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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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snow maps are Epic I think PF would like that

For when? The ECM system next weekend? If we could grab one more decent warning event before this all starts to melt or we thaw, I may have to change my tune about this winter up here...as snowfall will have to work hard to catch normal, but snow depth days may get quite nice.

If we can mute the "torch" which don't look or taste like a torch, and then keep snowing through March, that would be a helluva turn-around from the 6-week abortion from like Dec 20 to early Feb.

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For when? The ECM system next weekend? If we could grab one more decent warning event before this all starts to melt or we thaw, I may have to change my tune about this winter up here...as snowfall will have to work hard to catch normal, but snow depth days may get quite nice.

If we can mute the "torch" which don't look or taste like a torch, and then keep snowing through March, that would be a helluva turn-around from the 6-week abortion from like Dec 20 to early Feb.

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Jesus H. That looks impressive, standard picnic table height is exactly 36" (trust me, I know my picnic tables). Man what a winter so far down south of here. I saw a COOP in southern VT is reporting a 39" snowpack right now, that's nuts.

Yep, 3 foot fence in the back, yes on the Euro, looks almost to a T for you in terms of snow, in fact more, only one run but man thats a NNE crusher right there, weenie maps approaching the magical 2 footer

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For when? The ECM system next weekend? If we could grab one more decent warning event before this all starts to melt or we thaw, I may have to change my tune about this winter up here...as snowfall will have to work hard to catch normal, but snow depth days may get quite nice.

If we can mute the "torch" which don't look or taste like a torch, and then keep snowing through March, that would be a helluva turn-around from the 6-week abortion from like Dec 20 to early Feb.

 

If you liked this past saturdays, You would like next weeks

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The mega torch on the ensembles died a fairly fast death the past several days...we were kind of preoccuripied with the recent storms, but that torch dwindled to like a 1-2 day affair...for the real warmth anyway. Mostly Thu-Fri...though Saturday could be a bit of downslope dandy. But only Friday looks to have any real high dewpoint intrusion. The warmth doesn't stand much of a chance against the snowpack.

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The mega torch on the ensembles died a fairly fast death the past several days...we were kind of preoccuripied with the recent storms, but that torch dwindled to like a 1-2 day affair...for the real warmth anyway. Mostly Thu-Fri...though Saturday could be a bit of downslope dandy. But only Friday looks to have any real high dewpoint intrusion. The warmth doesn't stand much of a chance against the snowpack.

So you think we'll come out of this with a solid 12-18 left?

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Euro ensembles are much flatter for next Sunday vs the OP run....the OP run was actually the most amplified solution of the 51 ensmeble members. A lot of the ensemble members want to keep things flatter and wait until Mon night/Tuesday to amplify that next shortwvae into a system.

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Wintry look Subday on EC ensembles.

Like Will said, torch died, except for a day. Thursday is mild, but I wouldn't call it a torch.

 

 

Almost looks like a weak overrunning wave moves south of us on Sunday and then the ensembles amplify the next s/w behind it into a system with more potential....but yeah, pretty wintry look overal...look how damned cold it has gotten on the ensmebles over the northern tier.

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Almost looks like a weak overrunning wave moves south of us on Sunday and then the ensembles amplify the next s/w behind it into a system with more potential....but yeah, pretty wintry look overal...look how damned cold it has gotten on the ensmebles over the northern tier.

Hell of a cold blast to end Feb and welcome "Morch" :lol:.

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Almost looks like a weak overrunning wave moves south of us on Sunday and then the ensembles amplify the next s/w behind it into a system with more potential....but yeah, pretty wintry look overal...look how damned cold it has gotten on the ensmebles over the northern tier.

Lets hope we can get that  850 burp squashed a little more south in the next two days, oh man.

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True if we get 3-5 Tues that would put at us 26-27 OTG after compaction..Would hurt to lose 14-18 inches but certainly far far better than the fears I had last week

Just verbatim now, with that euro depiction you really only further compact and absorb any liquid anyways then lock it in. Back of mind, outside shot at Jan 11 depths before its all set and done.

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