CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 00z guidance continues to have some fluctuations in the dailies, but the overall height patterns are fairly similar with some notable technical differences. All models have three main features. Ridging near the dateline or just of it near Kamchatka. GOA trough and then troughing somewhere in the midwest or east. The GFS continues to be a little stronger and further east with dateline ridging as well as the Canadian. EC dramatically weakens the ridging and maintains a healthy NE GOA trough which then teleconnects to a trough over the midwest. The big cold would be shut off as well. The GEFS has caved some to the EC over the last week, but the EC has slowly backed off the zonal flow over the entire CONUS as well. A GOA trough oriented more N-S with its trough axis (like the GEFS have) would help teleconnect to a trough in the east, while the EC GOA trough orientation allows for a stronger PAC jet to push into the CONUS. GFS and GGEM are similar in keeping a little more troughing in the east with some weak SW US ridging...sort of a -WPO. The bottom like is that the arctic may be shut off regarding cold, but it does continue to look stormy with another threat maybe day 12. Storm track and ptype are going to be dependent on the Pacific pattern and also how much if any ridging occurs by Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sounds like pfreak may finally get the pattern he wants .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sounds like pfreak may finally get the pattern he wants .. We will believe when we see it. What was looking like a NNE pattern the first half of February is turning into a northern Mid Atlantic and SNE pattern again, lol. I think it'll be real interesting to see where we stand on like February 15th for the first half of the month. Certainly aren't making up any ground on climo snowfall, that's for sure. The Feb 9-10 storm looks to be key, we will need to get a good shellacking in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We will believe when we see it. What was looking like a NNE pattern the first half of February is turning into a northern Mid Atlantic and SNE pattern again, lol. I think it'll be real interesting to see where we stand on like February 15th for the first half of the month. Certainly aren't making up any ground on climo snowfall, that's for sure. The Feb 9-10 storm looks to be key, we will need to get a good shellacking in that one. You are getting snow tomorrow and probably this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You are getting snow tomorrow and probably this weekend. Who said we weren't? Lets just see where we stand relative to climo on February 15th, that's all I was saying. No one has said anything about shut-outs...but do you think we'll be above climo snowfall for the first two weeks of February? Care to put some numbers down for goalposts relative to our climate normals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Who said we weren't? Lets just see where we stand relative to climo on February 15th, that's all I was saying. No one has said anything about shut-outs...but do you think we'll be above climo snowfall for the first two weeks of February? Care to put some numbers down for goalposts relative to our climate normals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Who said we weren't? Lets just see where we stand relative to climo on February 15th, that's all I was saying. No one has said anything about shut-outs...but do you think we'll be above climo snowfall for the first two weeks of February? Care to put some numbers down for goalposts relative to our climate normals? Well how much did the mtn have the other day...2/1? I don't know the climo for snow amounts there. I think what most said is that it would be turning more favorable for NNE and it will. I don't recall us saying it will be NNE dominant, although deep down I do favor you guys in Feb (2nd half)...esp if we get milder here. We have a long ways to go before the month ends and I stand by that statement. You may not be able to make up lost ground from Jan...but I think it should be a good month for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well how much did the mtn have the other day...2/1? I don't know the climo for snow amounts there. I think what most said is that it would be turning more favorable for NNE and it will. I don't recall us saying it will be NNE dominant, although deep down I do favor you guys in Feb (2nd half)...esp if we get milder here. We have a long ways to go before the month ends and I stand by that statement. You may not be able to make up lost ground from Jan...but I think it should be a good month for you. That's a fair statement... it is going from nothing to something. Just a brief 5-year average leads to 78" this month up here, with the 15-year being closer to 70". I look at it as the Co-Op averages like 1.7" per day and the snow board is more like 2.4" per day...so I generally look for around 16-18" per week to keep pace with climo. Its harder to keep up when fringed all the time, but that's how the chips fall sometimes. It does seem like a lot of snow but it usually isn't that difficult to keep up with if we get steady hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So glad you came back after your hiatus from posting... we missed these posts, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Long, long, long range sure looked terrible on 12z GFS. Turned on a dime with the 18z run. Just goes to show not to look too far ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Guidance can now "see" the middle portion of February a bit better than a few days ago. There is still a large amount of uncertainty in the guidance regarding the pattern evolution going forward into mid-February and beyond. However, there does seem to be a slight trend toward remaining near or below average for temperature through middle February. Beyond that, we could still see a thaw. The objective analogs favored colder than normal conditions on the whole for the week of Feb 10-17. The southern plains region of the country should be warming considerably after about the 15th, but the northeast and Great Lakes look to avoid the big warmup as of now...beyond the 20th is still a big question mark. We are still not immune from a cutter though during this period...NAO blocking doesn't look particularly strong but a weak block could be in place to help out marginally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Guidance can now "see" the middle portion of February a bit better than a few days ago. There is still a large amount of uncertainty in the guidance regarding the pattern evolution going forward into mid-February and beyond. However, there does seem to be a slight trend toward remaining near or below average for temperature through middle February. Beyond that, we could still see a thaw. The objective analogs favored colder than normal conditions on the whole for the week of Feb 10-17. The southern plains region of the country should be warming considerably after about the 15th, but the northeast and Great Lakes look to avoid the big warmup as of now...beyond the 20th is still a big question mark. We are still not immune from a cutter though during this period...NAO blocking doesn't look particularly strong but a weak block could be in place to help out marginally. How about storm signals? Looks pretty quiet after the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How about storm signals? Looks pretty quiet after the weekend storm? There's a possibility of something around the 13th but a lot of mixed signals on that. It could also have ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Guidance can now "see" the middle portion of February a bit better than a few days ago. There is still a large amount of uncertainty in the guidance regarding the pattern evolution going forward into mid-February and beyond. However, there does seem to be a slight trend toward remaining near or below average for temperature through middle February. Beyond that, we could still see a thaw. The objective analogs favored colder than normal conditions on the whole for the week of Feb 10-17. The southern plains region of the country should be warming considerably after about the 15th, but the northeast and Great Lakes look to avoid the big warmup as of now...beyond the 20th is still a big question mark. We are still not immune from a cutter though during this period...NAO blocking doesn't look particularly strong but a weak block could be in place to help out marginally. There has been a subtle trend to perhaps limit the thaw potential too. The GOA trough will have to be dealt with, but it doesn't look like a prolonged furnace as ridging tries to develop out west again. As you said, the NAO may help us out and you sort of see this on the 12z GFS. The arctic may be shut off, but I see a decent pattern for storm chances IMHO. Obviously ptype to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 There's Ray's Miller B for SUN-MON on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Models are ever do slightly trying to force some ridging up west of the Davis Straits. It's not strong, but you can see its effects in trying to force cyclogenesis near the Eaat Coast instead of all lake cutters. Definitely some potential for a thaw, but it's an active look I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Epic tele battle between disparate signals... warm upper, cold down ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS somehow manages to pull a blizzard Feb 13-14; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 what an active start to feb. another potential system around the 14/15th. Tip, if the NAO continues to be strongly positive...what is causing the confluence overhead to not move out easily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 what an active start to feb. another potential system around the 14/15th. Tip, if the NAO continues to be strongly positive...what is causing the confluence overhead to not move out easily? It's a complicated question. It's relative. The NAO may be positive, but it may still be negative relative to the cold pour off the -EPO, if/when the EPO is the dominant cold loader into N/A. If the EPO is negative, the NAO can do what ever it wants; it has to be pretty incredible to succeed against the EPO. EPO is the rule. It can be neutral, and the NAO can win dominance at times... but any hiccup once, thus allowing the EPO's reign, and the NAO is overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's a complicated question. It's relative. The NAO may be positive, but it may still be negative relative to the cold pour off the -EPO, if/when the EPO is the dominant cold loader into N/A. If the EPO is negative, the NAO can do what ever it wants; it has to be pretty incredible to succeed against the EPO. EPO is the rule. It can be neutral, and the NAO can win dominance at times... but any hiccup once, thus allowing the EPO's reign, and the NAO is overrated. Hmmm...ok. The winter has definitely felt pv driven. With a split flow now though and a little relaxation of said pv, boom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GEFS actually beating the euro IMO. Pattern going forward continues to look tasty imo. Of course we run the risk of a thaw....but the EC ensemble last week can eat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 00z EC ensemble run was a complete furnace. I just looked back. GEFS were much colder and will win this battle. It's funny because the EC schooled the GEFS when they were trying to torch late January. It's like whatever model is the coldest wins...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Very strange evolution of 2/13-2/14 on 12z GFS... First storm misses us but then a wave blows up offshore and nukes ENE...I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro Ens have a pretty strong signal for the 13-15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Euro Ens have a pretty strong signal for the 13-15th Yeah definitely. Tht one looks like it would be more "dangerous" in terms of ptype issues, but that's a big look on the ensembles for 7-8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Didn't the EURO ensembles have the same potent look at this range for the 9-10th storm too, which is why I'm not buying this out to sea crap storm that the models are sniffing on now. I will not believe such a strong storm signal 7 days out, disappears in the 4-6 day range only to get it back in the three day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah definitely. Tht one looks like it would be more "dangerous" in terms of ptype issues, but that's a big look on the ensembles for 7-8 days out. The GFS was showing something around that timeframe too. Maybe it has legs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LOL. The GFS refuses to give up on at least a moderate event (3-6" or 4-8") Sun-Mon. Close to something much bigger too. I would love to see the EURO jump on board or at least trend toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ensembles continue to show weak -NAO ridging with height rises over the west coast and a GOA trough. This teleconnects to troughing over the east. At this point, ptype is tough to determine, but a potential stormy pattern looks to be in the cards. Intriguing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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