NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well if you retro the ridge, you flip the EPO and introduce more zonal flow potentially. There is some agreement for that near mid month...but I can't argue with persistence. I just don't see a reason to disagree much with the current pattern we are in and even if this did shift west....it may only be temporary. This pattern ironically could fit the WP correlation for Feb well. If the ridge does retro you would think it furnaces us with zonal flow, but no so fast. The correlation in Feb for a -WP February is some troughing in the east and SW ridging which the GEFS have. I still think the EC is too PAC jet happy and I'm sticking with that. Big turnaround in the 12z GFS today. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/correlation/corr.test1.pl?iregr=1&var=Geopotential+Height&level=500mb&mon1=2&mon2=2&iy%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&ilead=0&ilag=0&type=6&timefile=&customtitle=&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&cint=&lowr=&highr=&scale=&switch=0&proj=Northern+Hemisphere&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot Wouldnt that be something if that ended up being the case and we got cold -WPO/+EPO/+PNA style. The correlations to WPO are fairly weak as that map shows denoting the further removed West Pac from the U.S... We've seen both phases of the WPO this winter and it was cold either way (particularly on a national scale). Late Dec through much of Jan was mostly +WPO but with +PNA/-EPO holding strong, we were cold...first half of Dec the entire North Pac sector was favorable obviously with -EPO retrograding to -WPO and -PNA mostly ...The latter is very familiar to the pattern we see playing out again into early Feb...The Gulf of Alaska signals at the end of 11-15 day are reminiscent of that period we had around the 15th to 20th of Dec, which lead to a mini warm stretch, but ended up short lived with -EPO returning..gut tells me thats what would happen again if these gulf of alaska trends are real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah agree Chris. The first image is classic for getting the cold into the Plains, but then you have a SE ridge. Now shift around the trough/ride axis and orientation to a +wp but also -EPO you you lose the SE ridge and drive the cold right into the deep south. I guess what I mean is that I could see more of a Dec type deal with that WP setup. Maybe not quite the composite as the Feb correlation shows...and I agree it is weak...but I'm not sold on a complete zonal torch flow. Even if it were to happen, it probably would not last long as you said. The GEFS just sort of made sense to me as the EC has tried to break everything down too quickly...but even as I speak the EC is still insistent on the whole thing moving west and warming things up considerable south of 40N which might throw my theory out the window. Models so far also seemed to happy driving the MJO into the COD on the dynamic plots...but those dual cyclones may also be screwing around with those. May have to watch the IO stuff...perhaps the EC is "seeing" that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 BTV seems to think we may taint up here: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ANDAWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME W-NWFOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN ORSNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA. PARTIAL CLEARING ISEXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNFROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTEDWITH WSW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TOSLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THAT TIME. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SOMESIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLYTHURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME WITHTRACK OF LOW. LOW WILL TRACK ALONG OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAYNIGHT...THEN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THENSLOWLY EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER IN THE FORECAST.LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW TUESDAYNIGHT...THEN THERE MAY BE A BIT OF WARM AIR CAUSING A MIX OFPRECIP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SYSTEM WILL END WITH SNOW AGAIN ONWEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ATTHIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah agree Chris. The first image is classic for getting the cold into the Plains, but then you have a SE ridge. Now shift around the trough/ride axis and orientation to a +wp but also -EPO you you lose the SE ridge and drive the cold right into the deep south. I guess what I mean is that I could see more of a Dec type deal with that WP setup. Maybe not quite the composite as the Feb correlation shows...and I agree it is weak...but I'm not sold on a complete zonal torch flow. Even if it were to happen, it probably would not last long as you said. The GEFS just sort of made sense to me as the EC has tried to break everything down too quickly...but even as I speak the EC is still insistent on the whole thing moving west and warming things up considerable south of 40N which might throw my theory out the window. Models so far also seemed to happy driving the MJO into the COD on the dynamic plots...but those dual cyclones may also be screwing around with those. May have to watch the IO stuff...perhaps the EC is "seeing" that. Yep, and lets not forget how warm it got on a few days in late Dec...I think we hit 70 in NY pre-Xmas...so i guess the point is mainly not that it cant or wont get warm for a time, but we agree on being skeptical of any longevity suggested for a GOA trough given this season... As far as the tropics go, I messed those up earlier this month when I was speculating on late Jan/early Feb so I'm not gonna venture too deep into it. Theyve been confusing to handle this year (for me at least) but that's not to belittle the importance they've played on this winter pattern. Here we have the MJO divergence wave as diagnosed by ventrice's site entering the IO so yeah, we'll see I guess...any forcing in the phase 2-3 part of the IO is a cold signal in the east by mis-Feb too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yep, and lets not forget how warm it got on a few days in late Dec...I think we hit 70 in NY pre-Xmas...so i guess the point is mainly not that it cant or wont get warm for a time, but we agree on being skeptical of any longevity suggested for a GOA trough given this season... As far as the tropics go, I messed those up earlier this month when I was speculating on late Jan/early Feb so I'm not gonna venture too deep into it. Theyve been confusing to handle this year (for me at least) but that's not to belittle the importance they've played on this winter pattern. Here we have the MJO divergence wave as diagnosed by ventrice's site entering the IO so yeah, we'll see I guess...any forcing in the phase 2-3 part of the IO is a cold signal in the east by mis-Feb too. Good point. I'm not an MJO expert either lol..but hey...is anyone really? Good disco....stop by here more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Feb 3 threat is nearing thread-worthiness. Do the euro ensembles agree? 18z NAM looks robust in cuckoo range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Feb 3 threat is nearing thread-worthiness. Do the euro ensembles agree? 18z NAM looks robust in cuckoo range Yep, keeping an eye on this one, coming back full circle, lets see how it evolves over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The Feb 3 threat is nearing thread-worthiness. Do the euro ensembles agree? 18z NAM looks robust in cuckoo range The euro ensembles really don't side with the op for Monday. I still think it's nothing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The euro ensembles really don't side with the op for Monday. I still think it's nothing really. The GFS has it completely suppressed if I recall correctly. The NAM, meanwhile... where do I start? The OP Euro from this afternoon is probably going to end up being the closest dart on the board, but something between that and the 12z GFS is my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Tonight's gfs run is a beaut. Way colder for the d5-6 event. Mostly snow even in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Tonight's gfs run is a beaut. Way colder for the d5-6 event. Mostly snow even in BOS.Gives the Euro the middle finger thats for sure. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Trees through the forest stuff, NAM hi res pumps out some snow showers WAA snows tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Gives the Euro the middle finger thats for sure. Wow. Actually it doesn't. Euro at the same init is similar and in fact enhances 2/3 and tells the gfs to lay off the bong 2/9...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Actually it doesn't. Euro at the same init is similar and in fact enhances 2/3 and tells the gfs to lay off the bong 2/9...lol. Haha, speaking of the 2/9 system...the GGEM is ready to go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The EC ensembles are ugly near the end and flood the country with PAC air. I thought maybe they've been too aggressive all along, but they won't let go of the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The EC ensembles are ugly near the end and flood the country with PAC air. I thought maybe they've been too aggressive all along, but they won't let go of the idea. They're alone in that concept correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 They're alone in that concept correct? Several of the analog patterns have a period of warmth in the D14-18 range...so I would not be shocked to see the EC ensmebles start hinting at more warmth for the Feb 15-20 period as we get closer. That's getting pretty far out there, but it is certainly a possibility. But I won't harp on it in this thread since this one is just through the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 They're alone in that concept correct? It wouldn't be shocking...its gotta moderate for at least a period at some point, right? A bunch of the GFS op runs have been showing some warming towards the end of the runs, too. Even if its just a 3-5 day relaxation before a reload of chill drops back into the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 They're alone in that concept correct? That should be in the other thread. They are the most aggressive, but something to watch. The weeklies were mild week 3 and then got cold again which I could see for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It wouldn't be shocking...its gotta moderate for at least a period at some point, right? A bunch of the GFS op runs have been showing some warming towards the end of the runs, too. Even if its just a 3-5 day relaxation before a reload of chill drops back into the U.S. Yeah I think this is good thinking. We can't stay bone chilling cold forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll continue this from the other thread since it was my mistake for posting it there. Jerry its certainly tough to sustain this pattern. The GEFS offer the same idea, but like NJwinter and I were discussing yeaterday, it supports more of a -WP patten which is rather active and stormy. So it remains to be seen what happens. To me, I thought the EC was too aggressive as it Sometimes has a retrogression bias, but it's stubborn. Anyways, that's something to look at next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 For all, just a reminder, new moon week this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My thoughts of the Pattern repost for Feb Posted 08 January 2014 - 09:55 AM experimental and for fun WE 01/25/14 Continued well below normal with possible large area snow storm 1/22-1/24 possible significant clipper on the 25th -4 to -6 W/E 02/01/11 Continued well below normal with possible coastal snow storm 1/28-1/30 , entire country is cold to end the month -4 to -6 W/E 02/08/14 Brief warm up 2/3 with an interior snow storm 4/5 cold then the thaw begins 2/7 0 to+2 W/E 2/15/14 Much warmer than normal through the NE thaw week with rain interior possible ice interior way above normal, +4 to +6 W/E 2/22/14 return to normal with moderate snows around the 19th 20th and 22/23rd 0 to -1 W/E 3/1/14 month ends with a bang with a big coastal storm, may be suppressed SNE , MA best then vodka cold -5 to -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll continue this from the other thread since it was my mistake for posting it there. Jerry its certainly tough to sustain this pattern. The GEFS offer the same idea, but like NJwinter and I were discussing yeaterday, it supports more of a -WP patten which is rather active and stormy. So it remains to be seen what happens. To me, I thought the EC was too aggressive as it Sometimes has a retrogression bias, but it's stubborn. Anyways, that's something to look at next week. Just my take...but I think the GFS has all the signs of flooding at least the western 2/3 of the country with more mild air at the end of the period too. It's not really there yet, but it has that look. The idea of driving a powerful low through the Gulf of AK towards BC has been there for some time and usually that's step 1. The consensus has seemed to be all along that there would be a great first 15 days and some relaxing mid month, so this isn't much of a surprise. As you said, TBD on how much of a pattern relief we actually see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My thoughts of the Pattern repost for Feb Posted 08 January 2014 - 09:55 AM experimental and for fun WE 01/25/14 Continued well below normal with possible large area snow storm 1/22-1/24 possible significant clipper on the 25th -4 to -6 W/E 02/01/11 Continued well below normal with possible coastal snow storm 1/28-1/30 , entire country is cold to end the month -4 to -6 W/E 02/08/14 Brief warm up 2/3 with an interior snow storm 4/5 cold then the thaw begins 2/7 0 to+2 W/E 2/15/14 Much warmer than normal through the NE thaw week with rain interior possible ice interior way above normal, +4 to +6 W/E 2/22/14 return to normal with moderate snows around the 19th 20th and 22/23rd 0 to -1 W/E 3/1/14 month ends with a bang with a big coastal storm, may be suppressed SNE , MA best then vodka cold -5 to -7 You thoughts on this season have been solid...very good job... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You thoughts on this season have been solid...very good job... Thanks, have had a couple of missteps mainly in timing transitions but not bad for my first attempt I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll continue this from the other thread since it was my mistake for posting it there. Jerry its certainly tough to sustain this pattern. The GEFS offer the same idea, but like NJwinter and I were discussing yeaterday, it supports more of a -WP patten which is rather active and stormy. So it remains to be seen what happens. To me, I thought the EC was too aggressive as it Sometimes has a retrogression bias, but it's stubborn. Anyways, that's something to look at next week. Well maybe it was too aggressive. This run of the ensemble definitely cooled off. It's just one run, but maybe it's correcting itself a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well maybe it was too aggressive. This run of the ensemble definitely cooled off. It's just one run, but maybe it's correcting itself a bit here. The WPO- in February is colder for Northeast US and SE Canada relatively speaking than earlier in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The WPO- in February is colder for Northeast US and SE Canada relatively speaking than earlier in the winter. Yeah I was looking at the correlations yesterday. GEFs actually fit the look well when I was talking with NJwinter yesterday. I think we will have troughing in AK, but if we can get some weak ridging over the SW, then it probably would mean troughing could setup in the Midwest or northeast. Just don't want that zonal firehose coming in. Interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z doesn't look too appealing with the 2/9 potential system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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