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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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I don't think I see mets having a bias. In fact, usually it's the mets that are talking about warm ups. March averages between 9-15" or so of snow around SNE. Hoping for 65 and golf weather is more often than not going to lead to disappointment. Much better saving that until April. As a matter of fact my area has a better chance if a heavier snow event the first half of March compared to December thanks to SSTs.

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I may be wrong, but I think we still stand good shots at snow at least for the first few weeks of March.

Up until this time last year, we hadn't had much snow at all.

Winter doesn't end in 20 days, which keeps getting thrown around.

The modeling may show a warm up, which is normal, especially for southern New England.

It's February 8th, just because a warm up is shown doesn't mean it's the beginning of spring.

This winter cancel stuff is just as bad as the endless winter posts. It's New England winter, ups and downs

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I don't think I see mets having a bias. In fact, usually it's the mets that are talking about warm ups. March averages between 9-15" or so of snow around SNE. Hoping for 65 and golf weather is more often than not going to lead to disappointment. Much better saving that until April. As a matter of fact my area has a better chance if a heavier snow event the first half of March compared to December thanks to SSTs.

True, we have different climos in March. Latitude and longitude are both your friend for snow, but not mine. And yes, I agree that mets are more willing to talk about less than favorable patterns for snow, but everyone including mets is hoping for it, until it is no longer a reasonable possibility.

Plus, 45 is golf weather as long as there isn't snow on the ground, and that is a more than reasonable expectation for March in CT.

This is a bit banterish, but the lack of posts in this thread goes to show that when the LR shows above normal temps heading into met Spring, posters don't want to discuss it.

Btw, the pics you post of Bryce are adorable. I have a 3 yr old and a 2 yr old myself, and while playing in the snow with them is fun, it doesn't compare with running around in the backyard with them kicking a ball or taking rides on the lawn mower. It gets better every single year.

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I guess my point is this. Yes it does get mild with snowmelt and first flowers popping out f the ground....but for whatever reason there are some that forget the latitude they live on. March is a volatile month with many ups and downs but to hope for winter to end and rush in Spring in southern new england is going to be in for disappointment. This Spring on first look does not

Look nice.

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I may be wrong, but I think we still stand good shots at snow at least for the first few weeks of March.

Up until this time last year, we hadn't had much snow at all.

Winter doesn't end in 20 days, which keeps getting thrown around.

The modeling may show a warm up, which is normal, especially for southern New England.

It's February 8th, just because a warm up is shown doesn't mean it's the beginning of spring.

This winter cancel stuff is just as bad as the endless winter posts. It's New England winter, ups and downs

March doesn't equal winter cancel, it equals winter conclusion. I am not commenting on this week, next week or even the week after.. but if that week is a torch, then yeah it's time to start thinking about winter conclusion. Not over, but definitely coming to an end.

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True, we have different climos in March. Latitude and longitude are both your friend for snow, but not mine. And yes, I agree that mets are more willing to talk about less than favorable patterns for snow, but everyone including mets is hoping for it, until it is no longer a reasonable possibility.

Plus, 45 is golf weather as long as there isn't snow on the ground, and that is a more than reasonable expectation for March in CT.

This is a bit banterish, but the lack of posts in this thread goes to show that when the LR shows above normal temps heading into met Spring, posters don't want to discuss it.

Btw, the pics you post of Bryce are adorable. I have a 3 yr old and a 2 yr old myself, and while playing in the snow with them is fun, it doesn't compare with running around in the backyard with them kicking a ball or taking rides on the lawn mower. It gets better every single year.

Thanks or the kind words. It's great being a Dad.

Well patterns that deliver snow are usually exciting so yes it will obviously get attention. I think all mets agree with this whether you like snow or not. Sunny and 45 just won't get attention. It's akin to 80 and sunny in July. Nothing exciting.

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I guess my point is this. Yes it does get mild with snowmelt and first flowers popping out f the ground....but for whatever reason there are some that forget the latitude they live on. March is a volatile month with many ups and downs but to hope for winter to end and rush in Spring in southern new england is going to be in for disappointment. This Spring on first look does not

Look nice.

We agree, but it also doesn't look nice for deep winter and snow pack. March is the month of transition in CT. I acknowledge that in some places in NE, that month is April.

There is a point where days in the 50s go from being a torch to being a bonus.

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In my mind winter thoughts dry up around March 21st with always the thought of an April surprise around the corner. Last March was a winter month.

Maybe I am jaded from the last decade of Marches. But Morch had become the rule rather than the exception so when models show 50s in late Feb I think Spring is a few days early.
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Maybe I am jaded from the last decade of Marches. But Morch had become the rule rather than the exception so when models show 50s in late Feb I think Spring is a few days early.

50s in feb happens often. You forget the March and April's we have had in the 2000s. They were so cold and snowy that we were bound to have a few warm march months. March certainly wasn't spring like last year. This year at first glance looks rather cool to start.

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Morch isn't a myth with respect to the fact that any snow you get will be gone within a week at the very most. So with that in mind, I am fine with above average weather sprinkled in with some chances for snow, which I love as much as the next weenie. That's my only point.

And yeah, yay for elevation events when Kevin 20 miles due north of me is getting 3" of snow while I'm getting cold rain at 500', lol.

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I went wire to wire with snowpack in March last year...probably where you live matters too on perspective of the month. Low elevation in southern CT is a lot different than even where Ray is just NW of BOS...and cerntainly in elevated interior MA.

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Morch isn't a myth with respect to the fact that any snow you get will be gone within a week at the very most. So with that in mind, I am fine with above average weather sprinkled in with some chances for snow, which I love as much as the next weenie. That's my only point.

And yeah, yay for elevation events when Kevin 20 miles due north of me is getting 3" of snow while I'm getting cold rain at 500', lol.

Boston, arguably New England's capital had an event that brought 18 inches to the metro area 3/8 and 10 inches 3/22. This was 2013. How about the 40 inches in 1993? How about the brutal cold in 2007? How about good snows in 1994/6/7/2001/3/4/5?

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I wonder if Ginx will finally give in and admit we have a week of torch and 50's coming up after the 20th

I mean when he asks Brian for euro ens 2 m temps for days 10+ to deny widespread 50's...its really something that is telling for a guy w ginxy's knowledge. Denial. We ALL know 2m ens means wont show anomalous warmth

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Why are we discussing March in the February pattern discussion thread? lol Enjoy what you have when you have it and everything will be fine. I don't mind the warm up but I hope it's transitional and temps return to seasonal levels after that.

The warm up is at the end of Feb and seasonal after that starts to become transitional in itself, for a chunk of SNE anyway. I can get snow in March, got plenty as Jerry said last year. It just becomes much more difficult to hold onto it. Most (not all but most) years in my neck of the woods, a torch at the end of February means the end of deep winter, with respect general climate. Same for all the southern CT counties, NYC, and I would imagine for most of RI and SE Mass.
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Boston, arguably New England's capital had an event that brought 18 inches to the metro area 3/8 and 10 inches 3/22. This was 2013. How about the 40 inches in 1993? How about the brutal cold in 2007? How about good snows in 1994/6/7/2001/3/4/5?

Yeah but Jerry March snow melts, lol awesome post.
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I mean when he asks Brian for euro ens 2 m temps for days 10+ to deny widespread 50's...its really something that is telling for a guy w ginxy's knowledge. Denial. We ALL know 2m ens means wont show anomalous warmth

I forecasted a thaw, don't know what your issue is, how's that ten days of boring working out? You never answered me.
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