ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro ensembles for next weekend 2/22-23: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro ensembles for next weekend 2/22-23: Just hope it's short enough and only a day or 2 in the 60's with low dews that we can at least keep a couple inches otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just hope it's short enough and only a day or 2 in the 60's with low dews that we can at least keep a couple inches otg Looks like Sat/Sun are the main days...Fri would prob be pretty warm too, though more like one of those 45F days with low dewpoints. Sat/Sun would be the two days to worry about for massive melting...prob more Sunday as there is a risk of some rain. Ens mean has 850 temps of like +8...that is massive for 276 hours out. Hopefully its too warm, but the pattern is one of those setups where it could support like +10 or +12 850 temps. Tickling into the 60s if that happened. Still a long ways out though. Looks like there is a potential reload of a wintry pattern after that at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like Sat/Sun are the main days...Fri would prob be pretty warm too, though more like one of those 45F days with low dewpoints. Sat/Sun would be the two days to worry about for massive melting...prob more Sunday as there is a risk of some rain. Ens mean has 850 temps of like +8...that is massive for 276 hours out. Hopefully its too warm, but the pattern is one of those setups where it could support like +10 or +12 850 temps. Tickling into the 60s if that happened. Still a long ways out though. Looks like there is a potential reload of a wintry pattern after that at least. Man that sounds 1996 esque.a complete wipeout.let's try and change this please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 EURO ENS after the thaw, reload, setting up for another great run. What a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ginx is an all out weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 CLipper looks like a fropa now...hopefully one of these little threats pans out. The 17-18th or so may have legs I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ginx is an all out weenie.yep, total, I would consider the three day thaw a naturally occurring typical pattern reload, Kevin will melt everyone's snow to Canada. A three day period of AN, BFD, love Euro OP fighting it back until the 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lost in the storm is models all showing a light to moderate snowfall Saturday into Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lost in the storm is models all showing a light to moderate snowfall Saturday into Saturday night All models? I see the GFS decides to develop a cstl well offshore now, but I don't see what you see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All models? I see the GFS decides to develop a cstl well offshore now, but I don't see what you see. Better tell BOX then THE CANADIAN DIGS IT DEEP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IT THEN MOVES FROM KENTUCKY TO NORTH CAROLINA AND DEEPENS OFF THE COAST OF NANTUCKET BY SATURDAY EVENING GIVING US A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. WE HAVE TAKEN THIS INTO CONSIDERATION BUT HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS ALSO NEAR NANTUCKET BUT 12 HOURS EARLIER AND 12 MB WEAKER THAN THE CANADIAN. THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKER STILL. BOTH GIVE US SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE PROBABILITIES OF SNOW SHOWERS...EXCEPT RAIN OR SNOW SOUTHEAST MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is the cutter for mid week next week still on the table? Any chance areas north of i-89 could escape with a net gain out of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 EURO ENS after the thaw, reload, setting up for another great run. What a winter. I will admit you never break the mold. You go cold and snowy all year round. Others bounce around from talking about torches or snow. I've just never seen you actually write, "Model X is an all out torch" or "wow those ensembles are warm and wet" or something during the winter. You'll focus on the cold after the torch. Kudos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I will admit you never break the mold. You go cold and snowy all year round. Others bounce around from talking about torches or snow. I've just never seen you actually write, "Model X is an all out torch" or "wow those ensembles are warm and wet" or something during the winter. You'll focus on the cold after the torch. Kudos.I have posted my six week forecasts three times, included in the forecasts were thaws rain storms and torches. I have no idea what you are talking about. I guess people who talk about a three day thaw out of a 30 day period are given a pass. I previously posted about the thaw, maybe you have the real weenie goggles. I believe I am the only one on here who posts forecasts six weeks in advance. I have mistimed the thaws, being a week early but nailed the Grinch storm and practically every big event since the first one was issued Nov 1experimental and for fun WE 01/25/14 Continued well below normal with possible large area snow storm 1/22-1/24 possible significant clipper on the 25th -4 to -6 W/E 02/01/11 Continued well below normal with possible coastal snow storm 1/28-1/30 , entire country is cold to end the month -4 to -6 W/E 02/08/14 Brief warm up 2/3 with an interior snow storm 4/5 cold then the thaw begins 2/7 0 to+2 W/E 2/15/14 Much warmer than normal through the NE thaw week with rain interior possible ice interior way above normal, +4 to +6 W/E 2/22/14 return to normal with moderate snows around the 19th 20th and 22/23rd 0 to -1 W/E 3/1/14 month ends with a bang with a big coastal storm, may be suppressed SNE , MA best then vodka cold -5 to -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol it's ok Ginxy...maybe I should have phrased that better. You have been posting the forecasts but you don't mention thaws like others do around here. We would never log on to see you posting a picture of a flame thrower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 lol it's ok Ginxy...maybe I should have phrased that better. You have been posting the forecasts but you don't mention thaws like others do around here. We would never log on to see you posting a picture of a flame thrower.why would I, that's done to scare Kevin who is afraid of his snow melting. I am grounded enough to know snow melts in SNE every month. I do find it odd that every time more emphasis is put on three days out of 15.I might be below zero for the third night in a row, don't see any reference to that, of course not, a 53,rainy day in 12 days matters more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 why would I, that's done to scare Kevin who is afraid of his snow melting. I am grounded enough to know snow melts in SNE every month. I do find it odd that every time more emphasis is put on three days out of 15.I might be below zero for the third night in a row, don't see any reference to that, of course not, a 53,rainy day in 12 days matters more.Naw, snow doesn't melt in SNE in July, unless it's on a refrigerated truck.But seriously, a week early but good call on the thaw. Hopefully the end of your forecast is right too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oh yeah, and after the bang, I'd love a torch please. This talk of a cold summer is making me nauseous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Naw, snow doesn't melt in SNE in July, unless it's on a refrigerated truck. But seriously, a week early but good call on the thaw. Hopefully the end of your forecast is right too... Thanks its been fun and a learning process for me doing it. I know exactly what I did wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 flame-thrower torch incoming. c'est la vie, let's melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like another light-mod event depicted on the Euro with the clipper on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like another light-mod event depicted on the Euro with the clipper on SaturdayGgem has led the way with thatSent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I feel like its sacrilegious around here to say this but several days of warm wx would be nice. Although not as intense as the cold in January, this spell feels more "chilled to the bone". Next week we torch, melt all the snow, and then move on to a grand finale in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I feel like its sacrilegious around here to say this but several days of warm wx would be nice. Although not as intense as the cold in January, this spell feels more "chilled to the bone". Next week we torch, melt all the snow, and then move on to a grand finale in March. I'm hopeful we can salvage some snowpack. As Will alluded to..if it's a couple days of 55-60/25 we'd be ok..just can't do it with a rainer and dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm hopeful we can salvage some snowpack. As Will alluded to..if it's a couple days of 55-60/25 we'd be ok..just can't do it with a rainer and dews You're going bare ground. Embrace it. Winters end is in site now as we move towards spring. Big first half of March with tons of snow coming IMHO. But alas, by march snow retention is weak so enjoy the events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You're going bare ground. Embrace it. Winters end is in site now as we move towards spring. Big first half of March with tons of snow coming IMHO. But alas, by march snow retention is weak so enjoy the events. We'll see. After this one we'll have over 20 of ice and high water content and then we've got the moderate event over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We'll see. After this one we'll have over 20 of ice and high water content and then we've got the moderate event over the weekend. Say what? You got like 9-10 last week....some has to be lopped off. You're not getting 14. But if you do, you may survive. My pack has been stubbornly resistant to melting as well but a late February torch is like one 10 degrees warmer near the solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Say what? You got like 9-10 last week....some has to be lopped off. You're not getting 14. But if you do, you may survive. My pack has been stubbornly resistant to melting as well but a late February torch is like one 10 degrees warmer near the solstice. I had 4 last Monday..10.5 Wednesday 1.5 Sun nite There's 12-13 OTG now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I feel like its sacrilegious around here to say this but several days of warm wx would be nice. Although not as intense as the cold in January, this spell feels more "chilled to the bone". Next week we torch, melt all the snow, and then move on to a grand finale in March. Yeah, mine will most definitely be mostly gone after warm-up. About 6" otg right now that will probably be a net 0 after tomorrows storm. Maybe I gain some this weekend. I'm actually looking forward to Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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