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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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Closer to our area, ORH had a top 15 coldest winter as recently as 2002-2003...1993-1994 was a top ten coldest. 1917-1918 was the coldest on record....1976-1977 and 1903-1904 are tied for 2nd coldest and then 1969-1970 is 4th. 1993-1994 was 8th coldest.

 

 

We won't get anything close to top 15 this year. Though probably top 30.

You have some good years on here. Yeah this winter isn't even close. Never got that deep persistence of the cold. Loved 2002/2003. In January that yr I worked in Boston and the amount of ice on the harbor was impressive. 1993/1994 was a good one.That very cold Thanksgiving day in the low 20s in Nov 1993, very cold storm in late Dec. The record cold in Jan 1994.

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You have some good years on here. Yeah this winter isn't even close. Never got that deep persistence of the cold. Loved 2002/2003. In January that yr I worked in Boston and the amount of ice on the harbor was impressive. 1993/1994 was a good one.That very cold Thanksgiving day in the low 20s in Nov 1993, very cold storm in late Dec. The record cold in Jan 1994.

 

 

The snow recently has been unparelleled though...so despite not as cold as years past, its been much snowier. I'll take that over the cold.

 

The best year for sea ice in SNE was 2003-2004...even though that winter didn;t rank high for cold overall due to the other two months. The January cold that year was so intense that it produced sea ice out to Nantucket and basically all of Nanutcket sound and Cape Cod Bay was frozen at some point....or very close. The cold was about 25-30 days long, but it was so extreme at the coldest time of climo winter, that it did the trick.

 

January 2004 is the coldest month on record at Boston....only 1875 was technically colder but that was not at Logan airport and was 0.6F colder, so it is probable that it would not have matched Logan's 2004 if it was at the same site.

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The snow recently has been unparelleled though...so despite not as cold as years past, its been much snowier. I'll take that over the cold.

 

The best year for sea ice in SNE was 2003-2004...even though that winter didn;t rank high for cold overall due to the other two months. The January cold that year was so intense that it produced sea ice out to Nantucket and basically all of Nanutcket sound and Cape Cod Bay was frozen at some point....or very close. The cold was about 25-30 days long, but it was so extreme at the coldest time of climo winter, that it did the trick.

 

January 2004 is the coldest month on record at Boston....only 1875 was technically colder but that was not at Logan airport and was 0.6F colder, so it is probable that it would not have matched Logan's 2004 if it was at the same site.

January 2004 was remarkable. I drove down to West Dennis at the end of the month to take pictures of Chapin Beach on the bay side. It looked like an arctic land out there. Yes that month was amazing. The sea ice in Nantucket sound was beautiful. What a sight! The low temps which broke records while having high NW winds. I will never forget it. I thought Dec 89 was good. Jan 1994 etc but Jan 2004...really was epic.

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January 2004 was remarkable. I drove down to West Dennis at the end of the month to take pictures of Chapin Beach on the bay side. It looked like an arctic land out there. Yes that month was amazing. The sea ice in Nantucket sound was beautiful. What a sight! The low temps which broke records while having high NW winds. I will never forget it. I thought Dec 89 was good. Jan 1994 etc but Jan 2004...really was epic.

 

 

My grandparents live in Yarmouth, and they have neighbors who are older than Ginxy's dead sea scrolls...and they said they had never seen anything like it since living there in the 1930s as kids when I talked to them several years ago about the sea ice that month. They said a couple years came close the '60s and '70s but not the extent that Jan 2004 was. (they were prob remembering Jan 1977 and 1970)

 

 

They also had recalled how warm the late 40s and early 50s were. Though not in exact terms like I say it...they said it more like "those years around 1950 were so warm". Which is funny since it matches the SST records of remarkable warmth in the waters around New England during that time.

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My grandparents live in Yarmouth, and they have neighbors who are older than Ginxy's dead sea scrolls...and they said they had never seen anything like it since living there in the 1930s as kids when I talked to them several years ago about the sea ice that month. They said a couple years came close the '60s and '70s but not the extent that Jan 2004 was. (they were prob remembering Jan 1977 and 1970)

 

 

They also had recalled how warm the late 40s and early 50s were. Though not in exact terms like I say it...they said it more like "those years around 1950 were so warm". Which is funny since it matches the SST records of remarkable warmth in the waters around New England during that time.

ORH, That is a very great story.It is great to be able to sit down with relatives and travel back in time and get somewhat of an idea what it may have been like. Pretty remarkable that 2004 was holds its weight with this. My grandparents grew up in Framingham. Deceased for some time now but lived in the same area their entire lives. My grandfather always remarked on the winter of 1947 with its snow depth. 

 

I remember storms and dates fairly well. You seem to remember them very well. Always a pleasure to read your posts reflecting on a date, which I say modestly I usually do remember, and think back. For instance 20 years ago and one day.... Feb 20 of the 94 winter when it 64 in Ashland and on the 23rd we had 5 inches of new snow.. 

 

Liking the look of late Feb/Early March. Not the coldest or snowiest winter but a good one....

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Actually, upon reviewing most operational guidance and at least the GEFs mean, it appears the magnitude of cold has been dimmed a little. Which may not be saying much; it was so extreme up through yesterday's runs, pretty much regardless of model species that pulling back the throttle still results in significant negative departures. I am seeing a shortened stay, and slightly less 850mb anomaly penetration, though.

 

That may actually be a good thing for those that want it snowing all the time every day to a depth of 2 miles in a Global asphyxiating ice-age of obsessive madness ... because it was really providing too steep of a large scale gradient to allow cyclogenesis at relatively shorter spacial scales. 

 

Been over this, over the years, over and over and over and over again ... but when we get into these giant gyres with too many contours to count sitting over S Canada, it may look tasty but it's poison.  What we really need is a moderate gradient with intense localized impulse intensities.  But when the flow is stacked so steeply between cold continental heights N and warm S, the balanced flow is so fast everywhere that impulses get sheared -- technically, they don't really get sheared, more like 'disappear', absorbed into the fury of the flow.     

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Actually, upon reviewing most operational guidance and at least the GEFs mean, it appears the magnitude of cold has been dimmed a little. Which may not be saying much; it was so extreme up through yesterday's runs, pretty much regardless of model species that pulling back the throttle still results in significant negative departures. I am seeing a shortened stay, and slightly less 850mb anomaly penetration, though.

That may actually be a good thing for those that want it snowing all the time every day to a depth of 2 miles in a Global asphyxiating ice-age of obsessive madness ... because it was really providing too steep of a large scale gradient to allow cyclogenesis at relatively shorter spacial scales.

Been over this, over the years, over and over and over and over again ... but when we get into these giant gyres with too many contours to count sitting over S Canada, it may look tasty but it's poison. What we really need is a moderate gradient with intense localized impulse intensities. But when the flow is stacked so steeply between cold continental heights N and warm S, the balanced flow is so fast everywhere that impulses get sheared -- technically, they don't really get sheared, more like 'disappear', absorbed into the fury of the flow.

You summed up what I was thinking in a much more technical manner. Storms would have been to our south in the advertised pattern from a few days ago. Cold, but not extreme is kind of right where we want it.
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Actually, upon reviewing most operational guidance and at least the GEFs mean, it appears the magnitude of cold has been dimmed a little. Which may not be saying much; it was so extreme up through yesterday's runs, pretty much regardless of model species that pulling back the throttle still results in significant negative departures. I am seeing a shortened stay, and slightly less 850mb anomaly penetration, though.

That may actually be a good thing for those that want it snowing all the time every day to a depth of 2 miles in a Global asphyxiating ice-age of obsessive madness ... because it was really providing too steep of a large scale gradient to allow cyclogenesis at relatively shorter spacial scales.

Been over this, over the years, over and over and over and over again ... but when we get into these giant gyres with too many contours to count sitting over S Canada, it may look tasty but it's poison. What we really need is a moderate gradient with intense localized impulse intensities. But when the flow is stacked so steeply between cold continental heights N and warm S, the balanced flow is so fast everywhere that impulses get sheared -- technically, they don't really get sheared, more like 'disappear', absorbed into the fury of the flow.

Yes, that's the worry. Too much of a good thing (cold) leads to frustrating patterns like earlier in the winter haha. Fast flow with no chance to amplify, but at least it's -30F at 850 haha.

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Yes by magnitude ...that's probably not the best word to use, when I was really thinking about duration.   Does look like a -2SD type air mass for a couple of days, either way... It just appears that the guidance' want to role the SPV out a bit sooner on the overnight runs... 

 

This could be a good thing if you are looking for snow threats/winter storms.  Because there is a active Pacific jet coming in to the west coast up underneath the (at first) suppressive heights of the SPV.  But should the SPV relax, then the entry into it's stay (next Wed) might feature more potential for cyclogenesis on the EC.  Then as it roles out, there's potential later on too.  

 

But during its max, yeah, one word...              cold  

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GFS has a nice Wednesday snow event

 

 

Might have an appetizer on Tuesday too...kind of weird. Models are def having trouble with the little impulses in the flow.

 

 

The Wed system though has been semi-consistent in showing up on all guidance.

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Might have an appetizer on Tuesday too...kind of weird. Models are def having trouble with the little impulses in the flow.

 

 

The Wed system though has been semi-consistent in showing up on all guidance.

 

Yeah that would be nice. I'd like to see less of an inv trough appeal and more of a concentric low on the GFS. The 12z run took a step that way.

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