Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 West TN looks icy on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 HP to the N,more than likely IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Precip type at hour 72: Somehow, the snow algorithm cranked out this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The meteograms for the 12z runs are impressive for some areas. Memphis NAM - 0.7 inches of snow GFS - 6.6 inches of snow, 0.17 inches of freezing rain Nashville NAM - A little bit of sleet GFS - 4.4 inches of snow, a little bit of freezing rain and sleet Knoxville NAM - 1.4 inches of snow GFS - Nothing Tri Cities NAM - 8 inches of snow GFS - 0.24 inches of freezing rain Note that those snow amounts are 11:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GGEM for this event: Snow: Sleet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Stove - The CMC is garbage. Its not even worth posting it. You might as well throw up the NOGAPs. GFS and EURO GEFS mean and occasionally the UKie are all you really need for globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Stove - The CMC is garbage. Its not even worth posting it. You might as well throw up the NOGAPs. GFS and EURO GEFS mean and occasionally the UKie are all you really need for globals. I'm looking for consistency anywhere I can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z RGEM (which did great for the last storm) Hour 48 freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow....did u guys see what mrx posted for a hwo?...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY PULLING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...GULF MOISTURE WILL PULL NORTH AND OVER-RUN THE COLD AIR PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A MIXTURE OF SNOW..SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...NORTHERN HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow....did u guys see what mrx posted for a hwo? ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY PULLING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...GULF MOISTURE WILL PULL NORTH AND OVER-RUN THE COLD AIR PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A MIXTURE OF SNOW..SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...NORTHERN HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. As bad as they have been, I'd rather them NOT be on the snow train at this point..........lol Interesting discussion though and the setup IS there, but with much higher than normal BUST potential. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Euro, just doesn't look ideal to me at all for anything but some ice or perhaps sleet. 850 temps are above 0 everywhere but the very northwestern tip of the state and even there it's only freezing for one frame (hour 72). Surface temps are good for west/middle TN until hour 78, then into the 40s. This run seems a bit wetter than 0z. Regardless of what the snow maps show, this run looks like a period of freezing rain or sleet for west to middle TN. East TN doesn't even have a chance from what I see. Accumulated "snow": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So the snow dome is intact for ten this run of European Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The temps are so marginal with this event, I think it's very much up in the air as to what kind of precip type we'll see where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 How likely do you think it is that they become cutters to the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The happy hour NAM ensures that tradition holds and John's house gets a good thump of snow while he's in Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Been watching this forum for year or so now, actually decided to join for once lol. Love the map from the NAM Stovepipe, but it just cuts off where I live, what exactly is it showing for the northern half of SW VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Been watching this forum for year or so now, actually decided to join for once lol. Love the map from the NAM Stovepipe, but it just cuts off where I live, what exactly is it showing for the northern half of SW VA? Very glad you joined us Cotton! It's the NAM so understand that it is liable to change quite a bit between now and the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The happy hour NAM ensures that tradition holds and John's house gets a good thump of snow while he's in Chattanooga. Dammit! Snow hole right over my house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Very glad you joined us Cotton! It's the NAM so understand that it is liable to change quite a bit between now and the event. Sweet! Thanks, and yeah, I take all the models with varying grains of salt. Gonna have to watch it close, going to affect my travel plans a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 It has worked for years now. No reason why it wouldn't this time too. Should be a fun trip home Monday with the different wintry types that are possible between Chattanooga and home. The happy hour NAM ensures that tradition holds and John's house gets a good thump of snow while he's in Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I imagine quite a few snow starved folks would like to see the 0z NAM snow map come true. Hope it pans out for middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I am rooting for you guys over in mid TN. It's likely a situation that will go down to the wire .....so keep expectations low and if you get hit, GREAT, and if you are missed, just roll with it! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I imagine quite a few snow starved folks would like to see the 0z NAM snow map come true. Hope it pans out for middle TN. This would be very nice to see come to fruition. You can tell the local weatherpeeps are very wary about it, though wcyb's Dave Dierks is showing for far northwestern swva around 2-6 inches.Though i would be driving in it to work, sorta drooling at the thoughts of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Stovepipe, don't faint, but... Matt Hinkin @Hinkmologist 50m Have a great weekend. We will keep you updated on our winter mix chances for Monday morning. pic.twitter.com/Tr7ACKk2CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 That is extremely aggressive winter forecasting for Hinkin. So far every NAM run is being quite nice to my area. HPC is backing off on both the snow and freezing rain progs for us all though. Not much would surprise me at this point although I'd probably guess rain is more likely East of Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like North of 40 and Crossville West is the spot to be in here as of this morning. I have a high change of a wintry mess back home. More snow west and north of my area. MRX seems to think their non-Plateau areas are out of the running. JKL says a good shot of 3-6 inches for their CWA south of I-64, OHX is giving high likely snow for a good part of their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 John or anybody..Does this meteogram from KJKL show anywhere between 7 or 8 inches of snow..Also does freezing rain show 0.027...This is only the Nam and GFS..Just trying to learn a few things.. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kjkl&nam=on&gfs=on&ratio=11&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 bna disco said 1-3 NW..1-2..around Nashville..... 1/2" extreme SE with .10 ice http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Stovepipe, don't faint, but... Matt Hinkin @Hinkmologist 50m Have a great weekend. We will keep you updated on our winter mix chances for Monday morning. pic.twitter.com/Tr7ACKk2CD I'm getting the vapors... where is my fainting couch? LOL This is looking more and more like a non-event for east TN and a potentially significant ice event for west TN into middle. The NAM and RGEM both seem on board with that. The GFS meteogram for Jackson even has over 1 inch of ice. I imagine a lot of schools will be closed on Monday even if it ends up looking like a marginal situation closer to go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The SREF suggests a NW TN special as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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