TimChgo9 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At hour 192 on the GFS, is it showing 2 surface lows? One over Eastern Pennsylvania, and the other of eastern lower Michigan? Wouldn't they phase at this point? Or, is this the one low transferring to the coast? It looks curious, so I was wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 At hour 192 on the GFS, is it showing 2 surface lows? One over Eastern Pennsylvania, and the other of eastern lower Michigan? Wouldn't they phase at this point? Or, is this the one low transferring to the coast? It looks curious, so I was wondering. gfsUS_sfc_prec_192.gif To me it looks like a low is trying to pop near the coast but doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At hour 192 on the GFS, is it showing 2 surface lows? One over Eastern Pennsylvania, and the other of eastern lower Michigan? Wouldn't they phase at this point? Or, is this the one low transferring to the coast? It looks curious, so I was wondering. gfsUS_sfc_prec_192.gif Now see, we need ^^^THAT type of storm to top off this season... Probably too much to ask though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Latest GFS still shows around .5 for NE IL, NW IN, and SW MI, and about .15 or so going back up toward MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 00z GFS might be heading for another wild run if the transfer doesn't occur too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00z GFS might be heading for another wild run if the transfer doesn't occur too quickly. It does. But still a good hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wagons south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If winter 2014-2015 is average, it's going to feel like a turd. It's like driving 95mph down the expressway and then slowing down to the speed limit.... Feels like you are dragging @ss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00z GFS is showing a more southerly shift, I think. Best QPF stays just barely to the south, it looks like the LAF crew cashes in this run. Surface temps are cold all the way through S IN. then at hour 240, what is that system coming ashore in the PAC NW? The COD GFS runs only to 240 hours, is that another potential storm system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If winter 2014-2015 is average, it's going to feel like a turd. It's like driving 95mph down the expressway and then slowing down to the speed limit.... Feels like you are dragging @ss. Good analogy. We are living the dream, one storm right after another to track. We all remember going weeks at a time with nothing on the horizon. Good times. Keep the analysis coming guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Already big changes out west on the GFS. 12z run has a huge closed circulation at H5 over Idaho compared to a much weaker wave at 6z. If it wasn't for that downstream confluence I'd say get your umbrellas ready. As it is...this could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Already big changes out west on the GFS. 12z run has a huge closed circulation at H5 over Idaho compared to a much weaker wave at 6z. If it wasn't for that downstream confluence I'd say get your umbrellas ready. As it is...this could be interesting. yep big changes http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020212&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-500mb&hour=168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well hello GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 gfs 48hrshttp://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020212&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=183 and total for week http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=183 look at those light purples (24-27) in ne missouri and west central IL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 feels much better having the GFS on our side for this storm, compared to the NAM on our side for the Tues/Wed system. If this verified, I'd gladly wave as the Tues/Wed system passes by to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Meh, only a shift of a thousand miles or so. Still good continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princessugly Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Current state of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wagons.....aw, screw it, circle the wagons!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 183 hr snowmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 183 hr snowmaps No different then you "punting" a storm a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This may be a dumb question... But how is there this much moisture available? Especially after the storm hitting southern Missouri and Illinois tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z GFS at 174 hours....... if that verifies, with the surface temps and the 850 temps??? Nice swath of .75 and a big blob of 1" or more over west central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This may be a dumb question... But how is there this much moisture available? Especially after the storm hitting southern Missouri and Illinois tonight? Well for one, neither the storm today/tonight nor the 4th-5th storm manage to really amplify and bomb out enough to completely work over the atmosphere, as they both simply get sheared off to the NE too quickly. For two, look how far northward this ridge builds. You're talking an absolute stream of moisture with the orientation of those height contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GGEM is in a different world. It literally does not have this storm. At 144 where the GFS shows a trough, GGEM has a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No different then you "punting" a storm a week out. link? my last call was stunning and my track record speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Remember that the GGEM had a storm in this timeframe at one point...it's just lost it on recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Remember that the GGEM had a storm in this timeframe at one point...it's just lost it on recent runs. It had a storm but it wasn't impressive IIRC. GFS has been all on its own with these monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 It had a storm but it wasn't impressive IIRC. GFS has been all on its own with these monsters. Indeed, but the Euro has been showing something so odds favor a significant storm...how significant and where still tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Seems like P007, of the GEFS, always has some amped up bombs. 12z run does not disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Remember that the GGEM had a storm in this timeframe at one point...it's just lost it on recent runs. H5 comparison of both models show the GFS takes that retrograding piece of the PV and goes to town with its amplification. GGEM simply shears it out much earlier. Interesting thing about this storm is that because it's formed from a piece of the PV over central Canada, it's likely already been sampled well (or at least much better than had it come in off the Pacific). Hopefully that means less mayhem once we get it into D5 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.