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February General Model/Pattern Discussion Thread


NJwinter23

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So what are dates of potential snows before the wipeout ?

 

Well I mentioned them. After Thursday there is Saturday which may be more NNE, but still something...then possibly something Monday ish (although the risk of that is getting shoved too far south) and then perhaps next Tuesday and then Friday before the torch. It's possible none may work out....just a few to watch.

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Energy mets all ending winter after the 20th. Saying Mjo wins and we Morch

 

I don't like to call things until they happen and there's plenty of time of things to change around.  I'm selfishly rooting for colder than normal as I'm going to be starting my maple season two weeks late in early March and I'd like a few weeks of good weather.  Then again, that's so far out that by the time it gets here we'll have an entirely different outlook.

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Well I mentioned them. After Thursday there is Saturday which may be more NNE, but still something...then possibly something Monday ish (although the risk of that is getting shoved too far south) and then perhaps next Tuesday and then Friday before the torch. It's possible none may work out....just a few to watch.

 

You have better access to guidance than I do - is there any chance that the torch becomes more muted as as happened other times in the past few months?

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You have better access to guidance than I do - is there any chance that the torch becomes more muted as as happened other times in the past few months?

 

We we have had some pretty bad torch periods. They weren't all muted. I suppose it could be shortened by a day or so, but it will come IMHO. Whether it's 2-3 days or 4-5 days remains to be seen..but my guess is at least a few well AN days. On the other hand, I think we reload again too. It won't be epic cold perhaps like January as we are warming up climo wise..but a pattern perhaps more conducive to winter wx would be a better choice of words.

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Never understood the obsession with 3 warm days out of 15, FYI those 53,degree days are cloudy and rainy, get out the Frisbee and boom boxes and bounce them off the 18-24 glacier on the ground, clear a circle on the quad with a snowblower and play hacky sack. It's not always about 850s and 5h,un like an administrator once told me

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Again for the reading challenged, muted as in LENGTH and lol on the GFS, helluva way to end a thaw.

 

That was the question I was asking.  I didn't have access to some data at the time and I guess my question was interpreted as meaning it would be warm.  By then we're in late February and records above 60 aren't that big of a deal.

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That was the question I was asking.  I didn't have access to some data at the time and I guess my question was interpreted as meaning it would be warm.  By then we're in late February and records above 60 aren't that big of a deal.

 

Well the idea is 3 to maybe 5 days or so AN. Perhaps 2 well AN. I suppose it could always be cut short by a day, but all in all the 11-15 day is probably AN with at least 2 days well AN. That's the way it looks right now. 

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if you want to keep any little bit of snow..you'd better hope it's a sunny, dry torch with 55-60/20..and not 54/50 with rain and fog

 

 

Yep, I'd prefer a couple 56F days with dewpoints near freezing...that won't do a lot of damage to a 20" snowpack with 2 inches of water in it (assuming we get at least 6-8" of paste in this next one)..maybe compress/melt it down to about 14-16".

 

Not sure we get that lucky though...we might get something worse for at least a day, but hopefully not.

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What that ...   you must be kidding us!  This would support temperature in the 90s in Texas, and it is only a D6 chart on the 12z Euro. 

 

I mentioned this in a post last week; this happens ...more typically in later February (but close enough).. You see the season suddenly change to spring in the deep S, while winter hands up along 40 N. 

 

This is an extreme version of that, but it is air apparent nonetheless.

 

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