ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 No i saw all those..I guess I was just thinking a thaw didn't mean a torch. I kind of take a thaw to mean normal.Or just not below normal anyway. Oh well...we had a decent run The warmer analog patterns I gave like Feb 15-20, 1994 and early Feb 1999 were torches. They weren't permanent, but they were warm. Look them up yourself. I tend to view these description as a torch: A lot will depend on if a -NAO develops and if it is strong enough to affect the SE Canada height field. We also don't know just exactly how the GOA/PNA region height field will develop. If we get a 2007/1969/1956 type pattern, then we would probably not warm up much at all...howeve,r if the NAO doesn't really help or the PAC side overwhelms it, then we could see a significant thaw much like that occurred in the Feb 15-20, 1994 period as well as the first half of February 1999. Yeah should be quite solid through mid month...after that we could have a big thaw though if the NAO doesn't offset a deeper GOA trough. Still a lot of time to figure out those details though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Kevin, I don't see at all what you are talking about in reference to Don. You gotta be careful on how you interpret posts. And also, when do we not have periods where we warm? We live at 42N...we are naturally prone to mild spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 And in reference to Will's post about the NAO..this is absolutely vital. The models trended a bit weaker and as a result, the Pacific floods the country. That ridging near the Davis Straits is acting like a lid. Lift that lid and here comes the Pacific. Also, the EC is probably too weak with the ridging over the SW US. I expect that to come back again.It's been doing that for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 And in reference to Will's post about the NAO..this is absolutely vital. The models trended a bit weaker and as a result, the Pacific floods the country. That ridging near the Davis Straits is acting like a lid. Lift that lid and here comes the Pacific. Also, the EC is probably too weak with the ridging over the SW US. I expect that to come back again.It's been doing that for a while. Yeah this pattern is very uncertain....I recall model guidance doing this in Feb 2007...after the initial 2 week brutal cold spell. They kept trying to break down the pattern flood us with mild air only to have the -NAO hold it in and overdoing the PAC intrusion in general. That doesn't mean the same thing happens this time, but it is an example of how this pattern can evolve. We could also uncork the torch for a week...we just can't be confident at all right now in either evolution. We'll just have to sit back and wait until we are closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well we lived by the Pacific all year, I'm not gonna bet on a significant -NAO now. I linked a disco from Bill Nichols that says the west is in for a 180 wrt precipitation as a major and prolonged pattern change is instore for them and the plains (above ave) . He said that in the 35 years hes been doing weather, this is one of the more pronounced changes wrt teleconnectors in the pacific that he has seen. He says it will likely last several weeks/months . I posted asking what that would mean for us....i wanted to know if that would teleconnector to a trough and i figured it would make us dependent on -NAO. I think we may get a more prolonged period of normal to above temps not highly anonamous, perhaps we get bouts of transient davis strait ridging, but what is the storm track w an active pacific and shortening wave lengths if this Nichols guy is right -dependent on blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A thaw of some sorts is coming by months end, magnitude not known but very active weather. will say this positive PNA with a hint of -NAO and it could be very very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The AO dropping into negative territory looks interesting too. euro weeklies look like fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The AO dropping into negative territory looks interesting too. euro weeklies look like fun So long as polar vortex (havent been paying attention) to it has some residence on our side of the pole im cool w that. We have seen a -AO chill Europe out while we torch w GOA trough and polar vort on other side of globe so we just need that vortex on our side and some ridging somewhere like scooter and will alluded to and i think we have fun off and on . Otherwise ....i think we can get ready for some rain, SOS watch even in a cpl weeks ...i wish some thing offered up more hope of real blocking potential. Perhaps the is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Even tho the Euro ensembles may say this ... or the teleconnectors suggest that ...or the modeled construct overall connotes whatever, one aspect that leaped out at me re the overnight runs into this morning is that in every operational model that exists, the cold thickness is tending to ease over the south-continent from S to N. Perhaps that is just a coincidence that results toward an homage; perhaps it is some early detection re the inevitability of seasonal change. Feb is a spring month in TX- Gulf states, so I suppose that makes sense. There is still sub, -25C at 850mb, pooled and lurking (in intervals) just over the border in Canada, so this sets up an interesting thermal gradient over the larger scope of space. (GGEM actually alleviates cold even up there, but ... heh, not a fan of that model for anything remotely extended) February is the antithesis to August, but both months have an aspect in common. They represent the very, very beginning of change (as in circa day 1). In the spring, we tend to see these warm-ups in the south, and in August, firstly find cold thickness plumes in N Canada. Whether spring or autumn, when I see those changes entering the model outlooks, I begin to ruminate about the changing of the guard, visualizing the aspects of summer and winter, respectively, that I appreciate and embrace. I miss the smell of higher DPs .. even the smell of rain before a summer thunderstorm. I miss towering, cryspy TCU, and geeking out in a grassy lea with my video camera shooting cloud videography (so that I can later speed of the frame rate and drool). I miss multi-pulse CG with cacophontic sound of house jolting thunder, wall clouds, hail, and the prospect for tropical weather events, even heat waves, all of it is missed. I miss the smell of lilacs, and noticing the growth of the veggies in my garden. I certainly do not miss BD season and the theft of Aprils when that occurs. Spring in New England is my escape choice. I figure when I can afford it one day, I will not live in this part of the country from approximately April 1 until about May 10, temporally flexible at either end, based upon acknowledgment of season tempos... Obviously, those changes do not occur on a dime, taking weeks of growing pains; hopefully for the drama-seekers, having stormy consequence > 0. It is one reason some of the more fantastic storms in history take place in February and March; because that seasonal change tries to punch into the deep S, while there could be antecedent cold still lurking in relative close proximity. I am interested in this next 30 to 45 days, as there are signs the AO falls to, and exceeds 0 SD, taking the index negative in many GEFs members spanning nearly 20 days. Given to the seasonal tempo of prolific cold above 40 N, the insert of seasonal dynamic in the south, brings an "air" of of perhaps higher than normal volatility/storm vulnerability in the means. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm with you John and thankfully will be abroad 4/5-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm with you John and thankfully will be abroad 4/5-19. So lucky, Jer' ... I mean, if you took all the butt-bang patterns of BD lore, and plotted them on a temporal graph, I bet the lion's share of them fall just about right smack between those two days. I mean, much before that it's tough to accuse a BD for cold, when ... heh, winter in NE doesn't really end in my book until March 30th. BD's that happen after April 20th start to sting less, though they still suck the souls out of angels to some degree. Having opined ... I actually kind of reverse thinking on BD phenomenon as June ages, because I have seen some really interesting weather events take place with BDs when they wedge under higher DPs. But mid April? egh, go f itself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z EC ensembles furnace us again after about D12. Frisbees and hackysacks and huge boomboxes in the driveway while washing the pickup. It does look like it might be trying to reload the pattern at the very end though. Still a ton of uncertainty out in this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Awesome That's a toaster bath for the mountains in California. Imagine if Powderfreak worked there? Looks fine going forward. Nice wintry appeal. We're going to have shots whether they work out or not? Hopefully March can muster some bigger meaner storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That's a toaster bath for the mountains in California. Imagine if Powderfreak worked there? Looks fine going forward. Nice wintry appeal. We're going to have shots whether they work out or not? Hopefully March can muster some bigger meaner storms. Things are looking way up and with the Pineapple express incoming they will get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well up until last night I thought there would be snow chance for sure. That was a big change in 24 hrs. Will see if It persists, the EC did this last week but now the GEFS sort of caved in that direction too. It's really close to something a lot better....if we just had a bit better of a -NAO it would help tremendously. It did look like it may try to reload again so if it's a several day break...so be it. We should let things roll out for a few days...not a good idea for knew jerk reactions. It does appear latitude will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 accu weather all over possible pattern change .....must be a sure thing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well up until last night I thought there would be snow chance for sure. That was a big change in 24 hrs. Will see if It persists, the EC did this last week but now the GEFS sort of caved in that direction too. It's really close to something a lot better....if we just had a bit better of a -NAO it would help tremendously. It did look like it may try to reload again so if it's a several day break...so be it. We should let things roll out for a few days...not a good idea for knew jerk reactions. It does appear latitude will help. I think there still could be. Not speaking to the Euro ensemble or the weeklies or whatever, but just the operational run has marginal conditions, which at this time of year is actually money for good dynamics. The system next week made inside of D7 for a change, and has a blue snow look about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Very Glad that i'm over my seasonal average but this winter still feels like it didn't live up to it's potential. All that cold and no block to be found. Damn shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Very Glad that i'm over my seasonal average but this winter still feels like it didn't live up to it's potential. All that cold and no block to be found. Damn shame. There was a block... the -EPO; that's why there was so much cold around. Blocking isn't the whole story, tho, if by that you mean the NAO. True that it helps to oscillated the index negative and positive, back and forth, because that means the atmosphere is in constant flux between trying to warm up and cool down -- the inflection points of course being storms. But, the PNA didn't help us either. There has not really been a very timely procession of waves in the atmosphere... We've seen one giant wave interference pattern in the means, which is what a "gradient" look to the flow really means, and what S/W have been there capable of overcoming, have interfered at that scale, too. It's been a great winter for interference, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks pretty clear that we have at least a few days well above normal sometime after pd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks pretty clear that we have at least a few days well above normal sometime after pd. Yeah, I was hoping the thaw could at least be held at bay, but the EC ensembles are disgusting. A few days ago I thought we would have some storm chances and we will. Of course tomorrow looked good at the time..but we'll have to watch later this week and then again maybe near day 9 before the Pacific opens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Seems like there's like an ugly week of 50's and 60's . Sickening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Seems like there's like an ugly week of 50's and 60's . Sickening Won't be an entire week and I doubt 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Seems like there's like an ugly week of 50's and 60's . Sickening Dates of 50's and 60's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Dates of 50's and 60's? Above normal beyond PDay say 2/16-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Won't be an entire week and I doubt 60s. I dont see a day for the next ten near 50, 60 is just laughable 12 Z Euro Ens max 850's approach 0 at day ten at 12Z that is, unless there is a very quick in between 24 hour rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Dates of 50's and 60's?20-26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 20-26 link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 link?See all ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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