Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 decent clipper like upper level thermal gradient but a better than average pac moisture connection....sloppy as all get out though. latest NAM looks 2-4 ish for N. IL & S. WI depending on ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 This would get more interesting if the northern stream s/w could amplify more and the southern stream wave could slow down, but I'm not sure there's enough time to see big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This would get more interesting if the northern stream s/w could amplify more and the southern stream wave could slow down, but I'm not sure there's enough time to see big changes. You never know. Models aren't exactly nailing the timing of these impulses. Still time, IMO, for a better overall look. Probably nothing drastic, but just...better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 stat padding at the highest level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 You never know. Models aren't exactly nailing the timing of these impulses. Still time, IMO, for a better overall look. Probably nothing drastic, but just...better. Well, 18z NAM did take a step in that direction. Stranger things have happened I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 stat padding at the highest level 10.2" between the last two events. Well probably a tad more since I haven't been home all day but getting to say 14" would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well, 18z NAM did take a step in that direction. Stranger things have happened I guess. See the 12z GGEM. And the following impulse as well. But, that's the best looking model at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 10.2" between the last two events. Well probably a tad more since I haven't been home all day but getting to say 14" would be nice ORD is only 8.9" away from the 10th snowiest February on record already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 through only 00Z 09FEB.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 21Z Plume mean for JOT is 2 inches....with five between 4 and 5 inches....half or so look to still have snow falling at 12Z 09FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 A lot of energy scattered about everywhere. Could be a few surprises but looks like a 1-3 type event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 nice disco from lot overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks minor only 1-2 inches. More interesting- will 5-7 day outlook of quiet hold or will it reload like it has since beginning of Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 3z SREF plume mean for ORD sitting around 3.3" with a range from about 0.5"-7.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 3z SREF plume mean for ORD sitting around 3.3" with a range from about 0.5"-7.0" I would like to have puff of what some of the sref members are smoking. .5-10.5 and 4.6 mean for LSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Interesting. My 9Z SREF mean is 4.2". That is a nice increase from the 2.2" mean on the 21Z I looked at yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 4km NAM looks good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 geos screw hole, toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 EURO pretty dry with this system. 0.1-0.2" of moisture from Hawkeye, Cyclone south to PIA. Might try to streak towards IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Dead on arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 When was the last time it didn't snow in Chicago on a Saturday? Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 LOT THE FIRST OF SEVERAL OF THESE PV ANOMALIES IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SURFACE REFLECTION FROM THIS DISTURBANCE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL BE QUITE POTENT. THEREFORE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR PRODUCING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THE MESOSCALE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT ARE STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...6.5-7.0 DEGREES C PER KM COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BEST DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AS SUCH...WHEREVER ANY BANDS OF GOOD FGEN SET UP...THERE COULD BE BANDING OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO PICK OUT ANY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR THIS POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY DEEP DGZ DURING THE EVENT COULD LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED RATIOS UP AROUND 15-16 TO 1. FOLLOWING THIS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE A 2 TO 4 INCH EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 skilling going 2-4. Last year board would have been hopping for this light to moderate event. Now...zzzzzzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like another 1-2 fluff event. Seen about 15 of those this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 skilling going 2-4. Last year board would have been hopping for this light to moderate event. Now...zzzzzzzz. Ha. I was just thinking the same. 2-4" and no one is impressed anymore. been stuck on thread page 9 for 2 days for a storm that is 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just going by Taft's map, which shows 2-3 inches, Naperville has moved to Southern Kane County and Elgin has moved to Central McHenry County, among many other misplaced cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Skilling sticking with 2-4". NAM dried a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 1.333" final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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