen a million times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 :-(. We are all worried no need to be snippy Sent from my iPhone Ok sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks, appreciate it. The radio show curse meme got old and dry a while ago and it's mildly annoying at this point. But a lame meme is a lame meme. No s***. This is a s****y deal right now, so I was making an intentionally lame joke. Lighten up, Francis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It won't at 0z...she will look great and we will be drunk and in love....then at 6z we'll wake up with a headache, look over, and realize the reality of the situation while searching for our car keys...seen it happen a million times LOL. I should really just give up all tracking for the night before the NAM because I know tomorrow I'm going to wake up to epic bust talk no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What happened to jack_frost lol ha ha lol. He usually had pretty good analysis in advance of the big ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I feel kinda bad for Bob Chill. He's one of the most avid trackers, but maintains a surreally positive outlook, despite our poor snow climo and the numerous shaftings a of the last few years. I swear I saw tears of joy on some of his posts last night as the Euro came in with a crushing blow - years of hard work chasing shadows had finally paid off. And now we're clinging to hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is DT's business successful? Do you think the maps or whatever he makes for his clients are as sloppy as his Internet postings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL. I should really just give up all tracking for the night before the NAM because I know tomorrow I'm going to wake up to epic bust talk no matter what.It's not really an epic bust if you know what's going happen before the event starts.BTW-- where do you teach? I teach Physics too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I feel kinda bad for Bob Chill. He's one of the most avid trackers, but maintains a surreally positive outlook, despite our poor snow climo and the numerous shaftings a of the last few years. I swear I saw tears of joy on some of his posts last night as the Euro came in with a crushing blow - years of hard work chasing shadows had finally paid off. And now we're clinging to hope... lol - front end stuff should still do well. If you were expecting 1-2 feet I guess you are clinging to hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's not really an epic bust if you know what's going happen before the event starts. BTW-- where do you teach? I teach Physics too... Dcps Columbia heights education campus, And urself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nah, don't feel bad for me. Last night was like last call capping off an awesome party. Then I woke up hungover and knew today wouldn't be as fun. And it wasn't. I live life water under the bridge style. Getting hosed with a storm is kinda normal. Rolls off the shoulders. Saturday looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Last night's euro run is pretty traumatic in retrospect. Reminder to always be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't think the forecasters are spending much time worrying about the extended range. My point-and-click forecast for Monday is chance of snow high 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Preview of the NAM.....woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Last night's euro run is pretty traumatic in retrospect. Reminder to always be negative.Funny how the Euro still causes that reflexive emotional reaction like no other model does. Again, take away that run and we'd be just a bit more pessimistic now than we were yesterday, expecting a significant period of non-snow into the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Last night's euro run is pretty traumatic in retrospect. Reminder to always be negative. I reminded you last night and you did not take my advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This has sleet sandwich written all over it....front end thump, a few inches of sleet, then departing snow on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 And now we're clinging to hope... What are we hoping for, exactly? I'm happy with today's model runs progging 3-6", along with decent dynamics. Should be a fun storm to track, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol - front end stuff should still do well. If you were expecting 1-2 feet I guess you are clinging to hope. I'm not going to lie and say that the Euro being so rock solid for a couple days, then delivering a blasting last night, didn't get my hopes up for a really big, almost all snow storm. I don't know enough about the weather to think the opposite - if the Euro is dead set on such a conclusion, who am I to question it? I studied History, not the applied sciences, and I don't have it in me to learn the same as "hobbyists" have. Then MN's post from earlier today about 6-8" being the very bottom of the range of possibilities got me pretty stoked. We may very well get that now, but we may also be dripping and drizzly by Thursday midday, and that's a bummer. As I don't think I'm the only one who feels that way. It's not going to ruin my life, and it's not going to cause me to go off the deep end. Hell...I'll have forgotten about it within a few days, and will be glad to see the snow gone within a week. But the 12z runs were a gut punch, and it hasn't really gotten better since. Here's to hoping things come around again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nah, don't feel bad for me. Last night was like last call capping off an awesome party. Then I woke up hungover and knew today wouldn't be as fun. And it wasn't. I live life water under the bridge style. Getting hosed with a storm is kinda normal. Rolls off the shoulders. Saturday looks interesting. I was trying to come up with an analogy for that run, and you nailed it. Absolutely nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not sure why people are concerned/worried/annoyed that NWS hasn't issued warnings, does it really matter? I guess it is just a feel-good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Funny how the Euro still causes that reflexive emotional reaction like no other model does. Again, take away that run and we'd be just a bit more pessimistic now than we were yesterday, expecting a significant period of non-snow into the cities.Definitely plus it wasn't that different than the prior run but better for most everyone. I think we were hoping that meant it was locking in but that's never easy to say 48 out. It could still go back tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Last night's euro run is pretty traumatic in retrospect. Reminder to always be negative. As relatively reticent as you come off (specifically when it comes to snow), you definitely weren't last night. I read it all this morning and was having a good chuckle at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not sure why people are concerned/worried/annoyed that NWS hasn't issued warnings, does it really matter? I guess it is just a feel-good thing? If anything (for the superstitious folks) it tends to be great when LWX is behind lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This has sleet sandwich written all over it....front end thump, a few inches of sleet, then departing snow on top.I'll take that over the rain the 18z GFS gave us.Last night was incredible. Going to sleep after the Euro...waking up to see the words "Crippling winter storm" in the LWX AFD. Yeah, we should be thankful we are still looking good for 4" in even the worst case scenario, but it's hard not to be a little down at this point, and anyone who says they aren't is either lying or a very, very glass half-full individual. Here's to a rockin' 0z suite. At the very least for the collective morale of the board we need the NAM to remain steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I reminded you last night and you did not take my advice.Don't lie--you're hoping this falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are we hoping for, exactly? I'm happy with today's model runs progging 3-6", along with decent dynamics. Should be a fun storm to track, if nothing else. Everyone sees things differently, and it's cool that you're good with 3-6" and dynamics. I'm hoping for more since, at least for now, less that 8" would be disappointing for me. I have a hard time dialing down my expectations once they go up. Oh well. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Never been this nervous about a model run....before the 12z runs I felt like Apollo Creed just before he stepped in the ring with Ivan Drago....then I went down hard and James Brown wasn't singing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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