RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ensembles continue to show weak -NAO ridging with height rises over the west coast and a GOA trough. This teleconnects to troughing over the east. At this point, ptype is tough to determine, but a potential stormy pattern looks to be in the cards. Intriguing to me. DT fail for calling feb 10-20 mild with no storms? Must of been riding euro ens slutty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 DT fail for calling feb 10-20 mild with no storms? Must of been riding euro ens slutty hard. All the energy traders who have been dry humping the euro ensembles are probably too warm. You could see this last week. EC ensembles nailed to cold at the end of January but have been too GOA and west coast trough happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ensembles continue to show weak -NAO ridging with height rises over the west coast and a GOA trough. This teleconnects to troughing over the east. At this point, ptype is tough to determine, but a potential stormy pattern looks to be in the cards. Intriguing to me. Pretty mixed analogs in the pattern...some analogs had major snow events such as mid/late Feb 1972, early Feb 1969 (Lindsday Storm), and 1956. Others were duds like early Feb 1999 and late Feb 1974. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I guess all of the mets have to take a back seat to Ryan, now that he's been on the lead story of NBC Nightly News! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 All the energy traders who have been dry humping the euro ensembles are probably too warm. You could see this last week. EC ensembles nailed to cold at the end of January but have been too GOA and west coast trough happy. Euro ens been trying to warm all year havent they? I wonder if they struggle with -epo winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm feeling stormy as we move thru the rest of the month. I'll stand by no KU's..just solid advisory to low end warning deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I guess all of the mets have to take a back seat to Ryan, now that he's been on the lead story of NBC Nightly News!missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I guess all of the mets have to take a back seat to Ryan, now that he's been on the lead story of NBC Nightly News!mark my words, he'll be chief met on CNN or The Today show someday in the not too distant future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I guess all of the mets have to take a back seat to Ryan, now that he's been on the lead story of NBC Nightly News! lol. Really? When was this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 lol. Really? When was this? I didn't see it but it was a small snippet I think in a bigger story about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Pretty mixed analogs in the pattern...some analogs had major snow events such as mid/late Feb 1972, early Feb 1969 (Lindsday Storm), and 1956. Others were duds like early Feb 1999 and late Feb 1974. It's not tough to see how it could be a dud. Lower heights out west and less blocking out by the Davis Straits would shoot storms over or west of us. Its not perfect, but it is an interesting look. Maybe it's just a mix of warm and cold deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro ens been trying to warm all year havent they? I wonder if they struggle with -epo winters. No see my earlier post. They nailed the late Jan cold and also the earlier torch. Bit at times they seemed a little too retrogressive and therefore lowering heights out west with a zonal torch flow. A good friend of mine is an energy met and he was thinking the euro was too mild last week. Noted these biases and how persistence has been paying off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 No see my earlier post. They nailed the late Jan cold and also the earlier torch. Bit at times they seemed a little too retrogressive and therefore lowering heights out west with a zonal torch flow. A good friend of mine is an energy met and he was thinking the euro was too mild last week. Noted these biases and how persistence has been paying off. Makes it difficult for you guys in the mid to long range then...cant just go with the hot hand. But lately, it seems like going with whatever tosses EC troughiness is best lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Makes it difficult for you guys in the mid to long range then...cant just go with the hot hand. But lately, it seems like going with whatever tosses EC troughiness is best lol. Most of the time that GOA trough would flood us with Pacific air. It still could happen as numerous disturbances fly into the Pacific NW. However what is different is the ridging up by the Davis straits which will help deflect the jet and force it south along with a few storm systems. It is way too early to speculate if they are wet or white, but there will be a few. I think it just looks like an overall changeable pattern, but one that might avg below normal when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Today's GEFS look decent all the way into the latter part of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Will, check out the euro ensembles. Not a bad look. Look what even just a weak ridge in the Davis Straits can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Today's GEFS look decent all the way into the latter part of February. so do euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Will, check out the euro ensembles. Not a bad look. Look what even just a weak ridge in the Davis Straits can do. Yep, I was just going to post it. This is more like the colder list of analogs I listed...Feb '72, Feb '69, and even late Feb '67. Hopefully they have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 LOL, euro trying to cancel February again. We'll have to see if it backs off like it did last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 matt noyes had it warming up late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 matt noyes had it warming up late next week Depends on storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 LOL, euro trying to cancel February again. We'll have to see if it backs off like it did last week. After having probably its coldest ensemble run of the past week at 12z yesterday....shows how much the guidance is struggling with the progression of this pattern beyond D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 After having probably its coldest ensemble run of the past week at 12z yesterday....shows how much the guidance is struggling with the progression of this pattern beyond D10. Yeah agreed. I think it's a little aggressive as the other guidance isn't like that..but I do think it's a changeable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Don S torches last week of Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Don S torches last week of Feb Very possible. About half the analog guidance morphs the pattern into a torch beyond D15. But it wouldn't be a shock...we've been discussing that as a viable option for a long time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Very possible. About half the analog guidance morphs the pattern into a torch beyond D15. But it wouldn't be a shock...we've been discussing that as a viable option for a long time now. It would be a shock to me anyway. I didn't recall anyone saying the last 7-10 days of Feb would roast..Always seemed like in the northeast it might be no worse than normal. We'd better enjoy the next 7-10 days then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It would be a shock to me anyway. I didn't recall anyone saying the last 7-10 days of Feb would roast..Always seemed like in the northeast it might be no worse than normal. We'd better enjoy the next 7-10 days then Because nobody has any models that say we do or don't. The weeklies don't look warm for us, but they are toasty down south. Again, I think it's a pattern that has some decent storminess, but also changeable. This started last week...we had our SWFE, the Sunday night deal which crapped the bed...but it was modeled, later next week..and then maybe something a few days after. I'm not going to worry about voodoo long range forecasting at the moment. I don't see a prolific extended torch signal. Key word...extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It would be a shock to me anyway. I didn't recall anyone saying the last 7-10 days of Feb would roast..Always seemed like in the northeast it might be no worse than normal. We'd better enjoy the next 7-10 days then Well that is because I think you tend to ignore posts like these...or maybe just don't read them: A lot will depend on if a -NAO develops and if it is strong enough to affect the SE Canada height field. We also don't know just exactly how the GOA/PNA region height field will develop. If we get a 2007/1969/1956 type pattern, then we would probably not warm up much at all...howeve,r if the NAO doesn't really help or the PAC side overwhelms it, then we could see a significant thaw much like that occurred in the Feb 15-20, 1994 period as well as the first half of February 1999. Yeah should be quite solid through mid month...after that we could have a big thaw though if the NAO doesn't offset a deeper GOA trough. Still a lot of time to figure out those details though. They all show a hint of a -NAO...but it needs to be strong enough to offset the GOA trough if that becomes too strong. Hard to say if that happens yet. Were talking like 2+ weeks out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Models are ever do slightly trying to force some ridging up west of the Davis Straits. It's not strong, but you can see its effects in trying to force cyclogenesis near the Eaat Coast instead of all lake cutters. Definitely some potential for a thaw, but it's an active look I think. And also posts like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 No i saw all those..I guess I was just thinking a thaw didn't mean a torch. I kind of take a thaw to mean normal.Or just not below normal anyway. Oh well...we had a decent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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