Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The correlation lies in that people remember full moons. They're big. They're extremely noticeable. Not many folks go outside and comment on the waning gibbous moon. The news media doesn't show pictures of the crescent moon and doesn't do stories about the largest super 1/2 moon in years. But when it's stormy and the tides are high due to a full moon, people notice. Damn, that was one heck of a storm. Remember that time back in 1941, when the wind whipped the waves right up to the Becker's house and tore down their dock? And then the full moon came out the next night and it was gorgeous, with all that snow on the ground? Yeah, what a storm. Thus begins the anecdotal evidence.explain the new moon, did you even read what he posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 If it's not in a box..... Great post Tip His post is good for explaining how perhaps how certain aspect of northeast cyclogenesis could be affected...and nobody is actually disputing the hypotheticals...it is just that those are things that can be measured and they have not been measured to a statistically robust degree. I.E. It is still anecdotel evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Dead Sea scrolls.closed mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 His post is good for explaining how perhaps how certain aspect of northeast cyclogenesis could be affected...and nobody is actually disputing the hypotheticals...it is just that those are things that can be measured and they have not been measured to a statistically robust degree. I.E. It is still anecdotel evidence. So was the solar influence 25 years ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 We can punt the last 9 days of the month up here. Hopefully the 3/1 system begins to trend our way. PHL is still ahead of BTV in snow by a couple of inches LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 So was the solar influence 25 years ago... There's no solar influence on east coast cyclogenesis that can be measured. Of course the sun is what "makes" our weather via differential heating...but that is different from linking it on a regional scale of frequency and intensity iof cyclogensis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 There are big storms all the time across the globe full moon or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Let's just focus on the Monday snow for now. Everything on board except Euro and the way it's performed with N streams this year we know where it will go in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Let's just focus on the Monday snow for now. Everything on board except Euro and the way it's performed with N streams this year we know where it will go in future runs It might happen, but it doesn't look very impressive even on the guidance that has it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 There's no solar influence on east coast cyclogenesis that can be measured. Of course the sun is what "makes" our weather via differential heating...but that is different from linking it on a regional scale of frequency and intensity iof cyclogensis. no just saying that there was a great scientific denial of solar cycle influence. Probably the timing and strength of the moon cycle has more to do with strength of storms. Just because there is a full, new moon means little, however judging by the overwhelming occurrences of the biggest and bad storms coinciding with strong moon cycles indicates to me that there is an assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It might happen, but it doesn't look very impressive even on the guidance that has it right now.Itll be just a couple inches to get us back on track after the 4 day hell torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Itll be just a couple inches to get us back on track after the 4 day hell torch We're getting off light...trust me. Compared to what was shown about 7-10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Welll back to realityville.....hopefully one of these deals next week works out..moon or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 We're getting off light...trust me. Compared to what was shown about 7-10 days ago. Dewpoints are like 18F..lol. Unless you are a south facing slope...most areas are doing ok today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Dewpoints are like 18F..lol. Unless you are a south facing slope...most areas are doing ok today. Tomorrow is going to destroy a lot of folks relatively speaking once the fog and dews and winds set in. CAD folks FTW I'm not worried about Saturday here..It's just tomorrow where we might lose a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 explain the new moon, did you even read what he posted? Read it, but serious comprehension failure on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Tomorrow is going to destroy a lot of folks relatively speaking once the fog and dews and winds set in. CAD folks FTW I'm not worried about Saturday here..It's just tomorrow where we might lose a foot Saturday will be like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Saturday will be like today. Today didn't do much damage at all here except melt the ice of the driveways and streets..I can tell it compacted a little..but the low dews and high of 42 were no biggie. It's tomorrow when it's 58/56 that concerns me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Saturday will be like today. Sat looks to have dews in the 30's during the day, more melting than today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Welll back to realityville.....hopefully one of these deals next week works out..moon or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Awesome bluebird day of skiing and tubing at Powder Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Sat looks to have dews in the 30's during the day, more melting than today Behind the fropa? I see dews in the 20s on MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 His post is good for explaining how perhaps how certain aspect of northeast cyclogenesis could be affected...and nobody is actually disputing the hypotheticals...it is just that those are things that can be measured and they have not been measured to a statistically robust degree. I.E. It is still anecdotel evidence. Not to derail this thread any further into the debate ... the link I provided, http://www.davidmcmi...refsweather.htm, does at least back us into SOME kind of correlation to lunar phases -- that "might" be more than mere anecdotal a that point, But it is true -- at least as far as I'm learned: there is no directly measured evidence. But Will's right, I was just trying to be hypothetical as one possible way among many, if for nothing else to provide example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The euro ensembles have ridiculous - depatures at the surface under that arctic high next week. If that storm misses off to the south, it's appearing the deep south (AGAIN) will be under the gun for another ice storm..and possibly a bad one. This is one of those deals where getting a little snow ahead of the arctic air will help keep departures down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The euro ensembles have ridiculous - depatures at the surface under that arctic high next week. If that storm misses off to the south, it's appearing the deep south (AGAIN) will be under the gun for another ice storm..and possibly a bad one. This is one of those deals where getting a little snow ahead of the arctic air will help keep departures down.Pattern just isn't conducive for suppression. It's going to be a very snowy week next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Not to derail this thread any further into the debate ... the link I provided, http://www.davidmcmi...refsweather.htm, does at least back us into SOME kind of correlation to lunar phases -- that "might" be more than mere anecdotal a that point, But it is true -- at least as far as I'm learned: there is no directly measured evidence. But Will's right, I was just trying to be hypothetical as one possible way among many, if for nothing else to provide example its not all anecdotal and voodoo, there is science. Arrogance closes the mind to possibilities not in a college textbook. Back to reality, dead sea scrolls,voodoo those were some awesome intelligent posts to debate with, condescending actually. "Associate Professor Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans has found what he thinks is real evidence that the phase of moon drives cyclone behaviour Storms that occurred in the Atlantic Ocean between 1950 and 2007 were more likely to form right after the new moon. They also intensified 49% more often after a new moon than at any other time in the 29.5-day lunar cycle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Pattern just isn't conducive for suppression. It's going to be a very snowy week next week It could be suppressed...the larger storm that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Oh my word on the GFS..lol. Hello Mr vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Pattern just isn't conducive for suppression. It's going to be a very snowy week next week Huh -- you can't bring -4 SD anomaly into S Ontario and NOT have suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 its not all anecdotal and voodoo, there is science. Arrogance closes the mind to possibilities not in a college textbook. Back to reality, dead sea scrolls,voodoo those were some awesome intelligent posts to debate with, condescending actually. "Associate Professor Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans has found what he thinks is real evidence that the phase of moon drives cyclone behaviour Storms that occurred in the Atlantic Ocean between 1950 and 2007 were more likely to form right after the new moon. They also intensified 49% more often after a new moon than at any other time in the 29.5-day lunar cycle" Best thing to do is provide data and formal, refereed research papers that directly impugn the notion of "voodoo" science. I don't even know how this discussion got started; I merely offered some educated insight combined with cursory (quickie) research on the web. I will say, from a purely diplomatic position, it may be less than a wise choice to boldly assert at first, a lunar cause. I'm not sure if any did, but I have seen that posting behavior in the past, and it can put some off. I can easily visualize a scenario where a Met or well educated enthusiast happens by the forum and the first thing they encounter might be, "Yeah, because the new moon will cause that storm" (so to speak). Eyes roll.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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