New Englander Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My thoughts of the Pattern repost for Feb Posted 08 January 2014 - 09:55 AM experimental and for fun WE 01/25/14 Continued well below normal with possible large area snow storm 1/22-1/24 possible significant clipper on the 25th -4 to -6 W/E 02/01/11 Continued well below normal with possible coastal snow storm 1/28-1/30 , entire country is cold to end the month -4 to -6 W/E 02/08/14 Brief warm up 2/3 with an interior snow storm 4/5 cold then the thaw begins 2/7 0 to+2 W/E 2/15/14 Much warmer than normal through the NE thaw week with rain interior possible ice interior way above normal, +4 to +6 W/E 2/22/14 return to normal with moderate snows around the 19th 20th and 22/23rd 0 to -1 W/E 3/1/14 month ends with a bang with a big coastal storm, may be suppressed SNE , MA best then vodka cold -5 to -7 Very Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I still like the 2/9 look even given how far away it is. We will have some decent cold preceding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Using ECENS as an example at BDL one can see the opportunity for a snowy cold 15 day period.850 means, temp means and QPF means all point to the most active possible snowiest period of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I still like the 2/9 look even given how far away it is. We will have some decent cold preceding it. Yeah agreed. Let that get closer and I bet it ramps up a bit...should be another juicy one coming out of the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z doesn't look too appealing with the 2/9 potential system 18z even worse. That one went bad in a hurry. Plenty of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z even worse. That one went bad in a hurry. Plenty of time though. That's a function of the truncation I think... Note at hour 189 there's a 1044mb high pressure in the northeast... that looks like it would be a decent set-up. Then the resolution changes and the 1044mb high turns into a 1032mb high off the coast with warm air blasting northward. I bet this would be colder and further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wheee! 18z GFS going from 999 mb over Erie to 954 mb over P.E.I. I'm going to file that under unlikely, but at least things are looking good for closing the gap on my 99" snowfall prediction for GYX (40.9" to date). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Man you gotta wonder if maybe people south of the pike sneak in an inch or two on Monday. Maybe a little base before the bigger ticket system(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Man you gotta wonder if maybe people south of the pike sneak in an inch or two on Monday. Maybe a little base before the bigger ticket system(s) Well the trend this year has been nw at about 60-72 hrs out so it wouldn't be shocking to see this slide nw next 24 -36 hrs but wouldnt bet on a hit just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well the trend this year has been nw at about 60-72 hrs out so it wouldn't be shocking to see this slide nw next 24 -36 hrs but wouldnt bet on a hit just yet Oh I agree, I just wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if the favored zones (similar to the system on wednesday) saw a little bit of snow. Trends right now seem at least somewhat favorable, but obviously it's fickle at the moment. Would he nice though if area that are going to get the lowest snow totals on Wednesday can sneak in a little light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I guess I'll just post this here. In addition to the good post Will had outlining the next 10-15 days or so....the weak ridging in Greenland definitely isn't a phantom deal imo. That is absolutely key. The GOA troughing is real. Models like the EC handled that well. But, they were too zonal flow happy and now have a bit of ridging over the west coast which connects to troughing in the east. It's not a bitter cold setup....but it could be stormy if the ridging in Greenland is strong enough. Otherwise, we run the risk of milder type storms riding west of us from time to time. It's a high stakes reward pattern if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I guess I'll just post this here. In addition to the good post Will had outlining the next 10-15 days or so....the weak ridging in Greenland definitely isn't a phantom deal imo. That is absolutely key. The GOA troughing is real. Models like the EC handled that well. But, they were too zonal flow happy and now have a bit of ridging over the west coast which connects to troughing in the east. It's not a bitter cold setup....but it could be stormy if the ridging in Greenland is strong enough. Otherwise, we run the risk of milder type storms riding west of us from time to time. It's a high stakes reward pattern if things go right. It is very reminscent of the Feb 1969 pattern if the NAO can set up....however, we have to keep in mind that the Feb 1969 -NAO was extreme negative, so we'd want to see big blocking. The funny thing is Feb 1979 laso was similar (just not quite as extreme with the NAO) it it produced brutal cold for the first half of the month. Watch the Feb '56 analog too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It is very reminscent of the Feb 1969 pattern if the NAO can set up....however, we have to keep in mind that the Feb 1969 -NAO was extreme negative, so we'd want to see big blocking. The funny thing is Feb 1979 laso was similar (just not quite as extreme with the NAO) it it produced brutal cold for the first half of the month. Watch the Feb '56 analog too. Interesting times for sure. It seems like the storms will be there...we just need a little help with the NAO to keep them under us. The recent runs over the last few days have had big changes from 00z to 12z and vice-versa. The one thing that has slowly crept in was some ridging up there by Greenland.....weak, but it is there. Hopefully it stays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Jan final departures BOS -1.6ORH -2.3BDL -1.6NYC -4BDR -3.1ALB -2.9 BVT- 0.4 GRAY -1.1 MVL- 2.0 CON -1.1 PYM -1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This aint your Grandsons GW winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This aint your Grandsons GW winter It's been brutal out here in Michigan. 6th coldest January and 8th coldest month of all time at DTW. But wow at Northern Minnesota!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know we are getting out there, but another fairly strong signal for something near the 13-15 as well before we relax for a while. It looks like we could turn milder after V-Day..or at least the potential to turn mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know we are getting out there, but another fairly strong signal for something near the 13-15 as well before we relax for a while. It looks like we could turn milder after V-Day..or at least the potential to turn mild. I was thinking hard about the post Feb 9 period. Glad to hear something is brewing before I leave for India the night of Feb 15. Been a little rough this winter with the travel, but I am in NYC Feb 3-6 and then home until the 15th late. Some snow in NYC plus the stretch at home will be my deep deep winter for snowshoeing, snowmobiling etc. Is the 13-15th related to the west _NAO sticking around a bit? Somebody, was it you? was talking about 2 road we might go down mid month, either a retro and relax, or a retro and west based NAO block. Even up here those west based NAO blocks work well as we get close to and into march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How warm and long are we talking? I thought the ens had backed off on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How warm and long are we talking? I thought the ens had backed off on that? A lot will depend on if a -NAO develops and if it is strong enough to affect the SE Canada height field. We also don't know just exactly how the GOA/PNA region height field will develop. If we get a 2007/1969/1956 type pattern, then we would probably not warm up much at all...howeve,r if the NAO doesn't really help or the PAC side overwhelms it, then we could see a significant thaw much like that occurred in the Feb 15-20, 1994 period as well as the first half of February 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I was thinking hard about the post Feb 9 period. Glad to hear something is brewing before I leave for India the night of Feb 15. Been a little rough this winter with the travel, but I am in NYC Feb 3-6 and then home until the 15th late. Some snow in NYC plus the stretch at home will be my deep deep winter for snowshoeing, snowmobiling etc. Is the 13-15th related to the west _NAO sticking around a bit? Somebody, was it you? was talking about 2 road we might go down mid month, either a retro and relax, or a retro and west based NAO block. Even up here those west based NAO blocks work well as we get close to and into march. Well as Will said, there is some ridging up by that way, but it's not very strong. It also depends on the models weakening the ridging out near the dateline too quickly and exactly how strong and the orientation of the GOA trough is. I do think the CONUS as a whole warms up..especially south of 40N. It remains to be seen what happens here, but just something to watch. I do think the EPO will return again...so this may only be a temporary relaxation. Hope for a -NAO because that will help maintain more of a gradient look with the nrn tier much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How warm and long are we talking? I thought the ens had backed off on that? They did to a point, but the GOA trough will happen. To me, it's more about what happens over the -NAO domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well as Will said, there is some ridging up by that way, but it's not very strong. It also depends on the models weakening the ridging out near the dateline too quickly and exactly how strong and the orientation of the GOA trough is. I do think the CONUS as a whole warms up..especially south of 40N. It remains to be seen what happens here, but just something to watch. I do think the EPO will return again...so this may only be a temporary relaxation. Hope for a -NAO because that will help maintain more of a gradient look with the nrn tier much colder. -NAO would mean a reign of epicosity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GEFS continue to be much weaker with the GOA trough. Pretty good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Analogs are fantastic next 14 Days. Big hitters abound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Analogs are fantastic next 14 Days. Big hitters abound. Yeah should be quite solid through mid month...after that we could have a big thaw though if the NAO doesn't offset a deeper GOA trough. Still a lot of time to figure out those details though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What package today showed a neggy NAO? Anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What package today showed a neggy NAO? Anything? They all show a hint of a -NAO...but it needs to be strong enough to offset the GOA trough if that becomes too strong. Hard to say if that happens yet. Were talking like 2+ weeks out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I expect a thaw mid month of 3-5 days then we are set up for another run of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The EC continues to really weaken that riding near the dateline. It's slowly moving away from the torch it had a few days ago..but still has rather strong GOQ troughing. Just too early to really nail what guidance is right or wrong..but the EC just seems a bit too happy to weaken ridging and flood the US with milder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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