RyanDe680 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well for one, neither the storm today/tonight nor the 4th-5th storm manage to really amplify and bomb out enough to completely work over the atmosphere, as they both simply get sheared off to the NE too quickly. For two, look how far northward this ridge builds northward. You're talking an absolute stream of moisture with the orientation of those height contours. Thats one of the deepest ridge's I've seen all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 EURO not as bad as the GEM but it tends to suggest the GFS ingested some meth at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 EURO not as bad as the GEM but it tends to suggest the GFS ingested some meth at 12z. I'd love for it to be right though. What a storm that would be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No different then you "punting" a storm a week out. Completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 EURO not as bad as the GEM but it tends to suggest the GFS ingested some meth at 12z. It locks up the main energy in the warm sector and has a general 1-3" across the board. Better than the GGEM which had nothing, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JB on the storm late week/weekend euro mishandling it. thinks it will be a blizzard I-70 north Midwest to northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not gonna lie it would be a bit frustrating to somewhat neuter an H5 trough like the GFS is showing with the lack of meaningful leeside cyclogenesis given the antecedent pattern, I'm fairly sure we'd be seeing some serious bombs/blizzards if there wasn't so much suppression as a result of the HP in wake of the Feb 4th/5th system. To see some of the solutions even with that proceeding pattern that the GEFS are offering speaks to how potentially strong this upper level system could be. And yes if it seems like I'm leaning towards tracking some severe weather, I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS is a perfect example why it's almost impossible for the YYZ-DTW corridor to get a major 18" type snowfall. You have a closed H5 system with a perfect track for +SN, but at the surface, everything is peeling away towards the EC baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS is a perfect example why it's almost impossible for the YYZ-DTW corridor to get a major 18" type snowfall. You have a closed H5 system with a perfect track for +SN, but at the surface, everything is peeling away towards the EC baroclinic zone. I wonder if PDII is a good analog? That west to east bowler that blew up on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wow what a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JB on the storm late week/weekend euro mishandling it. thinks it will be a blizzard I-70 north Midwest to northeast Of course he'd say that. Most of his subscribers live in that area. He's a good met, but he has a tendency to wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS is a perfect example why it's almost impossible for the YYZ-DTW corridor to get a major 18" type snowfall. You have a closed H5 system with a perfect track for +SN, but at the surface, everything is peeling away towards the EC baroclinic zone. Does this run not show at least a foot for Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS is a perfect example why it's almost impossible for the YYZ-DTW corridor to get a major 18" type snowfall. You have a closed H5 system with a perfect track for +SN, but at the surface, everything is peeling away towards the EC baroclinic zone. Well there's that, and then there's the storms like 2/26/13 (1.5" of QPF with half of it falling as 33*F/34*F rain). http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0226.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GFS is a perfect example why it's almost impossible for the YYZ-DTW corridor to get a major 18" type snowfall. You have a closed H5 system with a perfect track for +SN, but at the surface, everything is peeling away towards the EC baroclinic zone.Ud Think a low would be strong enough to where it wouldn't transfer to the east. Always wondered why some transfer and some don't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well there's that, and then there's the storms like 2/26/13 (1.5" of QPF with half of it falling as 33*F/34*F rain). http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0226.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Does this run not show at least a foot for Toronto? I technically does but a lot of that QPF after 180 is some sort of post-truncation plotting error with the GFS. Toggle between 177 and 180 and watch how the precipitation just inexplicably explodes. In reality, sfc low off NJ coast is not going to dump on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I technically does but a lot of that QPF after 180 is some sort of post-truncation plotting error with the GFS. Toggle between 177 and 180 and watch how the precipitation just inexplicably explodes. In reality, sfc low off NJ coast is not going to dump on us. So if this run were to verify, how much would we get? 8-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Canuck, we could always get a storm like January 22-23, 1966. 43 cm!! http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=5097&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2012-12-01&Year=1966&cmdB1=Go&Month=1&Day=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So if this run were to verify, how much would we get? 8-10"? lol, you're too much OB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well there's that, and then there's the storms like 2/26/13 (1.5" of QPF with half of it falling as 33*F/34*F rain). http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0226.php Not true. A huge majority fell as snow, it was the most inefficient accumulating snow ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol, you're too much OB. In the upstate sub-forum, they're saying that the 18z GFS dumps 16-24 inches in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Not true. A huge majority fell as snow, it was the most inefficient accumulating snow ever. You sure? I'm showing (per DTW's QPF reports on Weather Underground) that at least 0.76" of the total 1.6" in QPF fell as rain, maybe more as there's a period where there was a sloppy mix of rain/sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 In the upstate sub-forum, they're saying that the 18z GFS dumps 16-24 inches in WNY. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol He's from Ottawa. They have higher expectations lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I technically does but a lot of that QPF after 180 is some sort of post-truncation plotting error with the GFS. Toggle between 177 and 180 and watch how the precipitation just inexplicably explodes. In reality, sfc low off NJ coast is not going to dump on us. take a look at where the mid-level centers are...the heavy precip is in the correct location with that set-up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 take a look at where the mid-level centers are...the heavy precip is in the correct location with that set-up... Location might be fine but the amounts are uber-inflated due to that post-truncation plotting error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol I'm guessing you're expecting another 2-4" event then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm guessing you're expecting another 2-4" event then? No idea. It's D7 and models are everywhere but the moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm guessing you're expecting another 2-4" event then? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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