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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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and as the climate continues to warm that difference will continue to edge northward

My first car was a 1994 Honda Accord...other than that, I don't personally remember much about that year, as I was 8.

It is interesting though that age does seem to have a correlation to the opinion of March as a winter month vs a spring month. I wouldn't completely discount the GW aspect, as Forky alludes to.

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and as the climate continues to warm that difference will continue to edge northward

This winter reminds me of the late 1970s, which I remember, given the intensity of cold esp. in the Midwest when people were talking about global cooling.  I do remember a March in the late 1980s, I'm thinking 89 that had a lot of snow and cold here in SNE that had a lot of staying power in a decade that didn't seem to produce much.  But I was in college then and like everything from that time, lol, it's a little hazy.

 

Are we talking an upcoming thaw of a few days, week, weeks?

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This winter reminds me of the late 1970s, which I remember, given the intensity of cold esp. in the Midwest when people were talking about global cooling. I do remember a March in the late 1980s, I'm thinking 89 that had a lot of snow and cold here in SNE that had a lot of staying power in a decade that didn't seem to produce much. But I was in college then and like everything from that time, lol, it's a little hazy.

Are we talking an upcoming thaw of a few days, week, weeks?

In NNE that is a relevant question. I believe Hartford averages around 43 for a high to start March, and by the end of March it's mid 50s. Thaw becomes an irrelevant term. Even a cold pattern will have difficulty keeping temps at or below zero.

Sincere question for those who remember or have access to the data, did 1994 have any week-long periods of temps at or below freezing in March in CT (widespread)? Or any years since then?

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In NNE that is a relevant question. I believe Hartford averages around 43 for a high to start March, and by the end of March it's mid 50s. Thaw becomes an irrelevant term. Even a cold pattern will have difficulty keeping temps at or below zero.

Sincere question for those who remember or have access to the data, did 1994 have any week-long periods of temps at or below freezing in March in CT (widespread)? Or any years since then?

Agreed.  "Thaw" is a relative term.  Upper 30s, low 40s here in SNE in March, punctuated by some frozen events is not a thaw to me, but might be in NNE.  Just seems like the mets on here are indicating significantly above avg. late this month for some period of time.

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Regardless of what happens, there will be some potential threats over the next 10 days which hasn't changed. I would think after any thaw we head back to more ridging near AK...just my guess on persistance and long range modeling,

Thank you for your thoughts, my comments are in no way intended to discourage you for discussing what you see. I agree that we could have an exciting next week or two, and we are still in a winter month.

My poing was that if we are going to get unseasonably warm weather at the end of this month, then my own interpretation is that a "reload" into March could very well mean terrible spring weather down here as much as it could mean an extension of winter. Temps rise rapidly from the end of February onward down here.

So IF it's 35 and raining in CT while NNE gets a foot of snow, the CT folks won't go crying to Scooter saying "but you told us it was going reload and you were wrong." Maybe everyone will get epic cold and piles of snow that last until April, but a -EPO and/or NAO certainly doesn't guarantee it in March, even with precip. It does basically guarantee that it won't be sunny and 60s.

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Thank you for your thoughts, my comments are in no way intended to discourage you for discussing what you see. I agree that we could have an exciting next week or two, and we are still in a winter month.

My poing was that if we are going to get unseasonably warm weather at the end of this month, then my own interpretation is that a "reload" into March could very well mean terrible spring weather down here as much as it could mean an extension of winter. Temps rise rapidly from the end of February onward down here.

So IF it's 35 and raining in CT while NNE gets a foot of snow, the CT folks won't go crying to Scooter saying "but you told us it was going reload and you were wrong." Maybe everyone will get epic cold and piles of snow that last until April, but a -EPO and/or NAO certainly doesn't guarantee it in March, even with precip. It does basically guarantee that it won't be sunny and 60s.

 

Well of course temperatures warm in March, but it's still fairly easy to get snow. Most of us average 9-15" or so for a reason. A reload doesn't necessarily mean a redux to what we went through here...I just think that we may see the GOA trough move away and perhaps a cold shot to start March. It's early speculation...that's my guess. I certainly wouldn't call for epic cold and piles of snow at this stage.

 

So we have tonight's little event..and then perhaps 2 more event  until we get into a more milder pattern.

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March of course is not a snow retention month...never was. If you start the month with pack and add ala 1993 the it's good until the final days potentially. But in my many decades of March observation, the only time I saw pack retention was 1960 which featured a huge blizzard 3/3-4 and the following weeks way below normal and in fact actually colder vs February that year.

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If we can get 10 on thrusday, 4 more from the follow up clipper we'll have 2ft pack, more in the woods, great snowmobile trails and we could withstand a mini torch.  The glacier which is the lower 4-6 inches of snow pack is kinda unreal up here.  Been walking on 8 inches of power quite easily because the glacier is so solid.  That is what 6 weeks of mostly deepdeep will do.

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