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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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Kevin, I don't want to get into a pissing contest because your prostate is that of a 40 year old and I lose. Monday had almost no water. Doesn't matter though. We all have deep pack that will be tested severely next week.

there are plenty of posters in my area that will back up what i posted with snow depth.

 

But yeah..it's going to be ugly..I never envisioned days of 50's and 60's this month. Thought we could see a few in the 40's..but when the ens starting going nuts with the warmup ..it became reality.. 

 

This storm hasn't even started and I'm already very worried about seeing grass in 10 days

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I'm fine with an early end to the season....perhaps a parting short as pitchers and catchers return, then we transition to title defense.

 

I'll end around avg, at least.

 

 

It doesn't look like an early end IMHO. I think there's a good chance we reload to a colder/stormier pattern after the torch.

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Nice little event signaled on Euro today for Saturday...could be an inverted trough for eastern MA too...maybe low probability of advisory snows?

 

That would be a nice way to cap off the week. Hopefully we all at least get a general 1-2" like it shows.

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Nice little event signaled on Euro today for Saturday...could be an inverted trough for eastern MA too...maybe low probability of advisory snows?

 

That would be a nice way to cap off the week. Hopefully we all at least get a general 1-2" like it shows.

Folks are gonna be shoveling for 3-4 days in a row. There are going to be some irate people lol. Of course that will be us next weekend when it's 62 and sunny

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Nice little event signaled on Euro today for Saturday...could be an inverted trough for eastern MA too...maybe low probability of advisory snows?

 

That would be a nice way to cap off the week winter if you believe the balance of operational runs, blended together to create a tempo for the extended, with a soupcon of consideration for the teleconnector spread. Hopefully we all at least get a general 1-2" like it shows.

 

j/k, 

seriously though, the Euro and GGEM are most aggressive, but even the GFS does this, and they try to bring in an early ...obnoxiously early mud season.  

 

That doesn't preclude march going back wintry... but should the region average +4 to +9C at 850, with a prolonged west wind while being south of a retreated mean polar boundary, snow goes bye-bye and the ground gets soft.

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Absolutely beautiful guidance solutions for the long-range.  The only problem I see is a big trough being carved out lakes/midwest beyond D12, which could spell more cold and snow.  Hope that changes, but should torch until near the end of month.

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