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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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I feel like my hood should be in the mid 30s on saturday looking at gfs...but my forecasted high is in the mid 40s. so obv im looking at the maps incorrectly.

 

oh I was looking at 850s, i needs to be looking at 950s? got it.

0C 850s with westerlies/good mixing is not cold at the sfc. Sat will push 50F down there.

MAV is really warm the next 4 days. It's too warm up here on Friday because of the CAD, but the other days are well into the 40s even up here.

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I was worried about suppression depression in some of the runs about 24 hours ago. Things seem to be improving in regards to that.

Yeah you don't want it THAT cold. Next week snow chances are very much up in the air so don't hang your hat on them just yet. My guess is maybe we can tickle in a small event at some point, but a lot of moving parts here.

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Feb 28-Mar 1 definitely has some legs...obviously still early though. We saw what happened to Feb 9th too when it had some legs. Feb 5th worked out and Feb 12-13th worked out from decent lead time, but Feb 9th crapped the bed and that signal was strong, so they don't all work out.

 

 

We'll see what it looks like once inside of 7 days.

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Feb 28-Mar 1 definitely has some legs...obviously still early though. We saw what happened to Feb 9th too when it had some legs. Feb 5th worked out and Feb 12-13th worked out from decent lead time, but Feb 9th crapped the bed and that signal was strong, so they don't all work out.

 

 

We'll see what it looks like once inside of 7 days.

i think the pattern suggsts it is likely that something significant will happen between 25-26 and 28-2.  of what nature and track, who knows...  the way it has been going lately it is hard not to be optimisitc.

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We take what the 12z GFS shows and run with it.

Monday, nice weak overrunning event and than mid-week has a bit more coastal enhancement.

 

 

We'll probably get something trackable in there somewhere. Its another fairly fast moving flow after the secondary front rips through on Sunday with lots of embedded vortmaxima...so models will be up and down with handling those, but we have a solid chance at coming away with something out of those impulses...then hopefully a much bigger event to close the month out.

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We'll probably get something trackable in there somewhere. Its another fairly fast moving flow after the secondary front rips through on Sunday with lots of embedded vortmaxima...so models will be up and down with handling those, but we have a solid chance at coming away with something out of those impulses...then hopefully a much bigger event to close the month out.

 

Sort of why I am not high on anything around Monday.  Sure it can happen but I won't bank on it.  I like mid-week on as we pump up the ridge out W.  Don't need to tell you this though.

 

End of the month is out in la-la land but it's been signaled now for a few days.  Let's see if if has some legs by mid-week.

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