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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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How about the Wed night storm and the torch and subsequent fropa? Is it still slated to cold down again next Sunday/monday?

 

 

Torch is still there...the timing on when we cool off more permanently is still up in the air. Some runs get us cold by Sunday, others not until at least Monday or maybe Monday night.

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Tim Kelly on NECN thinks blocking and a back door cold front later this week. Not impressed with the mild up

 

Friday runs a risk of real mild stuff..but it is very iffy right now.  It now looks like Sunday into MOnday we are wedged and with a low coming up, a chance of rain, ice, and snow.

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Between two 8" storms and a depth to a foot plus and excellent skiing yesterday I have nothing to complain about. BTV is now 2.5" above normal on snow for the season. We have made up the lost ground. We torch at the end of next week but that isn't surprising after a good run. We will see what happens after that.

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IN THIS CASE A
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE--SHOULD DO TWO BIG THINGS: FIRST, IT WILL SHUT
OFF THE FIREHOSE INTO THE NORTHWEST. SECOND, IT SHOULD ACT IN
TANDEM WITH A ROTATION OF THE CROSS-POLAR VORTEX TO BEGIN TO
DELIVER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. THE LONG-RANGE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS REAMPLIFICATION FOR A WHILE NOW,
MARKING THE WARM-UP FOR MUCH OF THE NATION AS A "FALSE SPRING."
 

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Take what I think with a grain of salt cause that's what it's worth but:

I looked at the GEFS and Euro ensembles through next weekend.

The GEFS don't look awful.  Some 40's Weds-Saturday.  

Euro I can only see 24 hours at a time. Friday looks ugly.  

By the weekend both are improving with temps cooling.

By next Monday it's game on again.

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