February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread

[Damage In Tolland]

1-3 Sunday nite..and then 3-6 Wed..and blizzard end of week

[CoastalWx]

1-3 Sunday nite..and then 3-6 Wed..and blizzard end of week

 

Mighty ambitious, but I expect no less from you.

[mahk_webstah]

1-3 Sunday nite..and then 3-6 Wed..and blizzard end of week

I love the way you simplify things!

 

And I suspect you are onto something here.  We have been on quite the roll and that pattern is only getting better.  It seems like we are now looking at a real possibly for NAO blocking - and at the best time possible.  We go from one great EPO driven pattern to another AO NAO driven pattern.

 

Hoping my snow pack is still above 30 when I get home friday night...and above 40 when I leave for Dublin the nght of March 1.  And over 48 when I return on March 7.   I think that is actually possible lol.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I love the way you simplify things!

And I suspect you are onto something here. We have been on quite the roll and that pattern is only getting better. It seems like we are now looking at a real possibly for NAO blocking - and at the best time possible. We go from one great EPO driven pattern to another AO NAO driven pattern.

Hoping my snow pack is still above 30 when I get home friday night...and above 40 when I leave for Dublin the nght of March 1. And over 48 when I return on March 7. I think that is actually possible lol.

I dont see ridging in the Green Land on gefs though...euro ens show signs?

[jamesnichols1989]

I'm not all that excited about the Monday and Wednesday systems, too fast of a flow over the Northeast US which does not allow anything to slow down at all and basically dump on us for anything longer than 6-12 hours.  I think as we get into March there is a better chance, but right now its looking slim for this week.  No large high pressure system to anchor in the cold air for coastal New England even with an arctic air mass it will likely warm up too much to support anything near 12:1 ratios for the coastal plain.  Still enough time to discern change, but again, models are still unclear.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not all that excited about the Monday and Wednesday systems, too fast of a flow over the Northeast US which does not allow anything to slow down at all and basically dump on us for anything longer than 6-12 hours.  I think as we get into March there is a better chance, but right now its looking slim for this week.  No large high pressure system to anchor in the cold air for coastal New England even with an arctic air mass it will likely warm up too much to support anything near 12:1 ratios for the coastal plain.  Still enough time to discern change, but again, models are still unclear.

 

You shouldn't care how big they are..anything helps this time of year.

 

Second, Ratios are the least of my worries. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I love the way you simplify things!

 

And I suspect you are onto something here.  We have been on quite the roll and that pattern is only getting better.  It seems like we are now looking at a real possibly for NAO blocking - and at the best time possible.  We go from one great EPO driven pattern to another AO NAO driven pattern.

 

Hoping my snow pack is still above 30 when I get home friday night...and above 40 when I leave for Dublin the nght of March 1.  And over 48 when I return on March 7.   I think that is actually possible lol.

It just fits the pattern we're moving into. Core of cold is west..impulses embedded in the flow..grabbing some gulf moisture as the Se ridge still flexes a bit.

Boom

it snows

[jamesnichols1989]

You shouldn't care how big they are..anything helps this time of year.

 

Second, Ratios are the least of my worries. 

 

I guess so, but I want to see a big storm, I love them, I like snow regardless of whether or not its 2-4" type deals or 12"+ deals.  So whether or not we get snow, the models are beginning to show signs of life in regards to the 24-25th 2-4" type of storm.

[mahk_webstah]

didn't the Euro show the PV dropping south while the -AO builds above?  If the PV drops and the AO builds wouldn't some ridging tend to want to build in from above into greenland?  I think I also saw Atlantic ridging pushing up east of Greenland.  

 

I've been on the bandwagon that -NAO would develop sometime in the second half of winter.  Isn't the MJO Phase 8-1 coorelated with -NAO?

[heavy_wx]

didn't the Euro show the PV dropping south while the -AO builds above?  If the PV drops and the AO builds wouldn't some ridging tend to want to build in from above into greenland?  I think I also saw Atlantic ridging pushing up east of Greenland.  

 

I've been on the bandwagon that -NAO would develop sometime in the second half of winter.  Isn't the MJO Phase 8-1 coorelated with -NAO?

 

MJO relationships to teleconnections, especially over the Altantic are not easy to determine, at least from what I understand. For the Pacific, it can be a little more straight-forward since Rossby waves excited by MJO convection have been shown to propagate poleward and eastward. That may be why we are seeing the return of high height anomalies over Alaska on the model forecasts in the next 1-2 weeks. The GEFS MJO-filtered OLR forecasts show kind of a persistant phase 6-7 signal of convection during this time, just east of the Maritime Continent. Thus, Rossby waves excited by that convection have a favorable propagation pathway into the northern Pacific region.

[ORH_wxman]

didn't the Euro show the PV dropping south while the -AO builds above?  If the PV drops and the AO builds wouldn't some ridging tend to want to build in from above into greenland?  I think I also saw Atlantic ridging pushing up east of Greenland.  

 

I've been on the bandwagon that -NAO would develop sometime in the second half of winter.  Isn't the MJO Phase 8-1 coorelated with -NAO?

 

 

No sign of a -NAO...I wish we got one as it would help even more going into March, but I don't see anything in terms of solid -NAO ridging through 3/10.

[SJonesWX]

1-3 Sunday nite..and then 3-6 Wed..and blizzard end of week

sweet! can you tell me where the rain/snow line will set up for each event. TIA

[Hailstoned]

Not the new moon talk again.

 

Not the new moon talk again.

The correlation between the new moon time period and historic New England storms is astounding: March 30/31, 1984; Blizzard of 78; February 17, 1958; Ash Wednesday storm, 1962; Hurricane of 38; Hurricane Carol; Blizzard of 88; Blizzard 0f 1899; Saxby's gale; Great Colonial Hurricane, 1635; the great snow/hurricane of October, 1804... so I pay special attention when the long range models suggest storminess near or at the time of the new moon.

 

The full moon or just past it is another auspicious time; most recently, Sandy, 2012; December 10/11, 1992 (which also occurred one day after a full eclipse of the moon); Great Appalacian Storm, 1950; Portland gale and blizzard, 1898; Valentine's Day Blizzard, 1941; Minot's Light storm, 1851; Great Gale of February, 1723; Great snows of 1717 beginning just past the late February full moon; Great December Gale and snowstorm of 1786; February 21 blizzard, 1802; December 22 gale/blizzard, 1839.

 

In sum, though there are exceptions, the co-incidence of indeliible storms of New England history, and the times of the new and full moon cannot be denied. (Source for some of this information: Storms and Shipwrecks of New England, by Edward Rowe Snow, a great read if you can find it).

[ORH_wxman]

The correlation between the new moon time period and historic New England storms is astounding: March 30/31, 1984; Blizzard of 78; February 17, 1958; Ash Wednesday storm, 1962; Hurricane of 38; Hurricane Carol; Blizzard of 88; Blizzard 0f 1899; Saxby's gale; Great Colonial Hurricane, 1635; the great snow/hurricane of October, 1804... so I pay special attention when the long range models suggest storminess near or at the time of the new moon.

 

The full moon or just past it is another auspicious time; most recently, Sandy, 2012; December 10/11, 1992 (which also occurred one day after a full eclipse of the moon); Great Appalacian Storm, 1950; Portland gale and blizzard, 1898; Valentine's Day Blizzard, 1941; Minot's Light storm, 1851; Great Gale of February, 1723; Great snows of 1717 beginning just past the late February full moon; Great December Gale and snowstorm of 1786; February 21 blizzard, 1802; December 22 gale/blizzard, 1839.

 

In sum, though there are exceptions, the co-incidence of indeliible storms of New England history, and the times of the new and full moon cannot be denied. (Source for some of this information: Storms and Shipwrecks of New England, by Edward Rowe Snow, a great read if you can find it).

 

 

There would have to be a formal dataset with statistics to correlate dates of new moons and big storms to really have any substance to the claim that there is an unignorable connection. Otherwise, it is just anecdotel evidence, which doesn't mean much in science.

 

I haven't seen anything stastically substantial yet on this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No sign of a -NAO...I wish we got one as it would help even more going into March, but I don't see anything in terms of solid -NAO ridging through 3/10.

May will feature the most negative NAO on record.

[SJonesWX]

There would have to be a formal dataset with statistics to correlate dates of new moons and big storms to really have any substance to the claim that there is an unignorable connection. Otherwise, it is just anecdotel evidence, which doesn't mean much in science.

 

I haven't seen anything stastically substantial yet on this.

i would agree. it could be something as un-scientifically simple as (since 1900 there have been xx number of new moons. in that time frame there have been xx number of "major" storms. xx number of those major storms occurred during new moon periods (xx%)).

[CoastalWx]

i would agree. it could be something as un-scientifically simple as (since 1900 there have been xx number of new moons. in that time frame there have been xx number of "major" storms. xx number of those major storms occurred during new moon periods (xx%)).

With the periodocity of new and old moons and the time spam of days on either side of the event, it becomes the same logic the the farmers almanac uses for window of events. Voodoo.

[dryslot]

May will feature the most negative NAO on record.

So then we can be locked in the mank for the whole spring, Funny you just said this as i was about to post something similar

[ORH_wxman]

Suppression Depression this run of the Euro...it made Tuesday the timing of that first event rather than Wednesday (and promptly whiffs us to the south) and then the big one in clown range is a scraper....though neither of these are close enough to really mean much yet. The multiple impulses in the flow will give guidance trouble until we get closer.

 

It also wasn't buying the Sunday night/Monday morning deal like the GFS/GGEM were trying to sell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

So then we can be locked in the mank for the whole spring, Funny you just said this as i was about to post something similar

I wasn't kidding, either.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

May will feature the most negative NAO on record.

We certainly could be headed for big nao drops in spring and summer. I hope this isnt a sign to come where we are back to positive winters and negative summers.

[Randy4Confluence]

Will we evet see snow again you think?

[dryslot]

I wasn't kidding, either.

 

Neither am i, I expect it

[cja1987]

Suppression Depression this run of the Euro...it made Tuesday the timing of that first event rather than Wednesday (and promptly whiffs us to the south) and then the big one in clown range is a scraper....though neither of these are close enough to really mean much yet. The multiple impulses in the flow will give guidance trouble until we get closer.

 

It also wasn't buying the Sunday night/Monday morning deal like the GFS/GGEM were trying to sell.

 

That threat out in clown range 3/1-2 goes almost due east from Jacksonville, FL before throwing a secondary way out NE to the fish in the Atlantic. Not a very realistic track physically possible but I dont think Ive ever seen it. Not that its even worth discussing at this range but did that firehose event last March that dumped ~30 on some not start out modeled to go due east out of the mid atlantic and many of us believed it and punted the storm? I know I did not have the guts to say it publically at the time or make a forecast but I remember saying "that is not going down as modeled" about that one, and Id say the same about this one it it were a bit closer.

 

I don't believe such a suppressed solution. I think if the threat stays, it comes back NW, right now I think its a matter of getting the PV/colder air in here or at least closer in range for the models to stop over correcting a bit on the southeastward extent of it. The PV is fighting anomalously high heights trying to build back west from the N Atlantic around the start of March (though GEFS/EPS have backed off that a little) and I think the battleground is right over our fannies and thats where the baroclinicity and any storms will end up.

 

Long story short, I really like early March, really like it and I'm not in the least bit worried about suppression.

 

and :weenie:

 

before somebody else does

[ApacheTrout]

The correlation between the new moon time period and historic New England storms is astounding: March 30/31, 1984; Blizzard of 78; February 17, 1958; Ash Wednesday storm, 1962; Hurricane of 38; Hurricane Carol; Blizzard of 88; Blizzard 0f 1899; Saxby's gale; Great Colonial Hurricane, 1635; the great snow/hurricane of October, 1804... so I pay special attention when the long range models suggest storminess near or at the time of the new moon.

 

The full moon or just past it is another auspicious time; most recently, Sandy, 2012; December 10/11, 1992 (which also occurred one day after a full eclipse of the moon); Great Appalacian Storm, 1950; Portland gale and blizzard, 1898; Valentine's Day Blizzard, 1941; Minot's Light storm, 1851; Great Gale of February, 1723; Great snows of 1717 beginning just past the late February full moon; Great December Gale and snowstorm of 1786; February 21 blizzard, 1802; December 22 gale/blizzard, 1839.

 

In sum, though there are exceptions, the co-incidence of indeliible storms of New England history, and the times of the new and full moon cannot be denied. (Source for some of this information: Storms and Shipwrecks of New England, by Edward Rowe Snow, a great read if you can find it).

The correlation lies in that people remember full moons.  They're big.  They're extremely noticeable.  Not many folks go outside and comment on the waning gibbous moon.  The news media doesn't show pictures of the crescent moon and doesn't do stories about the largest super 1/2 moon in years.  But when it's stormy and the tides are high due to a full moon, people notice.  Damn, that was one heck of a storm.  Remember that time back in 1941, when the wind whipped the waves right up to the Becker's house and tore down their dock?  And then the full moon came out the next night and it was gorgeous, with all that snow on the ground?  Yeah, what a storm.  Thus begins the anecdotal evidence.

[Typhoon Tip]

I was just doing some cursory research utilizing the good old masters of find-and-seek, Google, re this debate about lunar influences on the atmosphere.  I found this interesting site that contains numerous abstracts (article summaries...) that suggests there are various correlations:  http://www.davidmcminn.com/p2/refsweather.htm.  There are also a myriad of other sources out there.

 

Firstly, do not blame the messenger!  The content of that, or any links that contain similar sciences, do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the individual who posted them. 

 

Having said that, ... my personal belief is that (duh) the moon has to effect the atmosphere at some scale, just as it does effect tidally on everything that is within reach of it's gravitational influence.  That's just not arguable.  The atmosphere is an object, just as much as the Earth that holds it down, the oceans underneath the air, or any near-by asteroid or dust particle.  Everything that has a physical, measurable presence in the cosmos that is within gravitational influence of any object, experiences a tidal exertion by said object. 

 

The question is, how much, and in the case of our moon, is it enough to effect intensity and frequency of specific atmospheric events. The statistics that are provided by the link above argue that the influence by the moon, must be enough; unfortunately, that offers zippo explanation as to the 'how'. The, how -- that's the 64,000 $ question.

 

I could think up a myriad of science-fiction -like ideas to explain how, but at the end the day, something is more than likely going on; that many statistically suggestive, and refereed studies, are difficult to explain away.  My first hypothesis:   It doesn't effect frequency, but perhaps intensity.  The way that works (possibly) is that storms and intervening intervals of quiescence are an ebb and flow (no pun intended) that is a constant in its own rite.  Then, along comes the moon as an additive, or a subtraction in force, do to tidal variations that may very well only be measurable at quantum scales.   Take one gram of atmosphere, and try to measure the amount of tidal exertion on it by the moon; the results may be too small to conceive significance.  Now, consider that the atmosphere is composed of ~ 5.15×10¹⁸ kg of air.

 

That's an awful lot of those little grams piled up on top of each other, and when integrating all those presumably minute tidal exertions, you could wind up with something big ...well, big enough.  If the whole of the atmosphere were sloshing even a foot, both horizontally and vertically: for one, it may be very difficult to prove that it is even so, given to being lost in the chaotic noise of the everyday maelstrom; but secondly, that would have to compose at least some fraction of space in the torque budget.  Compounding, we all know that the torque is dynamic, and that intervals of storminess and quiescence are both statistically correlated, as defined by phases and so forth.  

 

The basic principle of this line of reasoning:  In the past I have often referred to a phrase, teleconnetor convergence. The idea is that you can have multiple, disparate regions that have teleconnections favoring a warm or cool paradigm.  Suppose the PNA is positive and the NAO is negative -- that would be two teleconnectors signaling cool for the OV, for example.  That overlap in statistical connection enhances (or can) the predictability for cool anomalies to evolve in and around that region of the U.S.  With the inclusion of a yet to be proven lunar tidal correlation to atmospheric events, it would simply be another teleconnector to include in all this chaos we call atmospheric dynamics.     

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems like Euro struggling again with northern stream system with all other models having it snow Monday. Expect it to catch on by Saturday

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles are actually hinting more at Wednesday than the OP run's Tuesday whiff. The Wednesday idea is more in line with previous runs and also other guidance.

 

It is still 5-6 days out though and the ensemble spread is large on this one...so anything can happen at this point.

[Ginx snewx]

If it's not in a box..... Great post Tip

[CoastalWx]

Dead Sea scrolls.