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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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I am not seeing much as of now. Unfortunately the ski conditions will take a hit from the rainer of death on Friday.

I think rainer of death might be overstating things a bit

1) The snowpack in my hood can take some water.

2) It isn't going to get all that warm, 43° is my P&C high for Friday.

3) It is going to back below freezing pretty quickly

4) You underestimate the skill of the groomers at the resorts. With as much snow, natural and manmade, as thy have right now, they will be able to provide a good product. Different story if you're looking for powder but considering how things were in January, this will be a minor bump in their road.

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No doubt if the GFS is close to correct, then records for late February/early Mar would be shattered across the northern tier. That is a ludicrous airmass for that time of the year. Its not that outlandish either because the Euro essentially shows the same thing:

 

 

:lol:   "They've gone to plaid!"

 

You should check out the ensembles from the 12z ...  Eight out of the twelve members have SOME kind of storm system affecting eastern N/A as a kind of cold herald.   One of the member, P003 below, has quite the historic, if not histrionic apocalypse

 

post-904-0-21033500-1392840157_thumb.jpg

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Anyone see the 240 hour EURO? Mammoth low crawling up the coast with a 1040+ Hp to the N...exciting times ahead. 

 

 

Euro ensembles are quite bullish on this setup as well. The combination of basically historic cold airmass for that time of year to the north and some energy cutting underneath it from the PAC is like a powderkeg with a spark.

 

We'll see how that develops in the coming days but I'd be surprised if we didn't see any type of large scale storm system moving out of the south around Feb 27-Mar 1.

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Euro ensembles are quite bullish on this setup as well. The combination of basically historic cold airmass for that time of year to the north and some energy cutting underneath it from the PAC is like a powderkeg with a spark.

 

We'll see how that develops in the coming days but I'd be surprised if we didn't see any type of large scale storm system moving out of the south around Feb 27-Mar 1.

Imagine if we squeezed a KU in Feb....wow.

Epic is overused, but that would certainly qualify.

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Euro ensembles are quite bullish on this setup as well. The combination of basically historic cold airmass for that time of year to the north and some energy cutting underneath it from the PAC is like a powderkeg with a spark.

We'll see how that develops in the coming days but I'd be surprised if we didn't see any type of large scale storm system moving out of the south around Feb 27-Mar 1.

wood
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On Cape Cod Harwich is up to 49.5" of snowfall, one of our best winters of the last 20 years, we had some goose eggs some winters, but we also had a few of 50"+ as well with a top winter of 04-05 with 98.9"

 

I called 99" for GYX this season, thought I had no shot after January. Yet here we stand at 70.8", one good storm away from being in range.

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Well the op had a snow eventSunday nite..so I was curious if it had supprot

 

not sure I would call that a "storm"...it had like an inch or two of snow on a weak impulse in the fast flow.

 

It had a more significant threat on the 26th...but that one only has marginal ensemble support right now. Tight window on that one, but there's a shot.

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