TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'll pretty much be sick to my stomach for the duration of the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 See all ens Not showing anyone near 60, link to 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Not showing anyone near 60, link to 60?The pattern depicted supports it. It's a nasty PAC flow with big warmth coming in from chinook plains. Canada scoured of cold. Meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 See all ens This one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Maybe this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The pattern depicted supports it. It's a nasty PAC flow with big warmth coming in from chinook plains. Canada scoured of cold. Meteorology Looks hideous, i dont have much faith blocking will save us in a year w zero Greenland blocking. Maybe we will get lucky. I consider this winter a win to be so cold ytd and have above ave snowfall ytd with a putrid atlantic from gate to gate. There is a real shot this fairytale is coming to an end for more than a week. I hope models bring -EPO back for march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Steve's the last hold out...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm afraid the snowstorm on Wed might be about it . Hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The pattern depicted supports it. It's a nasty PAC flow with big warmth coming in from chinook plains. Canada scoured of cold. Meteorology Based on? models or gut, can"t have both, either the models signal it or not. meteorology is based on Science. You said all Ens, I posted the two Ens I have access to for the 20th-26th which shows no 60s anywhere near us, so how do you arrive at your conclusions,. So you are saying no troughs at all in the US straight Pac flow, interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Steve's the last hold out...lol. No Jerry this is where you are very wrong. I did say I expect a thaw. you agreed with me 50's and 60's for a week were not in the cards. now if he had said mid 40's I would agree, fYI climo high is 41 in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Based on? models or gut, can"t have both, either the models signal it or not. meteorology is based on Science. You said all Ens, I posted the two Ens I have access to for the 20th-26th which shows no 60s anywhere near us, so how do you arrive at your conclusions,. So you are saying no troughs at all in the US straight Pac flow, interesting. Euro ensemble mean drives the mid day 2m freezing line north of the Canadian border at the peak of the torch. Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 No Jerry this is where you are very wrong. I did say I expect a thaw. you agreed with me 50's and 60's for a week were not in the cards. now if he had said mid 40's I would agree, fYI climo high is 41 in that period. I think we risk a few days of x50s. Doubt 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro ensemble mean drives the mid day 2m freezing line north of the Canadian border at the peak of the torch. Nuff said. wait now, a week of 50's and 60's is what he said,. I think myself what happens is 3-4 days possibly above normal then PNA rise and back to western Ridge Eastern trough. No way in hell are we seeing a wekk of 50's and 60's. Kevin just cancelled winter after Wednesday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Does everyone comprehend that a ens mean will very rarely if ever be accurate wrt anomalies of high temps. It is a smoothed out mean that moderates warm and cold extremes. If it hints at cold you look at source region and previous cold outbreaks wrt time of year and sometimes the op run will give u better 850 idea (since it doesn't smooth out anomalies) and ditto warmth. Certainly not ens mean 2m temps 10+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Does everyone comprehend that a ens mean will very rarely if ever be accurate wrt anomalies of high temps. It is a smoothed out mean that moderates warm and cold extremes. If it hints at cold you look at source region and previous cold outbreaks wrt time of year and sometimes the op run will give u better 850 idea (since it doesn't smooth out anomalies) and ditto warmth. Certainly not ens mean 2m temps 10+ days out. weeks of 50's and 60's incoming, winter cancel, next ten days boring! and you pontificate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Does everyone comprehend that a ens mean will very rarely if ever be accurate wrt anomalies of high temps. It is a smoothed out mean that moderates warm and cold extremes. If it hints at cold you look at source region and previous cold outbreaks wrt time of year and sometimes the op run will give u better 850 idea (since it doesn't smooth out anomalies) and ditto warmth. Certainly not ens mean 2m temps 10+ days out. We get it but I've watched the trend, thickness, h85 and h5 and it's a torch signal to me. I've been watching these things for many decades so typically I ok at spotting a sustainable trend and I think we have one here for at least a few days of well above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We get it but I've watched the trend, thickness, h85 and h5 and it's a torch signal to me. I've been watching these things for many decades so typically I ok at spotting a sustainable trend and I think we have one here for at least a few days of well above normal temps. concur, well said but seeing as its past ten days and models are struggling its not a certainty, even two days ago it was opposite. probably shakes out as a thaw period, usually happens every month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 WTF you guys? LOL. We are far out here and I was speaking what the EC showed. GEFS are quick to try and build ridging over the EPAC while the EC is zonal flow with what looked like some rebuild at the end. it's possible the EC is too bullish. My gut says the thaw is real, but I'm not sure on the strength an duration as the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 WTF you guys? LOL. We are far out here and I was speaking what the EC showed. GEFS are quick to try and build ridging over the EPAC while the EC is zonal flow with what looked like some rebuild at the end. it's possible the EC is too bullish. My gut says the thaw is real, but I'm not sure on the strength an duration as the euro shows. Just passing time, happy hour incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro ensembles are putrid centered around Feb 20-21. That's a big thaw...you don't want to look at 850 temps verbatim at this time range, you look at the pattern. Its like when they show a great -EPO pattern for arctic outbreaks but the ensemble mean at 288 hours is like -10 or -11C at 850...but we know in reality that pattern can support -18 or -20C 850 temps. Likewise this time, the ensemble mean shows like +1 or +2 at 850mb for a time, but we know it can support like +8 with that zonal firehose from the PAC..and the AK death vortex. We'll hope its a bit too bullish on that and it backs off...but for today, there's no question it shows an ugly ugly pattern for a time. No -NAO to save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We get it but I've watched the trend, thickness, h85 and h5 and it's a torch signal to me. I've been watching these things for many decades so typically I ok at spotting a sustainable trend and I think we have one here for at least a few days of well above normal temps. Jerry im not sure you follow what i said, i think we TORCH for a few days, We all know that pattern supports highs above normal and like will said ...what will +8c 850's look like under sunshine in late feb....torchalicious. Some like to imagine they cant see that angle and that they have temporary memory loss due to warmth. Lets just hope the coming torch is brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well hopefully we can reload after whatever thaw happens. I started feeling like we could make a decent run last week when models had a weak -NAO, but that disappeared the other day. Hopefully we can minimize the thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Sometimes I wonder about that happy hour gfs, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro ensembles are putrid centered around Feb 20-21. That's a big thaw...you don't want to look at 850 temps verbatim at this time range, you look at the pattern. Its like when they show a great -EPO pattern for arctic outbreaks but the ensemble mean at 288 hours is like -10 or -11C at 850...but we know in reality that pattern can support -18 or -20C 850 temps. Likewise this time, the ensemble mean shows like +1 or +2 at 850mb for a time, but we know it can support like +8 with that zonal firehose from the PAC..and the AK death vortex. We'll hope its a bit too bullish on that and it backs off...but for today, there's no question it shows an ugly ugly pattern for a time. No -NAO to save us. Its a couple days near 60 and would obliterate the pack without question. Hopefully it doesn't work out that way but verbatim it's a couple days of +20 or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well hopefully we can reload after whatever thaw happens. I started feeling like we could make a decent run last week when models had a weak -NAO, but that disappeared the other day. Hopefully we can minimize the thaw Decent "last run" is the key phrase. Best not to look too far ahead in February if you are hoping for endless winter weather in SNE. Sure, March can bring snow, but lovers of brutal cold and feet of snow pack should enjoy it while they have it. If we are going to lose it come March 1st, bring on Spring. I might feel differently in E Mass, your Springs are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Decent "last run" is the key phrase. Best not to look too far ahead in February if you are hoping for endless winter weather in SNE. Sure, March can bring snow, but lovers of brutal cold and feet of snow pack should enjoy it while they have it. If we are going to lose it come March 1st, bring on Spring. I might feel differently in E Mass, your Springs are terrible. I said decent run meaning a wintry stretch. I also mentioned that it was NAO dependent as the thaw potential was real. If its a few day thaw and then a reload, I won't complain. It appears we will reload heading into March on a lot of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Decent "last run" is the key phrase. Best not to look too far ahead in February if you are hoping for endless winter weather in SNE. Sure, March can bring snow, but lovers of brutal cold and feet of snow pack should enjoy it while they have it. If we are going to lose it come March 1st, bring on Spring. I might feel differently in E Mass, your Springs are terrible. Are you hoping for continued +NAO, as I am? F' March, salvage the Spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not trying to call you out Scooter, I just think that at some point, "thaw" becomes "transition." March can be a snowy month, but those looking to avoid a "torch" with respect to 0°C and snow pack will always end up disappointed. Spring is coming, so might as well look forward to it instead of cringing at any sign of it. The days of deep winter are coming to an end, and the models will inevitably show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not trying to call you out Scooter, I just think that at some point, "thaw" becomes "transition." March can be a snowy month, but those looking to avoid a "torch" with respect to 0°C and snow pack will always end up disappointed. Spring is coming, so might as well look forward to it instead of cringing at any sign of it. The days of deep winter are coming to an end, and the models will inevitably show it. I don't think I ever said we are avoiding the natural climo ramp up. Thaw, torch...whatever you want to call it....it is a reference to above normal temps. We live in SNE with many of us averaging double digit amounts of snow during March. What the models are showing have zero.....none to do with so called Spring. It's a product of a feature in the gulf of Alaska, not climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't think I ever said we are avoiding the natural climo ramp up. Thaw, torch...whatever you want to call it....it is a reference to above normal temps. We live in SNE with many of us averaging double digit amounts of snow during March. What the models are showing have zero.....none to do with so called Spring. It's a product of a feature in the gulf of Alaska, not climo. So called Spring? I'm pretty sure it's a generally accepted term. In my 27 winters in SNE, 26 of them have shown undeniable signs of ending by March at the latest, so I'm guessing it will be 27 of 27 in 2014. But seriously I'm not trying to pick a fight, and I'm not saying anything other than that even among mets in the NE subforum, and that means all not just some, the models are interpreted with a bias towards wanting cold and snowy, even when talking about March, which is typically more of a transitional month than it is either a winter month or a spring month. A model that shows zero snow is great for a golfer like me, as long as it's not freezing cold. Chances are that in March, it won't be that cold. So I feel differently about it than I do in January. That being said, I'm all for rooting on the several minor to moderate threats in the next week or two. But after that... I'm ok if it doesn't reload. If it does, it will be short lived with respect to winter climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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