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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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I would say for my area to punt the rest of February outside of weak northern stream disturbances/clippers. After the rainer of death on Friday it is a reminder of January with generally dry and cold conditions except for those aforementioned impulses.

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How low can the departures go??? 

 

 

I think they won't go any lower for February than they are today...the cold next week will be really impressive, but the departures take a dent before that. ORH is -4.2F on the month so far. I'm guessing the month finishes warmer than that. Prob in the -3F range, but we'll see how the arctic airmass trends and just how warm we get on Friday. If we can counterfeit the low temperature Friday morning after FROPA before midnight and also if the high on Friday is only in the 40s, then we may escape with only like a +10 departure that day. If that's the case and the arctic shot comes in really hard the final few days of February, then there would be an outside chance at finishing the month colder than the current -4.2F....BDL I think has little chance being at -6F so far this month....all those great radiational cooling nights have really lowered them, so they will take a hit that they won't be able to recover from since their starting point is so low.

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Currently winds look to range from 20-30 knots at the surface, with 55 knot winds at 950mb, however the inversion is quite intense from the surface to around 900mb, precluding any of these 950mb gusts from reaching the surface, so currently thinking 20-30 knot wind gusts seem most probable with a limit to any gusts past 35mph.

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A 360 hour Euro snowmap? I've never even heard of those...not sure I want to know about it either. :lol:

yep and no you don't lets just say its posted on this forum someplace, not going to rat anybody out. Its awesome though, what a weenie map, best ever. Put it this way, even the hardiest NNE town would be having issues, those spots with upper 30's would be 60's. Obviously totally unbelievable. My take, shows potential for some good stuff in the next 15 days. 

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No doubt if the GFS is close to correct, then records for late February/early Mar would be shattered across the northern tier. That is a ludicrous airmass for that time of the year. Its not that outlandish either because the Euro essentially shows the same thing:

 

 

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yep and no you don't lets just say its posted on this forum someplace, not going to rat anybody out. Its awesome though, what a weenie map, best ever. Put it this way, even the hardiest NNE town would be having issues, those spots with upper 30's would be 60's. Obviously totally unbelievable. My take, shows potential for some good stuff in the next 15 days. 

Are we talking depth?  Geez.  Solid 20"+ at home.  Not fluff either...meat and potatoes type stuff.

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EURO shows a snow threat for Sunday and Monday for New England.  Colder version of the Feb 18th 2014 event.

 

Not so much VT on that one. Another SNE special unless it trends farther NW. Run to run consistency is minimal at this point though.

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