Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 No idea. It's D7 and models are everywhere but the moon. True, at the rate we're going, we'll likely miss it. "Wide Right" as Buffalo Bills fans like to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You sure? I'm showing (per DTW's QPF reports on Weather Underground) that at least 0.76" of the total 1.6" in QPF fell as rain, maybe more as there's a period where there was a sloppy mix of rain/sleet/snow. Well on 2/26, the total precip was 1.19" with total snowfall for the day 2.5". Of that, per obs...0.10" fell as plain rain, 0.53" fell as a mix of rain, sleet and snow (though at this point it was more rain), and 0.56" as plain snow. The on the 27th it was 0.38" precip and 4.0" snow, but over half of that snow was in the evening with a higher ratio snow which continued into early the 28th. So if Im remembering it correctly... 0.10" - rain 0.56" - mix 0.77" - snow (3.5") brief break 0.23" - snow (3.6") Regardless it was a case of irony as that was a winter of fluff then we got slush to end all slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm actually excited for this one.... I don't know why, I'm just feel'n it. I love these bowling ball scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm actually excited for this one.... I don't know why, I'm just feel'n it. I love these bowling ball scenarios. I'm cautiously optimistic. Given the winter Toronto has been having snow-wise, 6" would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0z GFS will likely be considerably lamer than recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks weaker so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks weaker so far. Yeah the trough/vort clearly isn't as potent at previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll wait until the 4th or 5th to even consider this worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well on 2/26, the total precip was 1.19" with total snowfall for the day 2.5". Of that, per obs...0.10" fell as plain rain, 0.53" fell as a mix of rain, sleet and snow (though at this point it was more rain), and 0.56" as plain snow. The on the 27th it was 0.38" precip and 4.0" snow, but over half of that snow was in the evening with a higher ratio snow which continued into early the 28th. So if Im remembering it correctly... 0.10" - rain 0.56" - mix 0.77" - snow (3.5") brief break 0.23" - snow (3.6") Regardless it was a case of irony as that was a winter of fluff then we got slush to end all slush. FWIW, I didn't even count that stuff on late 2/27/13 in my earlier post. I find it strange that the daily total is 0.38" for 2/27/13, yet just calculating the early morning stuff and excluding the late afternoon fluff, I calculated total QPF of 0.41". Any explanation for that? Also, I'm pretty certain that we didn't begin mixing over on 2/26/13 until around 4:30-5 PM based on my recollection and the observations in the storm thread (and it was only a brief period of rain/snow/sleet mix). Everything before that was a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Here fishy fishy fishy. See OB? This is why it's dumb to talk accums. regarding a storm 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is really far south. OV may get some snow out of it on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Canadian has an HECS.....weak low coming out of the gulf, strengthening and heading up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Canadian has an HECS.....weak low coming out of the gulf, strengthening and heading up the coast At least it has something now after losing it for multiple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 FWIW, I didn't even count that stuff on late 2/27/13 in my earlier post. I find it strange that the daily total is 0.38" for 2/27/13, yet just calculating the early morning stuff and excluding the late afternoon fluff, I calculated total QPF of 0.41". Any explanation for that? Also, I'm pretty certain that we didn't begin mixing over on 2/26/13 until around 4:30-5 PM based on my recollection and the observations in the storm thread (and it was only a brief period of rain/snow/sleet mix). Everything before that was a cold rain. good catch on the 2/27. Too late to change that now http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDTW/2013/2/26/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA according to this it was all rain from noon-3pm, rain mixed with some snow/sleet 4-5pm, then all snow. Regardless what I remember is how we were racking up those fluffy snowfalls like no ones business last year, and I was happy to be seeing a wet snow. It began sticking immediately at changeover, yet it kept snowing and was just not piling up. Not a fan of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At least it has something now after losing it for multiple runs. I agree....and it's a typical ggem bias...strong coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At least it has something now after losing it for multiple runs. Plenty of time for that one to change for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Plenty of time for that one to change for the better. I can finally root with you guys for a nw trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Plenty of time for that one to change for the better. I was kinda surprised how far north the precip is on the precip plots considering the surface low is south of New Orleans at 144 hours and really not much of an inverted trough signature. There's light stuff all the way up toward I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I was kinda surprised how far north the precip is on the precip plots considering the surface low is south of New Orleans at 144 hours and really not much of an inverted trough signature. There's light stuff all the way up toward I-80. might be from the upper low dropping in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Here fishy fishy fishy. See OB? This is why it's dumb to talk accums. regarding a storm 7 days out. Canadian has an HECS.....weak low coming out of the gulf, strengthening and heading up the coast Wow. Good things there is plenty of time for this to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 06z GFS is much better for a good portion of the region, less confluence to our northeast and the primary low makes it into southern Ohio. Certainly a better outcome than the 00z which plowed east northeast The low track is more north northeast from southern MS to southern OH. Eventually it does transfer to the coast which is to be expected but overall it is a favorable change for many here. What this says to me overall though is that we should expect higher than normal model volatility until we probably get much closer to the event itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 south and east is clearly the way to go at this point, split stream with limited interaction over the central plains/western lakes isn't going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 south and east is clearly the way to go at this point, split stream with limited interaction over the central plains/western lakes isn't going anywhere. Yeah this is a southern stream wave that will be ejecting northeast, if/when it were to phase significantly with the northern stream it would explode considering the strength of the southern stream wave. The key is the ridge placement and location ahead of it to give the eastern parts of the region something of significance. The fact that the GFS which is usually flatter in these situations should raise an eyebrow over the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 south and east is clearly the way to go at this point, split stream with limited interaction over the central plains/western lakes isn't going anywhere. I agree, I honestly feel better about that one than I do about tomorrows nights.....in terms of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let me take a stab at this for the Detroit area 3" to 6" again? Keep em coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 as I said in the ohio thread.... 84 hr nam is calling the ducks to the pond. Gulf opening up, strong energy dropping in from the nw, -30 850's poised north in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let me take a stab at this for the Detroit area 3" to 6" again? Keep em coming Medium confidence call of 2-4" at this point. Will re-visit for final prediction later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 now that we're out of the NW flow pattern, the Euro has been performing well. Ride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The fact that the GFS which is usually flatter in these situations should raise an eyebrow over the potential. ^that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 nw trend worthy....lol DT jackpots at 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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