valkhorn Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 12Z GFS is putting one hell of a negatively tilted low around the 180h timeframe near our area. Could this be our storm showing up on the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro virtually identical to 0z for this storm. 850 freezing line barely dips into the far NW tip of the state, surface is freezing almost to Nashville as the precip moves through. Memphis to just north of Nashville and west get in on the frozen stuff with Dyersburg, Paris, and Clarksville looking the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the storm might be too far north for me to get the bigger snow totals, but i will take what i can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the storm might be too far north for me to get the bigger snow totals, but i will take what i can get. I agree. I am just south of you in Kingsport. We have posters up here from Kingsport, Churchill, JC, and Greeneville. Glad to see Clintwood being represented here. Always like seeing that neck of the woods on highlights tonight on WCYB. Anyway, southwest Virginia could see a little freezing rain at some point. Nothing big. Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 JKL with the Winter Storm Watch. This is for an area about 10 miles from me. I missed the 3-5 inch totals being about 15-20 miles too far North and West last week. Maybe miss it by being too far South by 10-20 miles this week. Either way, I'm not home til Monday afternoon anyway. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY307 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014...HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING....A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KENTUCKY LATE SUNDAY. ANAREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRACKFAIRLY CLOSE TO THE KENTUCKY/VIRGINIA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...PRODUCINGWIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILEPRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN FOR MANY...THE RAIN WILLCHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROMNORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAYNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES INMANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.IN ADDITION...THE NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL BE VERY HEAVY ANDWET...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES AND KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS.KYZ080-084>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-020400-/O.NEW.KJKL.WS.A.0001.140203T0200Z-140203T1500Z/LAUREL-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONDON...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ307 PM EST SAT FEB 1 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAYMORNING.* RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSISTTHROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE COMING TO AN END MONDAY MORNING. ABRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF CHANGEOVER.* SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES...WITH A FEWISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 OHX also bullish for snow from their Northern Plateau areas around Jamestown and points South and West. ...WINTER WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE SUNDAYAFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT....A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHTFOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A WAVEOF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTNORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILLSPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE SUNDAY AFTERNOONCHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW AND SLEET SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEESUNDAY NIGHT.TNZ008>011-025>034-056-057-059-062-064-020315-/O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0007.140203T0000Z-140203T1200Z/SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-WILLIAMSON-RUTHERFORD-DE KALB-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...MURFREESBORO...SMITHVILLE101 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CSTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PMSUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY.* EVENT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.* TIMING...6 PM CST SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM CST MONDAY.* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS AND LIMIT VISIBILITIES.HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 My forecast says rain to freezing rain to sleet and snow mixed with freezing rain with a low of 29 Sunday night. But MRX says it will only last about 6 hours and there's no reason for anything more than the HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I hope Middle TN gets that snow. I have two little nephews(ex in a way) in Gallatin/Hendersonville (right on the line) and they never get to play in the snow. Their subdivision has a really big hill that dead ends right at their house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Pulling for Nashville and points west of the Plateau to score on this one. Looks like the models are showing a good set-up if the temps will cooperate. Freezing rain and snow. Very much the December pattern redux, a tad further east. Good luck and you all better post some pics if it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm surprised everyone is so strong on the snow forecasts. The models are showing much more of a wintry mix every where for the most part. As I said, even my forecast says the rain will briefly mix then change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm surprised everyone is so strong on the snow forecasts. The models are showing much more of a wintry mix every where for the most part. As I said, even my forecast says the rain will briefly mix then change to snow. John, I wonder if they are counting on some good rates to change it over to snow. I also think that the NWS is being very cautious after what happened in Atlanta. Again, I didn't feel that was their fault. Could be worried about rush hour Monday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'll be very interested to here obs once this gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I agree. I am just south of you in Kingsport. We have posters up here from Kingsport, Churchill, JC, and Greeneville. Glad to see Clintwood being represented here. Always like seeing that neck of the woods on highlights tonight on WCYB. Anyway, southwest Virginia could see a little freezing rain at some point. Nothing big. Welcome to the board! Thanks, appreciate it! Yeah, might squeak out an inch+ unless we see some sort of coup out of it. Looks like could have a few miner icing issues, hopefully nothing big. If we do see something I'll see if i can post some pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 John, I wonder if they are counting on some good rates to change it over to snow. I also think that the NWS is being very cautious after what happened in Atlanta. Again, I didn't feel that was their fault. Could be worried about rush hour Monday AM. I honestly don't know what they're looking at for my area. My skew-t has surface temps of around freezing but 850s are 5+c. Not good rates will change that over. It's even warm down to 925, so I don't even see sleet coming from the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM is a slopfest. NW TN does ok w/ the 0z run tonight. HP sliding over the top may help middle TN. Generally, not a great run for middle TN. Not trying to be the bearer of bad news. We are hoping you all score some wintery weather this month or next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Precip maps, grain of salt, etc. 0z NAM snow: 0z High-res NAM snow: 0z RGEM snow: 0z RGEM sleet: 0z RGEM freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM is a slopfest. NW TN does ok w/ the 0z run tonight. HP sliding over the top may help middle TN. Generally, not a great run for middle TN. Not trying to be the bearer of bad news. We are hoping you all score some wintery weather this month or next. Yeah the question is where the upper level cold is.We could get anything here from a decent snowfall to just ip and zr to just even cool rain.There isn't any solution that looks set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 WWA for parts of East Tennessee and SW VA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN315 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014...ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNINGACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS....SUB FREEZING AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAUAND THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA LATER TONIGHTAFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND THEFREEZING MARK...SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERTHE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING.TNZ012>015-035-VAZ001-002-021615-/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0007.140203T0500Z-140203T1700Z/SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-LEE-WISE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...WARTBURG...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON315 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TONOON MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MONDAY.* EVENT...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED.* TIMING...BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LINGERING THROUGHMONDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATEDROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR ICE COVERED ROADS ANDLIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOWEXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z NAM snowfall, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Shifting last minute back toward the Euro from last night and the past few days? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 150 mile shift southeast and we would be in business. Any thing look like that might happen? 12z NAM snowfall, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is so tiring. Year after year storm after storm is the same. I have to move North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 dont see nothing but ip and zr but ive noticed our temps continue to fall,down to 35 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN1043 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.AS OF 10AM...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM JUSTNORTH OF NASHVILLE AND BACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE MAJORITYOF THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPIWHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN MONROE COUNTY.THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FOR A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHMOVES THROUGH THE REGION.WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS THIS MORNING OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NEARJONESBORO AND SOME SNOW REPORTED NEAR POCAHONTAS IN NORTHEASTARKANSAS. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES TOBELOW FREEZING IN THAT REGION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURESIN THAT AREA ARE ALREADY HOVERING NEAR FREEZING SO MIXEDPRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE COOLER AIR ARRIVESLATER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE MAINLY RAIN IS FALLING WHERETEMPERATURES ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. COOLER AIRWILL FILTER AFTER ABOUT 5PM AND THAT IS WHEN A CHANGEOVER TOSLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTHEASTARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. FOR THIS...A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED PREVIOUSLY AND CONTINUES TOREMAIN IN EFFECT.ALREADY CONSIDERING ADDING A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES TO THE SOUTHERNTIER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ICING/SLEET ANDWATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY SNOW FALLING IN FAR NORTHEASTTENNESSEE AFTER ABOUT 10 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SITUATIONCLOSELY AND REEVALUATE BY THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Jax, is that a typo, why would NWS Mwmphis be watching for heavy snow in north EAST TN? I assume they meant northwest. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Jax, is that a typo, why would NWS Mwmphis be watching for heavy snow in north EAST TN? I assume they meant northwest. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk haha..just noticed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Jax, is that a typo, why would NWS Mwmphis be watching for heavy snow in north EAST TN? I assume they meant northwest. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I wonder if they meant far ne west TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like the far NW tip of TN is changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like Memphis, Dyersburg, and Union City may have changed over to frozen. Any obs out that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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