CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You could say the milder wx starts near the 19-20 with the very mild wx perhaps 21-23. Probably ends 24-26 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So what are dates of potential snows before the wipeout ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So what are dates of potential snows before the wipeout ? Well I mentioned them. After Thursday there is Saturday which may be more NNE, but still something...then possibly something Monday ish (although the risk of that is getting shoved too far south) and then perhaps next Tuesday and then Friday before the torch. It's possible none may work out....just a few to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Energy mets all ending winter after the 20th. Saying Mjo wins and we Morch I don't like to call things until they happen and there's plenty of time of things to change around. I'm selfishly rooting for colder than normal as I'm going to be starting my maple season two weeks late in early March and I'd like a few weeks of good weather. Then again, that's so far out that by the time it gets here we'll have an entirely different outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well I mentioned them. After Thursday there is Saturday which may be more NNE, but still something...then possibly something Monday ish (although the risk of that is getting shoved too far south) and then perhaps next Tuesday and then Friday before the torch. It's possible none may work out....just a few to watch. You have better access to guidance than I do - is there any chance that the torch becomes more muted as as happened other times in the past few months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You have better access to guidance than I do - is there any chance that the torch becomes more muted as as happened other times in the past few months? We we have had some pretty bad torch periods. They weren't all muted. I suppose it could be shortened by a day or so, but it will come IMHO. Whether it's 2-3 days or 4-5 days remains to be seen..but my guess is at least a few well AN days. On the other hand, I think we reload again too. It won't be epic cold perhaps like January as we are warming up climo wise..but a pattern perhaps more conducive to winter wx would be a better choice of words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty safe to say a week of 50s and 60s is off the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty safe to say a week of 50s and 60s is off the table I don't think it's safe to say that at all. Surely a 3-5 day period of 50's at minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't think it's safe to say that at all. Surely a 3-5 day period of 50's at minimumgoal post shrink post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 goal post shrink post Initially your first few posts were saying no torch and a few days of climo normal. So you've come full circle at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Initially your first few posts were saying no torch and a few days of climo normal. So you've come full circle at leastfirst posts said 3-4 day thaw mid 40's, good to see the muted look on all Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 They are not muted. EC ensembles support 50s at least in low elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not sure where muted comes from but when it's 60 degrees next Saturday I don't think anyone's rap music blaring out windows down will be muted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Doesn't look TOO bad on the 18z GFS.. (The Torch that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Again for the reading challenged, muted as in LENGTH and lol on the GFS, helluva way to end a thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Never understood the obsession with 3 warm days out of 15, FYI those 53,degree days are cloudy and rainy, get out the Frisbee and boom boxes and bounce them off the 18-24 glacier on the ground, clear a circle on the quad with a snowblower and play hacky sack. It's not always about 850s and 5h,un like an administrator once told me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Again for the reading challenged, muted as in LENGTH and lol on the GFS, helluva way to end a thaw. That was the question I was asking. I didn't have access to some data at the time and I guess my question was interpreted as meaning it would be warm. By then we're in late February and records above 60 aren't that big of a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That was the question I was asking. I didn't have access to some data at the time and I guess my question was interpreted as meaning it would be warm. By then we're in late February and records above 60 aren't that big of a deal. Well the idea is 3 to maybe 5 days or so AN. Perhaps 2 well AN. I suppose it could always be cut short by a day, but all in all the 11-15 day is probably AN with at least 2 days well AN. That's the way it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Still a couple of shots..perhaps 3 if they work out for snow before the warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the Friday night /Sat clipper has gained legs and could drop more snow that absolutley noone in the public is expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Keeps pushing the torch back, now the 22nd, and it's a rainy torch couple days before strong CF, helluva way to run a week of 50s and 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Keeps pushing the torch back, now the 22nd, and it's a rainy torch couple days before strong CF, helluva way to run a week of 50s and 60s if you want to keep any little bit of snow..you'd better hope it's a sunny, dry torch with 55-60/20..and not 54/50 with rain and fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 if you want to keep any little bit of snow..you'd better hope it's a sunny, dry torch with 55-60/20..and not 54/50 with rain and fog Yep, I'd prefer a couple 56F days with dewpoints near freezing...that won't do a lot of damage to a 20" snowpack with 2 inches of water in it (assuming we get at least 6-8" of paste in this next one)..maybe compress/melt it down to about 14-16". Not sure we get that lucky though...we might get something worse for at least a day, but hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 if you want to keep any little bit of snow..you'd better hope it's a sunny, dry torch with 55-60/20..and not 54/50 with rain and fogI really don't care if it rains for a day at 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I really don't care if it rains for a day at 53. If you don't want to be looking at mud and grass you should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS op is a furnace P day weekend. Lots of frisbees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The la-la land op gfs is hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z GGEM for Saturday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Love the reload on all Ens, so we end up with 3-4 days AN out of what now is twenty days since we started talking about this. Awesome and the fact two-three snow events are in the cards just fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What that ... you must be kidding us! This would support temperature in the 90s in Texas, and it is only a D6 chart on the 12z Euro. I mentioned this in a post last week; this happens ...more typically in later February (but close enough).. You see the season suddenly change to spring in the deep S, while winter hands up along 40 N. This is an extreme version of that, but it is air apparent nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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