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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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The stupid torches really are the only things I hold against the winter. The recent rain isn't fun, but that is to be expected. What would launch this into the echelons of 94,96, 2005, 2011 are one or two good storms.

Yeah. All those will be more memorable to me for snow depending on how things do or don't pan out next few weeks. This winter for me will be remembered for the persistence and intensity of the cold, which I can't believe is making another comeback. The torches stink but even the best winters including those you reference had some serious torch interruptions. Also those epic 70s winters I remember. I remember it being a balmy day b/f the Feb. 78 blizzard.

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I agree with powder. We are essentially at normal here in the BTV area for now, but could slip back below for a bit if nothing follows the rainer for awhile. February has been a lot better than January but we would have to get absolutely pummeled through the end to see anything close to what would be considered epic, historic, or memorable.

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Just over 80 inches with the 3" of cement today.

 

 

I think this pattern can easily produce another 20"+ from Feb 25 through the end of March. Wouldn't be shocked at another blockbuster March.

 

I mean it would really just take one big one to push a lot of place to near triple digits.

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ORH has a legit shot to go back to back 100"+ for the first time since 1992-1993 and 1993-1994....and the 2nd time on record.

 

Yeah--you're in good position for that.  We got screwed out here too much this season with the systems being to the south and east, so we're only at 69".  We'll need a helluva storm or two to get to that level. 

 

Like Scott said--if it weren't for the horrific (literal) meltdowns, the winter would rank signifianlty higher.  But, we're nickle and diming toward climo and have had some chilly conditions outside of the melts.  Hopefully, next week will play out.

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Is the reason why we arent as cold as we could be on saturday because of sw winds warming surface temps? It looks chilly aloft.

 

I'm not sure if I understand what the question is, but if you just mix down 925 or 950 mb temps (where models show us mixing to) we're pretty close to forecast highs. Tack on a couple of degrees for the downslope dandy and there you go.

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I'm not sure if I understand what the question is, but if you just mix down 925 or 950 mb temps (where models show us mixing to) we're pretty close to forecast highs. Tack on a couple of degrees for the downslope dandy and there you go.

 

I feel like my hood should be in the mid 30s on saturday looking at gfs...but my forecasted high is in the mid 40s. so obv im looking at the maps incorrectly.

 

oh I was looking at 850s, i needs to be looking at 950s? got it.

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